NFL Pick Against The Spread Contest, Week 2

Standings After Week 1

Ouch! I demand a recount!

I am decidedly average.

Do we have over/unders in this game?

Edited until later date...

No over-unders in this contest. We are using the exact same rules and weekly lines as the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book contest ($1500 entry fee; prizes worth over $500k), which is the largest football handicapping contest in the country. Doing this will enable us to compare ourselves with some of the best handicappers in the biz. As the season wears on, I'll show your ranks/records and compare that to the LV contest entrants.

NFL Week 2
I'm going to explain my philosophy for my picks here for this week, though I haven't yet settled on exactly which ones I will play. This week (and almost every week) it is all about value. The square bettors are mostly flush with cash after the big favorites cashed last week. And they will be, predictably, betting the favorites (especially popular road favorites) this week. My 25 years of betting the NFL have taught me that picking winners in the NFL is, over the long term, a coin flip. I used to handicap all sorts of angles and matchups and try to pick the team that would win based on football factors. Generally, while I have been profitable most years, in real terms, that was a waste of a lot of time. Over 25 years, I have NEVER EVER seen any handicapper pick better than 55% in the NFL on a consistent, long-term basis over multiple seasons. And anybody who can do 55% year in, year out, ought to be living on an island by now.

Instead, what I have found is that guys who play the % and play the value, can be successful most years (except for the bloodbath of 2005 in which favorites covered at a ridiculous %). These guys grind out a profit every year (except for those special years like 2005) while Joe Six pack has some winning weeks, gets a lot of enjoyment out of betting teams to win, has some losing weeks and overall...loses. They are in essence, paying for the entertainment and enjoyment of watching teams win football games, not necessarily winning money.

I've gradually made this shift in thinking over several years, but this year, I will try to be resolute that I am going to be a market analyst, not a handicapper, in the NFL. Don’t look to my NFL picks this year for any football insight. It will all be about the numbers and taking value as I find it...which usually will be with the ugliest of ugly home dogs that no football fan in their right mind will want to bet....but most importantly to me, that have lines that have been inflated by the public bettors playing the other side.

After watching the volumes on certain teams last week, there is no doubt that certain dogs will show inflation this week. Even the oddsmakers and casinos admit that they cannot keep balanced action. That is one of the major drawbacks to "booking to the face", which means that any small bettor and even their aggregate action has NO effect on the line. Only large bettors or sharp bettors (not necessarily the same), will have an effect on the line. It leaves the casino having a position on these games, and Kenny White says his clients, the casinos, will be FADING these teams like the Bears etc. It’s stupid but that is just the way that it is right now. I’ll take it as I find it, but if favorites cover again this week, then it will be even better next week when they have to pump up the ugly dogs even more.

To provide a bit more data to the discussion above, here is a weekly report I receive...

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We have seen academic studies that verify the bias towards underdogs in the NFL (as well as in other major sports). The past two seasons have seen some extremes in the NFL. 2005 saw underdogs perform poorly (favorites covered at more than a 57% rate!). And then 2006 saw the underdogs come back with a vengeance, covering the point spread almost 56% of the time.

Here is a table of NFL underdog performance over the past few years.

Table 1: NFL Underdogs vs. Point Spread
2001
53.0%

2002
55.8%

2003
53.2%

2004
50.0%

2005
42.8%

2006
55.9%


Betting Against the Public in the NFL
Over the past 4 seasons, betting on dogs would have resulted in a 51.3% winning percentage overall. If you Bet Against the Public (in the NFL, most of these plays would be on the dog who are facing favorites that have received 75% or more of the total bet on that game), you would have hit 55.4% over the past three years (see Table 2, below). Results are fairly consistent each year, with Betting Against the Public adding about 4% value per year.

This shows that Betting Against the Public can be beneficial to your handicapping. As you can see, the results can jump around from season to season. This is partly due to the relatively low number of games during the NFL Season. It’s also the nature of any investment: there is both risk AND return.

Table 2: Benefit of Betting Against Public (vs. Spread) at 75% Level

All Dogs
Dogs, Bet Against Public

2003
53.2%
61.8%

2004
50.0%
50.0%

2005
42.8%
48.1%

2006
55.9%
69.8%

2003-2006
51.3%
55.4%


It is impossible to predict the future. Any serious academic research in the field of “market efficiencies” recognizes that inefficiencies may disappear or fade over time. Once inefficiencies are discovered, it is only a matter of time before the market corrects itself.

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I'm not expecting another 69.8% record with the "Bet Against The Public" strategy this year as was the case last year. But I am expecting it to be better than what I could do handicapping the games based on football factors.

Aren't we supposed to PM our picks ?

I thought we were supposed to post them, because we were supposed to provide rationales. I'll erase my post until such time as it is determined what format the picks should be made.

I set the contest up to PM your picks, but if you want to post them, feel free to do that as well. It doesn't matter to me. I'm just offering the same rules as the Hilton Contest in that people can send their picks in without \everyone else knowing what they are doing. After all the picks are received on Friday, I will explain my individual picks. Others can do the same or they can do it here before the deadline. If you want to just post them here, I'll just pick them up this way. Your choice. But it would be beneficial to all if we explained our picks here at some point, either before or after the Friday night picks deadline.

Alright, I will breakdown my picks for the week and the rationale that I have used.

Bills +9.5 at Steelers

I'm taking the Bills here getting the points despite the fact that I have no good reason to. So, even though the Steelers destroyed their opponent on the road last week and the Bills lost at home, I still like the Bills to keep it close. I watched the Bills game last week and if Jason Elam ran a slower 40 they would have won. I am definitely going to watch for Kicker 40 times next year at the combine on NFL Network.

Bengals -6 at Browns
I have decided to go with the Bengals because I just like to pick teams that are on the road to do well. I am predicting Brady Quinn and Braylon Edwards will get into a fight after the Mich-ND game on Saturday due to the ugliness of the 9-7 barn burner in the Big House.

Colts -7 at Titans
Consistency is the spice of life. I am shockingly taking the road team in this one. Give me the Colts and I will give you the points. In a "Screw You" of epic proportions, I am foresaking the Titans, who came through for me last week, and taking the Colts who I feel are in the upper half of offenses in all of Midwest Professional Football, excluding the Arena League. I like Vince Young but he's got nothing for the Colts in this game. Down early and forced to throw leads to a long day for the Titans.

Broncos -9.5 vs. Raiders
I like the Broncos even though they are playing at home. To go all Old Man Potter on you, those doped up hippies from the San Fran area only have one thing in mind when you talk about Mile High. I'm a big Josh McCown fan because he once fumbled about 13 times in a game in Arizona and won me some fantasy cash. But, he's hurt and so I'm guessing we'll have a Culpepper sighting. The Raiders should be the only team that puts stickum on the QBs hands instead of the receivers. Well, maybe the Bears.

Rams -3 vs. 49ers
I got the Rams. Everybody loves the 49ers this year so I'm sure they will tank it hard here in the next few weeks. And, let's be honest, if a Ram really went against an old gold miner, he'd rip the old guy apart. I see the Rams just giving the ball to Jackson and running behind Jackie Slater all day long. Slater's still there right? 49ers have a shot if they can make Dieter Brock throw the ball. But, I'll still go with the Rams, too tough at home.

These are just my thoughts based on thorough review and some regression analysis using factors that I have identified over the years. I hope I didn't get too technical for y'all.

Was that a shot from the good Doctor? I think that was a shot.

I also use regression. I am capable of regressing to the mean SOB that certain hip hoppers think I am.

I don't know if you guys are interested in any more nonsense from me about my approach. For those who are, here is a weekly report I receive from Sports Insights (a company that monitors and tabulates betting action on games).

Sports Marketwatch – NFL Week 2

Recapping Last Week
NFL Week 1 went the way of the Square bettor with favorites going 9-2. It appeared some teams could have used an extra week of pre-season. The 1pm games started the slide for the sportsbooks, but Denver and Jacksonville failing to cover and a lot of blow outs helped break up teasers and parlay action. The 4pm games and late game put the nail in the coffin. It was an ugly day of payouts for the sportsbooks when they opened the doors on Monday.

Our Games to Watch started the season off posting a big goose egg, going 0-3. Always remember that one weekend doesn’t make or break a season. Consistent winning means winning over an entire season. Anyone can go 5-0 but very few professional sports bettors can achieve a winning percentage above 55% for an entire season. Readers from last year will note that we started the season off slow, going 1-2 in week 1 and week 2. We ended the NFL Regular season with a (31-18 = 63.3%) record. It’s about patience and believing in your research.

SportsInsights.com analysis shows that in games with over 65% of the action on one side, the public had a monster weekend, 7-2. SportsInsights.com Games to Watch analysis fell flat on its face going 0-3.

This Week’s NFL Action

This week, we’re hoping that “our dogs” are awake and ready for some action. In our last article, we mentioned four major criteria we use to judge line value. These factors are so important to getting an edge that we wanted to highlight them again:

• Public overwhelmingly on one side
• Home dog
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money
• Negative press

We anticipate Indianapolis, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, Dallas, and Cincinnati to be the most “lopsided-bet” games of the week. Each one of these teams is receiving well over 90% of the bets placed.

Dallas vs Miami Dolphins
I circled this game because it appears to the untrained eye to be a soft line, which is causing the early Public money to pound Dallas. The line has moved from Dallas -3 to -4. Every week there are typically 2 or 3 games with what appear to be soft lines. These are the games the sportsbooks make a killing on. If it looks too easy, we always take the other side. The odds makers in Vegas know what they are doing. The line should be-3 but Square money has pushed the line to -4 giving the value better an excellent Home Dog play on Miami +4.

Dallas was already an early season Public favorite. Their manhandling of the New York Giants in week 1 only added fuel to fire. Watching the highlights and listening to the media machine, you’d hear nothing but “America’s Team” is back.

The sportsbook I spoke with took a massive amount of Square money on Dallas as soon as they posted a line. They quickly retreated to -3.5, with a lot of Square sportsbooks shading the line to -4. Most of the linemen I spoke with believed they could have posted -6 or even -7 and still received a lot of Dallas action.

Currently, an amazing 90%-94% of the bets are coming in on Dallas. The Public is betting this game like they know the scores. Unfortunately, I’m still waiting for my advance copy of Monday’s sports section. We’re taking the +4 value on a Home Dog the Public money has given us.
Miami +4

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans
Indy looked great against New Orleans in week 1. Indy will continue to be a huge Public team until someone finds a game plan to beat them. We like the Tennessee Titans for the same reasons we’re taking the Miami Dolphins.

• Public overwhelmingly on Indy (85%-90%)
• Home dog (+7.5)
• Drastic line movement caused by Public money (-7 to -7.5)

The early Public action has made Tennessee a tremendous Home Dog value getting +7.5. Tennessee picked up right where they left off last season. They showed a lot of grit going into Jacksonville and coming out with a win. Early Public money has pushed the line from -7 to -7.5 at a lot Square sportsbook most notably Bodog.com. We’re taking Tennessee +7.5 and looking for our Home Dogs to start barking!
Tennessee +7.5 (NewBodog.com)

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns
The question is not “how good is Cincy” but rather “how bad is Cleveland?” Frequent readers of this column know that every week you need bad teams to do good things. It sounds easy enough but try putting your money where your mouth is. Who in their right mind would put money on Cleveland this week…no matter what line they put on the game? But it is this psychological bias that makes Cleveland an attractive play. It’s about identifying value. Over the course of an entire season, continually getting an extra half point such as +7 instead of +6.5 – will add an extra few points to your winning percentage. This can be the difference between long-term winning and losing.

I’m taking Cleveland +7 at home for the exact reason everyone is betting against them.
Cleveland +7

So, here’s a wrap-up of SportsInsights.com analysis for this week’s Games to Watch for NFL Week 2.

Games to Watch (0-3)
Miami +4
Tennessee +7.5
Cleveland +7

Obviously they use a different system than I do. We'll see if my cappucino induced insights hold up to your people's "facts" and "statistics" and "knowledge".

And, I'd never take a shot at you Coast, you know that - there's no value in that for me.

Rams -3
Look for the Rams to bounce back from a bad Week 1. Jackson will take advantage of a weak 49ers run D and Bulger will throw at least 2 touchdowns.

Rams win 34-17

Falcons +10
The Jaguars offense isn’t that good and Harrington will be good enough to keep this game close

Jaguars win 14-10

Cowboys -3.5
The Dolphins still don’t have an offense even with an aging Green. The fact that Ronnie Brown is splitting carries with a guy that wasn’t even supposed to make the team should tell you the coaching staff is a little slow. Romo builds on his week 1 success after the Cowboys defense forces at least 2 turnovers.

Cowboys win 27-13

Cardinals +3

Leinart and the Cardinals offense bounce back from an awful Week 1. Alexander shows his age and the Cardinals passing game takes advantage of a average Seahawks secondary.

Cardinals win 20-14

Raiders +9.5
The Raiders defense didn’t show up in Week 1 which was a little surprising. They won’t repeat that same mistake this week. They come out and show their top 5 form from the beginning of the game and really get after Cutler. Culpepper will make everyone forget about Russell.

Raiders win 31-14

Saints -3.5
The Saints offense wasn’t in top form against the SB champs but look for them to get healthy against the Bucs.

Saints win 28-10

Nas, I count six picks there. This contest is five picks only every week. Let me know which one to scratch.

Take the Cardinals game away.

Interesting stuff, Coast: none of the other players have any of your five teams. I'm dying to hear the logic, especially if you go 3-2 or better today.

Irish Boy, if your name has anything to do with ND it was one hell of a long day. I was actually cheering for them to get an offensive touchdown just so the stat of 38 possessions without an offensive TD would go away. My god, I've never seen Notre Dame look so bad in my entire life than yesterday. That was the wrost I've ever seen. Maybe I'll be able to get ticks at the end of the year to see this in person. Haven't been since 2000.

The name is partly that, and I am an Irish Fan, and yesterday was the worst I've ever felt after a game except for the Boston College sucker-punch in 1993 (I was 7, and it still hurt. Maybe it hurt more.) I went through every emotion at some point on the left side of the board yesterday, except for that creepy albino one.

However, and I am ashamed to admit it, I did take the under 45 in that game, since I wanted some action on it and I didn't wanted to bet against ND, but I certainly didn't want to bet for them. By the 2nd quarter, I knew that ND wasn't going to score, so it was just a question of whether Michigan would sit on the ball. Thankfully, they did.

This team is horrible. Not just bad by other BCS standards or bad by other good team standards, which I'm used to, but bad by any objective standard. They'd be the worst team in almost every conference, and I'm not convinced they'll even beat the service academies. And it's not even like there's a rainbow at the end of the trail. If the Bears suck, I can say, well, there's always the draft. But who would want to play at Notre Dame anymore?

Those five guys up front are complete shit. I agree. I'm grasping at wins here for this team and all I is a fighting chance against Stanford and Duke (shit, Duke beat N'western so who knows)

My hawkeyes lost yesterday once again to ISU...fuckin cyclones. Nt a good saturday.

IrishBoy, Not only do none of our group have any of my five teams, but few bettors nationally are playing these teams today. The logic is simple. All five of the home dogs I am playing this week are undervalued by my numbers, and all have been bet by more than 75% of bettors who are betting on those games. Despite the one-sided take on these games by the books, the lines have hardly moved. The books are taking a position on these teams today and are not even trying to get balanced action. This is purely anti-public and pro-book on my part. I'm going to be trying this strategy pretty consistently all year in the NFL. We'll see how it goes. I'm confident I'll do better than 55% for the year with this strategy. And if I do that, the cash register will be ringing.

I know this is the pro section, but you guys brought up ND. I'd be interested in what you ND fans think about the fact that black athletes seem to be shying away from Weis and ND. I'm not talking about Demetrious Jones, as good players leave many schools when a young player loses out to a freshman golden boy who will likely occupy a starting position for four years. That's no surprise and kids of all ethnic backgrounds leave programs in that situation. I'm talking about the fact that there are fewer black kids playing and seemingly fewer being recruited every year. Does it have something to do with the Willingham thing? Or is Weis not a friend to the black man? Or is it just coincidence that Weis thinks the most talented kids that he wants to recruit happen to be white? Just curious what ND fans think about this.

x the dreaded double post

Coast2Coast wrote:

All five of the home dogs I am playing this week are undervalued by my numbers, and all have been bet by more than 75% of bettors who are betting on those games.

Hey Coast.

I've seen you reference this kind of stuff before and sorry if you have mentioned it but where do you get this kind of info? How do you know what % of people are betting on what?

I am at best a recreational gambler as my earlier rantings no doubt gave away - strictly a "got a gut feeling" kind of guy from watching a lot of games so excuse my ignorance.