Light card tonight. I'm playing this....

Central Florida -7, 1st half, 1*
Lafayette makes this road trip to Orlando after taking the last 11 days off for Finals. Eleven days without a game can impart a little rust to a team, at least early in their first game back. Central Florida, on the other hand, is coming off a home loss to Mississippi last Saturday. I suspect they will come out of the box with a little fire in their eyes. This is a first half situational play expecting UCF to come out with a little bounce-back momentum and ULL to come out with a little rust. Hopefully, this combination will be enough to help UCF grab an early lead. I make this line 15 for the game, so I see this number as a fair one. I’m not interested in laying double digits for any game unless I’m backing a team that has demonstrated it can keep and extend big leads. UCF hasn’t quite done that to my liking so a play on UCF for the game doesn’t make the cut.

Wisconsin -13.5 at Wis-Mil

Milwaukee is the worst team in the Horizon. They have kicked their best player off the team and have already dropped their first two conference games against middle of the pack competition.

Drake -1 at Iowa

2-2 here so far. I don't like Iowa at all this year and I think they will get worse as the year progresses. Drake is going to make some noise in the MVC and Iowa has already lost to UNI. I LOVE Drake tonight

Good, err...I mean Bad Mahi Mahi, great call on this game. Is Dr. Tom still coaching Drake or did he retire last year? I think maybe his son took over. It's all very fuzzy....

It's all about good line shopping. I got Iowa +3 this morning. When Freeman played at UNI, they looked like a different team. I thought with him playing tonight, I'd take the perntz with the Hawkeyes and hope they play 6 points better than they did without him. He isn't doing much though...and the game is going to the wire. Maybe it will land drake 2 and we'll both win. And by the way Dolphin, the Hawks beat UNI at Cedar Falls in the only game Freeman played. Then he sat out last Saturday and they lost in Ames to ISU.

And by the way, Ryan, Dr. Tom's son Keno is the Drake coach. Who names their kid Keno anyway? If I'm going to name a kid after a gambling game, wouldn't Black Jack be a better choice?

Try to avoid "slot machine" for daughters.

Saturday: UIC +9 @ DePaul
The Demons were bickering among themselves the other night vs. Vandy. Their lack of discipline cost them in losing the lead vs. Vandy. They are way too undisciplined to back as chalk. Flames aren't as talented, but Jimmy will a lot more out of his bunch than Wainwright gets out of his. Wainwright will implore and his instruct his bunch, but as usual they probably won't listen to him.

3-2

St. Louis -8.5 against Loyola

I really do not like the way the Ramblers have been playing, and that has been at home. Loyola tends to crap the bed on the road and I expect them to do it again tonight.

Central Michigan -3.5 at Wis. Mil.

The news keeps getting worse for UWM. The leading rebounder and scorer has now been kicked off the team. I think I might play against them in every game until they prove me wrong.

Saturday
Texas +5 (buy 1/2) vs. Michigan State @ Palace of Auburn Hills, 2**
Texas' win in Pauley Pavilion is the most impressive thing I've seen this season. DJ Augustin is the best player I've seen this season. Will Texas play at that same high level today? Michigan State goes with Nietzel, and today, Nietzel has met his match in Augustin. UT should be able to match up reasonably well with Morgan et al. Can MSU handle UT's quicks on the offensive end? They have more scorers than MSU, so if one guy is off, the points can come from other places. I've seen stretches of games in which MSU goes to sleep, takes bad shots or just doesn't perform at the same high level. In games vs. Tennessee and UCLA, Texas seemed to elevate its game to the situation. And by my numbers, there is value here. I'm buying the half here to give me +5. This is the sixth half point buy so far this year (-0.5 u on buys). And for all the math whizzes who believe that buys do not make sense, all I can tell you is that over the last 10 or so years I've been doing buying halves, the strategy has been profitable when the number is under 10 and on the half.

Xavier -3 vs. Tennessee, 2**
Somebody just hit the VOls and moved X down to 3, so I'm grabbing it here, giving me even more value on X at this number. Tenn. now has a hole in the middle with Crews out and Chism struggling. IN fact, Pearl might start the freshman Williams in the post today. And that could be a big problem as X could handle UT inside and on the boards. Tennessee still doesn't look like they are in top tier form yet, particularly Lofton who has struggled all year. Lavender will certainly not give him any easy looks and will make him work on D. UT likes to turn people over, but X does not get turned over much (only 12/game). I'm throwing out the loss X had at Tempe last week. ASU played zone against X and X had a bad shooting night. Tennessee hasn't played any zone all year and doubtful it will here. X at home with that crowd coming off a bad loss should only serve to amplify their energy today.

i'm hitting 65% on all my hoops plays this year (all my hoops plays are at lvasports.com), but it seems like whenever I post something here, it loses. sorry to anyone that followed my two hoops plays today.

Saturday 12-29
Drake-Wichita UNDER 129
Temple +9 vs. Florida
Troy +8 vs. Western Kentucky
Bama -12 vs. GW
West Va. -7 vs. Oklahoma

3-2 yesterday; One Sunday night total:

Chattanooga-Wright State OVER 134, 1*
This game matches a very fast paced team vs. a slow team. The number reflects a shading to the slow side. But will Wright State slow this game down or let it be played at the Mocs’ pace? Based on its previous games vs. fast teams, I suspect Wright will play faster than it usually does, as evidenced by previous games vs Marshall, Fullerton and Belmont. Even in the Fullerton game, a game in which Wright coach Brownell said beforehand that his Raiders would have to slow it down a little, the game had 136 possessions. Even if Wright tries to make this a half-court game, you can count on the Mocs to keep playing their game, which is keeping the pace fast, spreading out and firing treys. Neither one of these teams has a true post game, but both have guards that will slash to the hoop and draw fouls. That’s good for an over too. Defensively, Wright is respectable, but it allows opponents to shoot 39% from trey, meaning they have given opponents some good looks from outside. The Mocs will take any old look to fire the three ball, as that is a key part of their game. This line opened at 136 and came down two, with a move on Chatt too. Somebody apparently likes under. Wrong side move in my opinion. I looked and made a few calls to see if there was some injury to a Wright player last night that caused someone to bet Chattanooga and under, but haven’t found any.

Bought some more at over 132.5. Somebody likes under. Me vs. the market.

I used to worry about lines moving against me, wondering what it was I didn't know. This season with college totals, I've been right every time the market went the other direction. So I've just bought more at a lower price when that happened. This one with the Mocs wasn't even close. The market flipped me the bird and the market was wrong.

Thursday, Jan. 3

If the Ohio State-Illini total comes out above 125, I will be betting that game under.

Cleveland State -8 vs. Loyola Chicago, 1*
The number might be a fair one from a power ratings perspective, but the matchup and situation says CSU. The Loyola Ramblers have been run out by doubles in every road game. This young team just hasn’t learned how to compete on the road yet. Fundamentally, they don’t have a go-to guy, they don’t shoot particularly well and they aren’t great defensively. Cleveland State is well-coached and is playing at a higher level than last year...They will be looking to bounce back from their loss at Kent State a few nights ago. The Vikings beat Central Michigan and Youngstown by doubles in their last two home games, and those teams are better than Loyola.