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 STUN Panel NFL Picks

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BBR-Greg



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Tue Oct 23, 2007 8:27 pm

Underground Dyer wrote:
Simmons and Max who both went 9-5 this week giving them identical 65-38 records.


Who is Max? Where are his picks? He's not on the weekly picks pic is he? I'm confused... :)

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Underground Dyer
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:07 am

Max is not a member of the panel. He's the only one out side of the panel that sends his picks in every week. When the season started we had a handfull of people outside of the panel doing their picks with us. A couple didn't send picks in after week one and the others fell off slowly. He picks don't appear on the picks page, but he sends in his picks and I keep track of his progress.

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BBR-Greg



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Wed Oct 24, 2007 12:09 am

Sweet. So it's us vs. Max! He's doing quite well!

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Max



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Wed Oct 24, 2007 7:24 pm

BBR-Greg wrote:
Underground Dyer wrote:
BBR-Greg wrote:
Underground Dyer wrote:
Simmons and Max who both went 9-5 this week giving them identical 65-38 records.


Who is Max? Where are his picks? He's not on the weekly picks pic is he? I'm confused... :)

Max is not a member of the panel. He's the only one out side of the panel that sends his picks in every week. When the season started we had a handfull of people outside of the panel doing their picks with us. A couple didn't send picks in after week one and the others fell off slowly. He picks don't appear on the picks page, but he sends in his picks and I keep track of his progress.

Sweet. So it's us vs. Max! He's doing quite well!


Indeed I am. Thanks. (Haha, some of you are losing to an Australian.)

Come on Simmons, we can catch that damn Drake!
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STUN.Ryan
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Thu Oct 25, 2007 12:00 am

I don't know. Drake has a heart of pure cold, yes cold. He is able to completely remove himself of any personal feelings towards the teams and evaluate the games more unbiased than anyone in the history of the world. I try to do that, but there's always a couple games that I can't help myself.
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Max



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Thu Oct 25, 2007 6:49 pm

You see, my strategy is to not watch any NFL at all - honestly, I haven't even seen a highlight for around 4 weeks. Damn school.
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Underground Dyer
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Fri Oct 26, 2007 10:51 pm

Picks page for Week Eight is up.

Everyone is picking the Bears to beat Detroit this week and I DON'T LIKE IT!! They only seem to win when none of you thinks they will, so I will officially declare them doomed. Sad

The Bills are surprisingly getting the unanimous vote this week along with the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Colts.

We are a house divided on Pittsburgh vs Cincy and Denver vs Green Bay. Three on either side of the fence there.

And after having five 5 vs 1 disagreements last week, we only have one this week. Simmons is the only one among us who thinks the Niners can beat New Orleans. There are a few 4 vs 2 games this week though.

But with all of the across the board agreements I don't know how much, if any movement there will be in the standings. We'll have to wait and see.

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STUN.Ryan
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Fri Oct 26, 2007 11:06 pm

I'll be at Soldier Field for the game, section 106! They better not disappoint.
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whodeygal



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 12:07 am

I've actually been waffling about the Bengals/Steelers game. The boys do better at Heinz Field in recent history...

But then I remember that it's the Steelers, and they can get bent. Very Happy

I don't think I'll be divorcing my emotions from my pick process anytime soon.

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Coast2Coast



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 12:58 am

STUN.Ryan wrote:
I don't know. Drake has a heart of pure cold, yes cold. He is able to completely remove himself of any personal feelings towards the teams and evaluate the games more unbiased than anyone in the history of the world.


Really? You don't know anybody else who is totally unbiased at picking winners of games?

I'm in another weekly pick winners contest on yahoo with a bunch of guys from chicago (a few who are on this site occasionally). I know, we're not part of your contest. But it's fun to compare how we do against the budding "underground" media represented on this site.

Oh yeah. I have a two game lead on you. Wink

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STUN.Ryan
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 1:35 am

Coast, I know you are capable of the same. I just can't help myself on two games a week. I have no problem picking against the Colts and have in the past and been wrong. My problem is sometimes I can't shake weird feelings aI have about a certain team that week when it makes no sense and Drake is also able to shake that off....from what I gather by listening to him.

As I said before, no one should call anyone on here an expert in picking games. In general, is anybody at all? Doubtful. I think we've looked like a pretty bad choosers of predicting winners these year. I'm not surprised if your entire group is beating this panel by two games!
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Coast2Coast



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 2:41 am

I understand, Ryan. Fans have what I call the "home fan disadvantage" in picking winners. Most fans overstate both the good and the bad associated with their teams. Last week, for example, coming off a loss, few Bears fans liked them to win at Philly. This week, after a win, most Bears fans love them. That's the problem with trying to pick winners based on your perspective as a fan. Most fans are rarely in sync with the ebb and flow of a typical season from a mediocre team. And the NFL this year has two great teams and a few very bad teams. Everybody else in the middle is a blob of mediocrity. It's a typical NFL season in that regard.

Psychologists call it the "recency" effect, which basically means people respond most to what they saw last. Most people who try to pick winners are most influenced by what they saw in last week's games. It's the same principle that political types use to get yard signs as close as possible to the polling place and why they buy huge amounts of ad time the last two days before an election.

Forget "recency" in picking NFL winners. When I see somebody talking about picking a team based on what they did last week I see somebody who doesn't quite get it. I prefer what I call the Jack Buck principle when it comes to picking the NFL: "I don't believe what I just saw". Or if you prefer, think of most NFL teams, outside the very best and the very worst, as a bunch of zig zaggers. If a mediocre team zigs one week, then they will likely zag the next.

Good luck this week to all of you, whether you subscribe to recency, Buck, zig/zag, your own special formula, or picking winners by throwing darts.

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STUN.Ryan
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 2:48 am

Here's recency for you Coast. Last year when the Colts got blown out by the Jags, I stated on our NFL Recap show at the time that the thing I learned from the week was "The Colts will not win nor go to the Superbowl this year. No doubt about it." Very Happy
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STUN.Ryan
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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Sat Oct 27, 2007 2:49 am

However, when I pick I'm not a recency guy. Case in point my Niners pick this week. This is that "gut feeling" pick that usually get me in trouble unless it's the 2005 Bills who I picked well I think? Maybe not. Whatever.
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Coast2Coast



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PostSubject: Re: STUN Panel NFL Picks   Tue Oct 30, 2007 3:43 am

Ryan, you and I both had a gut feeling about the Niners. That wasn't just wrong. It was horribly bad wrong. So does that make us gutted or gutless?

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