Patriots by 50

I hate the Pats...

With that said I think they are going to school the Colts this weekend. Colts have been playing great and flying underneath the radar. They are playing great defense, but the Patriots are a team of destiny. They are destined to destroy every team they face...

I think they are pissed they lost that AFC Championship game last year. So expect Bill, Tom, and Randy to run up the score and throttle Peyton...

Sorry Ryan, I know you are a Peyton (sprint commercial fan...) fanboy.

i can only hope you are wrong

STUN.Ryan wrote:

i can only hope you are wrong

deep down you know i am right...

no I really don't think so.

I would be very surprised if the Patriots won by 7, much less 50. I think the Colts win this one.

You have hit on two of the most popular angles by some fans and media, yet IMO are two of the most irrelevant angles in big games...motivation and revenge. This is classic media BS...that one NFL team WANTS it more than another because of what has happened off the field or in previous games. I've seen numerous statistical analyses of NFL games going back many years and there is no discernible statistical edge to "revenge" situations. In fact, the numbers slightly skew to the other direction. If a team beats a team once (or three times in a row) that suggests to me that the winning team knows how to beat the other. Some teams just have other teams' number. New England has additional talent that it didn't have last year, particularly at WR. That reduces the edge Indy has on them. But in my mind, playing at home, the edge in this game still lies with Indy. To suggest that one team wants it more because of this, that or revenge is media-fueled hyperbole. How exactly does "revenge" translate into better play on the field?. I don't buy it for pro players and teams (though there are times it might come into play in college).

The other thing that is largely irrelevant in this game is the comparative game scores and victory margins. Pats' offensive explosions and blowouts in previous games are indicators that they operated at near peak efficiency versus inferior opponents. But those final scores are also an indication of play calling styles of the two teams. I'm not saying NE ran up the score, they simply kept running their offense. Indy has been ahead in a few games and has taken their foot off the pedal and not run their offense for 4 quarters. Does anyone really doubt that Indy could have blown Jax and Carolina out worse had Dungy decided not to call running plays for 90% of the plays in the 2nd halves of those games?

The public perceives the Pats to be better than the undefeated Super Bowl champs based on these things. That spells opportunity in a big way for point spread players. This should be a great game. The two best teams are playing. But if New England wins, it will be because they played better, or perhaps simply because of fewer turnovers....not because of more motivation or revenge.

Coast2Coast wrote:

The other thing that is largely irrelevant in this game is the comparative game scores and victory margins. Pats' offensive explosions and blowouts in previous games are indicators that they operated at near peak efficiency versus inferior opponents. But those final scores are also an indication of play calling styles of the two teams. I'm not saying NE ran up the score, they simply kept running their offense. Indy has been ahead in a few games and has taken their foot off the pedal and not run their offense for 4 quarters. Does anyone really doubt that Indy could have blown Jax and Carolina out worse had Dungy decided not to call running plays for 90% of the plays in the 2nd halves of those games?

Good stuff there Coast. I was trying to explain this to them and no one was getting it. I tried to also explain that Indy has a completely different offensive scheme than the Pats. Dungy prepares something called "10 Possessions." Pretty simple concept really He feels each team should have 5 possessions a game and has the offense play where clock control/management dictates a low number of possessions for the opponent. With a low number of possessions the theory is you should always be in the ballgame. This slower, first down moving offense usually results in lowers scores than the Pats throwing it up in the air 50 yards every other play.

Also, keep in mind that both teams are performing at historically unprecedented levels. It's one thing to be undefeated, but neither of these teams have really been challenged (the Colts only beat the Titans by two, but that game was never in doubt.) Meanwhile, the talk about the Patriots is a self-propelling phenomenon; the more talk, the more hype, the more talk, etc. The game is still in Indy. Peyton Manning didn't step on a land mine this week. The Colts defense isn't the same as the Miami defense.

And yet this is turning into a crazy "Superfans" type situation where the Colts this year aren't good enough to merit serious discussion, so Patriots fans and NFL commentators in general have to invent wacky scenarios in order to level the playing field. "Are the Patriots the best team to ever play football?" "Could the Patriots defeat the NFC pro-bowl team?" "Could Hurricane Bellichick defeat the Cowboys in Super Bowl 42?" "How many Bradys can dance on the end of a pin?" The last time I remember this happening was in any professional sport was the USC/Texas Rose Bowl. (Jonathan Chait wrote a tremendously funny article previous to that game here http://www.slate.com/id/2133477/ which was completely vindicted). I think we have a little bit of that going on right now.

Interesting. Most people thought there was no way Texas would win that game...

We may not be the only ones liking Indy, but we're definitely in the minority. I love it that way.

I remember the 2002 Final Four when I was doing the radio show in Chicago. As I read and listenened during the week, absolutely EVERYBODY on every show and every article I read said that Oklahoma was going to beat Indiana in the final four game on Saturday. Not only did I have an analytical analysis, but I absolutely felt it in my bones. I knew I was right. I went on the air on the Score and said definitively that IU would win outright... and Mike North said "you are nuts Coast". Mr. Contrarian couldn't even be a contrarian. Somebody even jag bagged me for giving out such a stupid pick. I wrote a long writeup on a website about it. The guys there laughed at me that I was betting Indiana to not only cover but to win outright......until the game was over Saturday night and the Mike Davis Hoosiers were in the Champ. Game. Indiana was a 7 point dog. They won outright going away. (By the way, I was not a Mike Davis fan at all and bet against them many, many more times than I bet on them).

I don't quite feel this one the same way yet, but it's getting there...

I think the Patriots will win but good argument by Coast. You made me think and that is quite an accomplishment. It also bothers me all the experts are picking them. That's usually a signal to go the other way.

I don't care. I hate both teams and am tired of them.

Spaulding, should I bring back your favorite Tony Dungy avatar?

SPAULDING...I missed you! You haven't been here in a long time! Last time you were here I believe you were getting close to childbirth. How are you doing? How is baby? I demand baby pictures. His/her name?

The talking heads on Fox are now debating whether New England will run up the score on Indy.

The Patriots have gotten a lot better on both sides of the ball. Some people might say the Colts have taken a step back on both sides of the ball. It's not even close IMO. I see a 3 turnover game for Manning and the Patriots will win by at least 2 touchdowns. We've all seen Manning press when things aren't going well and we will see the same thing today.

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should I bring back your favorite Tony Dungy avatar?

Cram it Ryan. As far as I know Superbowl 41 was never played. It was rained out.

I'm great. I read here almost everyday but feel funny about burdening you nice people with my thoughts. So I don't post much, once I do you'll be sorry.

I've got some weight to lose. We had a girl, her name is Ashley. How do I post pictures here? How's your shoulder?

13-10 with 2 minutes in the 3rd quarter is not how I thought this game would go. I love that it's close. I can't stand the Brady/Manning show.

This is incredible.
NE is getting hosed by poor pass interference calls. 2 huge phantom defensive calls against them early, Moss was just called for phantom offensive. And there was at least one defensive on Indy that wasn't called.

I am not yet convinced that the Pats are better than the Colts. I'll be interested to see the advanced statistics arising from the game, but just one small point:

Obviously home field advantage is a huge advantage, especially in the playoffs. But couldn't the Patriots offense be somewhat incapacitated by an especially cold or wintery game at Foxborough? Traditionally, you'd think that the Colts would have a huge advantage in a dome because of their offense, but I'm not sure that's so much the case this year. The Patriots, at least today, had a difficult time of sustaining drives when they couldn't hit the big strike. Will that strike be there in the wind and snow? Can the Pats run the ball when it matters. And can the Patriots defense hold up? Well see.