MY thoughts on the Arlington Million - I'm no pro so caution with my suggestions. I would love to hear what other horse racing fans think about the possibilities of the race.
This is a tough Million to handicap. I can’t tell you I know who is going to win and I can’t tell you the three horses to box for a winning tri. What I can tell you, is that when they round that corner and race down the stretch, it will be a battle between more then a couple horses. We have some game horses in this race and it’s sure to be a doozy. Here are my thoughts and notes on a race that I’m getting more and more excited about every minute.
1 – Jambalaya
Can this horse win? YES. If you like a long shot, this might be the horse for you, however I doubt he will go off at 10-1. I’m very confident in saying that this horse will be with the leaders down the stretch. He has been game in all his races in 2007 and has been a strong contender in all of them. The fact that his nemesis Sky Conqueror is not racing may make him more comfortable in the final furlong. He’s had the lead in his last two outings and just couldn’t hang on. Weakened a bit when the challenge is on, however I don’t believe the distance is an issue; this horse is use to longer races and has proven he can win at a 1 ½ - so racing at a 1 ¼ is not an issue. He is a Grade 1 winner and has put up some decent Beyer numbers. This horse def. should be in consideration when creating exotics; he might just be slightly outclassed in this race. When focusing on what to do with this horse, I would put serious consideration in the fact that he has Robby Albarado on his back for this one. First time jockey/horse combination; but…….its Robby Albarado.
2 – Sunriver
The upside on this horse is huge. He may be an amazing turf racer. We just don’t know how good this one is just yet. He’s 2 for 2 in turf races, and by no means bad on dirt. This one has yet to be challenged on the turf, with two convincing wins, however, less then stellar competition in both. He’s been taken from start to finish in both, and may be setting the pace in this one if Tin Man chooses to sit back a tad. I forgot to mention that this is a Todd Pletcher trained horse, which speaks volumes in its own. This horse will either show the world how good he really is, or he will show that he is mediocre. I’m having a hard time believing this horse will take this field from start to finish. The dirt and the turf are completely different surfaces especially when we are talking Grade 1 races, I’m disregarding his dirt races, although it is worth noting that he has raced in some big races over his career.
3 – Doctor Dino
One thing that makes this race very appealing is the European Bred horses that make the trip. It also makes this race a little more difficult to handicap. My knowledge on the International horses is limited but I can tell you that the jockey riding this one is on top of his game. Murtagh is an international success and is on a hot-streak. With that being said, this horse’s last win was Oct. of 2006 and is on a layoff from May. With a very weak international class this year for the million (in comparison to years past) I would not put my money down on this one. I doubt this one will be a factor.
4 – After Market
This horse should be the favorite. This horse is the horse to beat. He’s Coming off three straight wins, with one being over Lava Man. This horse has been getting better every time he steps on the track. But, before this victory streak he went 5th, 6th, 8th, and10th. This ones pedigree is convincing in itself. The talent is in his blood. This horse very well might be too good for this field.
5 – The Tin Man
What’s not too like about this horse. He will be the fan favorite in this one. The age has to be brought up with every race he enters. The winner of the million last year, he took the field the whole way, and Espinoza may try to take this one straight to the lead again. I didn’t pick him to win last year, and I don’t think I’m going to pick him to win this year. In fact I never pick him to win, so I’ve been wrong about this one a handful of times. He will be there in the end. He also has the most impressive history. He won in a stronger field last year. I wouldn’t count him out to have his head bobbin’ at the finish line.
6 – Pressing
He’s on lasix for the first time in this race. That’s about all I know. I’m going to trust the morning line odds on this one and say he won’t be a factor. This is the least impressive horse out of the international group this year. If you only bet long shots, this is the horse you should pick.
7 - Stream Cat
If you come in third in the Stars and Stripe Handicap, I can’t see you winning the Arlington Million. This horse is outclassed here. He has been running well this year but he hasn’t done anything lately to make me feel he is a legitimate contender. I can see him passing tired horses in this one, but I don’t think he will give the leaders a run for it. I would not be shocked to see him finish fourth, and may give you a price in an exotic. I think he’s better than what most think, but still not good enough to challenge for the win. With that being said, he will not be in my exotics.
8 – Danak
If you don’t want to bet on the American Horses, this would be the International horse to bet on. I think he is clearly the best out of the European group. Is a proven winner with only his last outing being an unimpressive 4th place finish. Although there were some good race horses in his last race. This is another questionable horse. He has some good time form ratings, especially in his last two outings. His camp likes the way he breezed the soft turf at Arlington. Another horse you might want to think about with your exotics, but I would try not to convince yourself he will win.
MY PREDICTION
I usually am not one to favor the favorite, but I can’t convince myself that After Market will lose this race. My ticket will look something like this.
Trifecta Box – 4-1-5
Superfecta Box – 4-1-5-8
Subject: Arlington Million 
Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:35 am
