NFL Pick Against The Spread Contest, Week 4

Included in the standings is the worst weekly score of each participant. At the end of the 17 weeks, we will throw out the worst weekly score for each player.

This contest is being run with the exact same rules and lines as the Las Vegas Hilton Superbook contest. The Hilton contest is the oldest and largest football handicapping contest in Vegas ($300k to the winner and large payments to the top 5). There are 341 people who paid $1500 each to enter that contest. Here are the scores and standings of the Hilton Contest through three weeks.

1. 14.5 (14-0-1)
2. 12
3. 11.5
6. 11
12. 10.5
20. 10
36. 9.5
60. 9
76. 8.5
109. 8
134. 7.5
177. 7
206. 6.5
240. 6
262. 5.5
289. 5
308. 4.5
316. 4
329. 3.5
339. 3
341. 2.5

9 home dogs this week. WOW. This week could be more upsetting for favorites and their backers than week 2 when 4 out of 6 home dogs covered.

I'm coming for you Coast. You should be

Can anybody in his right mind tell me why The Beloved are giving 3...which, of course, means take the Bears.

Bad Mahi Mahi wrote:

Can anybody in his right mind tell me why The Beloved are giving 3...which, of course, means take the Bears.

Because I'm the starting cornerback, and the offense sucking wasn't all Rex. But feel free to take the Bears, I just wouldn't advise it.

Bad Mahi Mahi wrote:

Can anybody in his right mind tell me why The Beloved are giving 3...which, of course, means take the Bears.

That's one way to look at it, but I don't believe in traps. I believe lines are a reflection of power ratings mostly. And I have heard Kenny White (master oddsmaker/CEO of LVSC that advises all the LV books on opening numbers) speak recently on this issue. I think the line on this game reflects the power ratings that LVSC has had on these teams from the beginning. Kenny said that he does not devalue teams significantly after 1,2,or 3 games. He also believes that most people over-value injuries and he doesn't discount them as much as many players do. So following that logic, this number is on the money with where his PRs have been the first three weeks. This number is exactly what I thought it would be.

Now, having said that, this number is not consistent with my PRs. I have had the Bears over-valued by 2-3 points every game this year, while I have had the Lions pretty much right on the money in each of the first three weeks. In week 1, though I saw value with the Bears, I didn't want either side of the Bears/Chargers. In week 2 and 3, there was value with the Chiefs and Cowboys by my numbers, and I bet them. I was fully expecting to get 3 points of value again this week, simply because my PR on the Bears is 3 points lower than the oddsmakers'...and I did. And of course, I will take it. So I'm not surprised at all by the number.

However, I do not believe that this line reflects the Bears' cluster injuries on defense. But that's White's style. He doesn't devalue injuries as quickly or as much as others might. I have not either. I have not devalued the Bears for that yet either, as I'm waiting to see exactly how this team performs with all the injuries (and who exactly ends up playing and to what form). After this week, we might see a bit more of an adjustment to their number.

Anyway, I'm sure there will be many like you who see this as a trap. To me, it's all power ratings.

LVSC is the master oddsmaking company for the Vegas casinos. Here are the actual LVSC Power Ratings that LVSC releases to the Vegas casinos each week. Casinos consider the LVSC recommendations and then establish their own openers and move the numbers based (primarily) on action.

Add 3 points for the home team to calculate a line. If this info is useful to you, I'll be happy to post it every week.

Or you can find it online (along with a story explaining them) at http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/story.cfm/story/617310

Interesting stuff. I use the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings as my informal power rankings. FO takes every play of the season and measures it by success, then adjusts the rating based upon dfensive adjustments. For the first 4 weeks of the season, they use a similar DAVE system, which also takes into account preseason formulations. Here's the DVOA/DAVE rankings:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/09/25/ramblings/dvoa-rankings/5525/

I've found that they are right more times than not. They predicted that Green Bay would be the best team in the NFC north, that Tampa would be the bet team in the NFC South, that the Rams would crumble and that New Orleans would disappoint, and that Washington would be one of the top teams in the NFC as well. We're only three weeks in, but they're pretty dead-on so far, and they've been the best prognosticators for the last few seasons. FWIW, they have Detroit ranked four positions in front of Chicago. Also keep in mind that this is not a gambling service per se.

thanks for that. I'll check it out.

Vikings +1

Farve has always been terrible in the Metrodome an nothing will change this year. The Vikings have one of the best defenses in the league and they will shut down the Packers offense.

Vikings win 13-6

Patriots -7

If the Browns almost put up 60 points against Cincinnati I think the Patriots might score 100. The Patriots are just too good on both sides of the ball.

Patriots win 49-20

Lions + 2.5

With the Bear defense being shorthanded the Lions passing game will pick them apart. Considering it may take a few weeks for a bad Bears offense to get on the same page as their new quarterback this one could get ugly.

Lions win 31-10

Bucs +3

Garcia has been a breath of fresh air to the Tampa Bay offense and that will continue this week. Look for Cadillac Williams to get a couple scores on the ground.

Bucs win 37-20

Raiders +3.5

The Raiders offense has been pretty good even though their quarterback has been banged up. Look for them to pound the ball with Jordan and for their defense to shut down a bad Dolphins offense.

Raiders win 20-9

Here are the picks for week 4.

Nas, I'm on the Vikings too, but not because Favre doesn't do well in domes. Early in his career, that was true, but not lately. This time of year, you have to watch the incorrect information emanating from uninformed mouths on talk radio

The last two years, it seems like Favre has over-performed in domes, and at the Metrodome especially.

Favre in 2006:
Season Avg - 21/38, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 72.7 rating
@ Det - 25/36, 340 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int, 127.1 rating
@ Min - 24/42, 347 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 100.0 rating

2005:
Season Avg - 23/38, 243 yds, 1 TD, 2 Int, 70.9 rating
@ Det - 27/44, 201 yds, 0 TD, 2 Int, 53.5 rating
@ Min - 28/36, 315 yds, 2 TD, 0 Int, 121.6 rating
@ Atl - 26/39, 252 yds, 1 TD, 1 Int, 82.4 rating

Holy upset!
What happened today?
At least I picked 4 of 'em :)