NFL Pick Against The Spread Contest, Week 1

Pick 5 games against the spread each week using lines published here every Tuesday. Picks must be submitted via PM to me (Coast2Coast) no later than 8 pm ET every Friday. This way, nobody will know what games others are picking. If you are playing a Thursday game (such as this week's New Orleans at Indy game), then all of your picks must be submitted by 8 pm ET on Wednesday of that week. Every week, I will post everyone's picks in the contest thread after the deadline. Picks will be scored giving 1 point for a winner against the spread, 0 points for a loser and .5 points for a push. At the end of the 17 week NFL regular season, we will throw out your worst weekly score and go with your best 16 weeks. This will allow people to miss one week, get a zero for that week, but not be affected in the contest. A prize will be offered to the winner (to be announced).

Week 1 Lines
New Orleans Saints +6
Indianapolis Colts -6

KC Chiefs +3
Houston Texans -3

Denver Broncos -3
Buffalo Bills +3

Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5
Cleveland Browns +4.5

Tennessee Titans +6.5
Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5

Carolina Panthers +1
St. Louis Rams -1

Philadelphia Eagles -3
Green Bay Packers +3

Atlanta Falcons +3
Minnesota Vikings -3

Miami Dolphins +3
Washington Redskins -3

New England Patriots -6.5
New York Jets +6.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6
Seattle Seahawks -6

Chicago Bears +6
San Diego Chargers -6

Detroit Lions +2
Oakland Raiders -2

NY Giants +6
Dallas Cowboys -6

Baltimore Ravens +2.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5

Arizona Cardinals +3
San Francisco 49ers -3

There is only one person who is playing the game tonight as one of his/her 5 plays this week. Chus is on Indy. Everyone else has picked other teams. I will post everyone's picks Friday night. It's not too late to get your picks in and enter this contest. Deadline is Friday night. There aren't many people entering, so your odds are pretty good that you will be in the hunt for the nice prize we will offer. Good luck all.

I am so confident that I have decided to skip this week and make my plays beginning next week.

It has nothing to do with my not having time to look at this week's games.

Also, hello all, I'm Dr. Ken. I'm new to this message board thing. How does it work?

Dr. Ken, I'm sure Coast would allow everyone to still get in this week. I'd PM Coast still if you want to, but I know you are fairly confident in your powers.

I would like to get in on this too. Since I'm sort of the returning champion.

Yea, dam it Nas. If I had played earlier I would have given you a run for your money. I think I was two games shy of the minimum and 1.5% behind you. Get your picks into Coast. I am hopefully going to get him to go easy on people for week 1 only.

Alright. I threw some picks Coast's way. We'll see if I'm legal.

I love the Colts this week giving 6.

Great call Doctor.

I sent Coast my picks too but I took the Saints.

It's week one. I'm being lenient on the deadlines. Hell, who cares about deadlines. Just get your picks in before kickoff. Here are the picks so far. (Sabu still owes me a pick as he has just four so far).

Chus
Indianapolis
Pittsburgh
Jacksonville
St. Louis
Philadelphia

Thestos
Baltimore
New York Jets
Washington
Minnesota
Pittsburgh

Ryan Simmons
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
Seattle
Detroit
Dallas

BDish89
NY Jets
Chicago
Seattle
St. Louis
Philadelphia

Coast
Washington
Jacksonville
Seattle
Cleveland
Baltimore

Bad Mahi Mahi
Houston
Denver
Seattle
Dallas
Arizona

Bob Wiley
Kansas City
Buffalo
Green Bay
Washington
Seattle

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Miami
NY Giants
Philly

Nas
Chicago
Oakland
Jacksonville
Houston
NY Jets

BrianIm
Atlanta
Detroit
Baltimore
Carolina
Kan. City

Rockhoppers
Seattle
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
NY Jets
49ers

Sabu
St. Louis
Jacksonville
New England
Seattle

I would also like to be in, as I am a degenerative gambling addict and need action wherever I can get it.

What the hell does this guy mean?

God only knows Irish Boy. We all enjoy the elephant emoricon best.

Starting week 2 we will enforce the Friday night deadline. After that time, it'd be cool if some of the people like Chus, Coast, Nas and whoever else has some experience in this play would post their picks with their reasoning why they went the way they did.

Seriously, that would be great. I'm all good with picks until folks start talking spreads and whatnot.

Obviously, I'm not much of a gambler.

Additional Entries:

Whodeygal
Houston
Denver
St. Louis
Detroit
Cincinnati

Meathorse
St Louis
Baltimore
Buffalo
Atlanta
Chicago

Irish Boy
Denver
Pittsburgh
Houston
Washington
Chicago

Sabu addition: San Fran

I'll explain my picks, FWIW. Most of my picks in week 1 are based on what I perceive to be value....percentages and power ratings mostly. I have ratings for all the teams and I believe the public betting market (and oddsmakers in some cases) have valued teams differently than I. I also have a few almost absolute rules: I (almost) never bet road favorites. I (almost) never bet double digit favorites. Those theories are based principally on math and statistics. They have nothing to do with football matchups or situations. I will cap the NFL on situations and matchups at times, but not much here in week 1. I wrote some of these games up in my NFL picks of the week. Here are a few additional thoughts...

I think the Skins are undervalued at -3. I think Tampa Bay is overvalued for the road situation they are in today. I think Tennessee is overvalued and Jax undervalued. Too many talking heads and public bettors discounting Jax because of prior history and the Leftwich thing. When they are healthy (and they are now) their front 7 on defense and OL areboth in the top echelons of the league. Tenn is not. Cleveland is a home dog getting a bit too many points IMO. Pitt has a new coaching staff with a rookie coach playing their first game at their rivals and laying too much wood. Over 80% of bets on this game are on Pittsburgh, which is why the # is where it is. The oddsmakers knew Cleve would not be a popular pick (and the Steelers often are). Finally, I have Baltimore rated ahead of Cincy overall right now. This line says the teams are even. I love great defenses getting points in what I (and the oddsmakers) expect to be a low-scoring game.

STUN.Ryan wrote:

Starting week 2 we will enforce the Friday night deadline. After that time, it'd be cool if some of the people like Chus, Coast, Nas and whoever else has some experience in this play would post their picks with their reasoning why they went the way they did.

Not a problem. I was surprised Coast didn't ask us to do it anyway.

Too many people missed the deadline and we had a lot of new users sign up

That's great.

Coast, you could have saved some time by just saying all Dr. Ken's picks are wrong.

Oh, how I miss that bucket of chicken.