MLB Playoffs

Kick off October with a win or go home game:

Rockies +150 against Padres

Great price. Nice job. Early bird gets the worm. The best I could find after your post was +133 and Padres are dropping like a rock and are under - 130 at some books. I agree with you. Rockies are hottest team in majors right now, they beat Peavey last week and Padres' bats have been anemic lately. Give me that home doggie.

Unfortunately I cannot lock in a game until after 5:30. I was pulling it from the paper.

By the way, I like the Cubs and Indians in series play. Indians are getting 180 for the series and I think they are the better team.

Colorado +133
Colorado-SD OVER 9, +103
Teams just played each other a week ago so the pitchers' stuff will be fresh. This game also is in Colorado. 9 is a low number (though Peavey is the reason).

I will be playing the Indians and Diamondbacks at the best numbers available for their series. The two big public favorites, Yankees and Cubs, will of course be over-priced. I'm waiting to see if I might snag a Dbacks at +120 or higher. Indians at +170 looks especially juicy.

I've been doing live betting on Matchbook and tonight's baseball game is another example of how you can use live betting to your advantage.

Before the game, I bet:
Colorado +133 $500.00 to win $665.00

When Colorado was up one run in the 7th inning and had a runner on 2nd, the line on San Diego was +340. That seemed a little high for a one run lead with these teams...but is not uncommon that the market gets a bit overpriced during a baseball rally. I bought the Padres and evened up the profit potential.

San Diego +340 $260.00 to win $884.00

Now I have this:

If Colorado wins: +665 - $260 = +405
If SD wins: +884 - $500 = +384

I could have held my bet on Colo to the finish, and if they win, you could argue I lost $260 in profit potential. However, the risk is gone and profit is assured. And, as it turned out, the game went to extra innings and who knows who will win. I don't really care now.

Meanwhile, I'm excited that it looks like my $5 under on the Pats/Cincy game is going to pay off!

Just trying to suggest there are different ways to grind a profit. Sometimes, day trading is preferable to investing.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Just trying to suggest there are different ways to grind a profit. Sometimes, day trading is preferable to investing.

No, I appreciate the input, as always. Actually, seeing how much you were guaranteed up, I was curious if you'd take a flyer and drop $50 on Colorado when San Diego went up 2 in the 13th. I'm going to make a few "dry runs" through this sort of procedure before I ever play with real money, especially because of the amounts needed to make it worthwhile, but I'm learning as time goes by.

You're catching on. Yes I did put something on the Rockies. When the Padres took a two-run lead, the line was +520 on the Rockies. It was a beautiful half inning. Then again, there have been plenty of times in which I bought a dog that never came back. It doesn't always work out so beautifully.

Yes it would be a good idea to watch, get a feel for the market and see how the lines move in certain situations. And while football and baseball offer pretty good opportunities for fairly dramatic line movement, the best sport for live betting is basketball. Leads can change quickly and lines can move dramatically in a very short period of time. Getting a team at the beginning of a run or going against a team after they've just had an 8-0 run are decent strategies to profit on the line movement.

Coast2Coast wrote:

You're catching on. Yes I did put something on the Rockies. When the Padres took a two-run lead, the line was +520 on the Rockies. It was a beautiful half inning. Then again, there have been plenty of times in which I bought a dog that never came back. It doesn't always work out so beautifully.

Yes it would be a good idea to watch, get a feel for the market and see how the lines move in certain situations. And while football and baseball offer pretty good opportunities for fairly dramatic line movement, the best sport for live betting is basketball. Leads can change quickly and lines can move dramatically in a very short period of time. Getting a team at the beginning of a run or going against a team after they've just had an 8-0 run are decent strategies to profit on the line movement.

That's probably true, but I'm basketball retarded- I'd do just as well to bet cricket or curling.

Philadelphia Phillies (Hamels) -140 vs. Colorado (Francis), Game 1
Rockies go 13 last night, burn through their entire bullpen, Holliday gets injured on the slide home (he didn't touch the plate BTW) and now has to go east and play Philly early in the day. Hamels looks to be the much better pitcher with home field advantage. I can't help but wonder if the "hot team" angle is keeping this number down. I also can't help but wonder if this number won't be higher by game time. So I'm buying it now.

Series Plays (all at Matchbook)
Arizona +123
Los Angeles Angels + 160
Cleveland +170

Game 1 Wednesday
Philadelphia -140
Los Angeles +161

By the way, if you're sitting in an office or travelling and don't have a TV in front of you to watch the playoff games, you can watch them online through a "pirated" link at channelsurfing.net.

I'm watching it with Spanish announcers through the Dominican Republic right now. I have the sound down anyway. Video is the TBS feed.

http://www.channelsurfing.net/watch-cdn.html

channelsurfing.net also offers links to many football games. If you are somewhere without DTV, try to see if you can find a game you want. Some are available, some aren't. Just depends on where the pirates are on any given day I guess.

The under was 3-0 yesterday, and in Game 1's of playoff series (especially) is historically a great bet.

Today's O/U is as follows:

Col/Phi 10
NY/Cle 8.5
Chi/AZ 8.5

I like the under in all three. I think most likely it will go 2-1 (with maybe Cubs/D-Backs going over).

Several books let you bet the divisional series prices at any time between games. Arizona was the dog in the series (+123) and now up 1-0 in games are a -144 favorite. If you like the Cubs in the series, you can get them now for +141. Red Sox are now -272/+254 for Angels.

Several books let you bet the divisional series prices at any time between games. Arizona was the dog in the series (+123) and now up 1-0 in games are a -144 favorite. If you like the Cubs in the series, you can get them now for +141. Red Sox are now -272/+254 for Angels.

Coast2Coast wrote:

If you like the Cubs in the series, you can get them now for +141.

I do still think the Cubs will win.

Friday, Game 2

Cleveland +115 vs. NYY
WHAT? This is a soft line IMO and I'll be very surprised if this hasn't dropped by game time. In fact, why aren't the Indians favored in Game 2? I guess it's because the oddsmakers know a lot of people are going to bet the public favorite Yankees thinking they won't lose two in a row.

NYY are 10-8 away with Pettite starting. Cleve is 13-4 with Carmona starting at home. Carmona has a better season WHIP (1.21 vs 1.43) and a better 3 game WHIP (0.90 vs 1.39). Carmona has been simply dominant of late. Cleveland has won 15 of last 18 home games. And they are a dog!

Take it even farther Coast, Indians had a great record against lefties and a fantastic record at home. Anyone taking the yanks has to be relying on the myth of Pettite during the postseason. This is one that I would lay HEAVY wood on.

MY GUY has them at +130 so the line has moved even more our way. If I was a little wealthier or a little less fertile I would be making a wager that might get me in trouble. I'll just settle for a steak at a downtown restaurant.

See this is one of the reasons I wish I had a guy. I'm stuck with the offshores and Vegas who have thousands of clients and the lines move slowly. Best I can find is +119. When you have a guy he moves the line more quickly to reflect whatever action he has been taking from the jamokes and mooshes...and in this case, Yankees fans. Might be the same guys, actually. Jamoke=moosh=Yankee fan?

Well then since you like it so much, I just put in a bet that would get you into trouble. I'm not wealthy, but I'm way past the fertility stage and my kids aren't at home anymore. It really is amazing how wealthy one can feel (even if you're not) when kids aren't hitting the wallet every day. I'm hitting the Indians again. I'm not touching the tuition money, though.

Watching the game again online free through the dominican republic feed (spanish audio over the TBS video at channelsurfing.net). The Dominican commercials are really interesting. A lot of very...ahem....attractive women showing up in commercials for all kinds of products. The Presidente beer commercial doesn't make me want to drink the beer. It makes me want to move to the Dominican and party.

Playoff Record 4-2 +2.42

Sunday
Cleveland +177 @ NYY
Cleveland-NYY OVER 9-1/2, -111
Here we go again. The Yankees over-priced. I have a series bet pending on the Indians, so they might as well sweep. Clemens claims he is 100%. The reality is that he has not pitched for a while and when last seen he was not nearly the Clemens of old. Westbrook is erratic and certainly is no great bargain himself. But the question with this play is simple: How is an old man with an extended layoff such a huge price over the streaking talented Tribe? Both pitchers probably won't last long. In a slugfest, why would I not want to take the hotter hitting team getting +177?

I think you have to use this as a 2 shots to win 1 Coast. NY is starting Wang on 3 days rest for the first time in his career after getting shelled by Cleveland. Chamberlin pitched 2 innings yesterday and has gone 4 over the last three days. I cannot imagine him being overly effective and they most likely will have to use him. Byrd, like Westbrook, will give up some runs. He hasn't pitched well lately and pictched poorly in his one start against NY. I expect this to be another slugfest but it is difficult to lay off the Indians at +200 tonight (and I would not be shocked if that number rose.

Playoff Record: 5-4, +1.42

Cleveland-Yankees OVER 10 EV (Greek)
Cleveland +1.5 runs +114 (Matchbook)
Yep. The flightly Byrd and the tired Wang should beget some runs. Taking the run line, though the straight line of +220 is awfully sweet too.

This series was a windfall with huge lines that did not relate to the actual matchup on the field. Good times.

I imagine the Red Sox will be laying huge numbers as well. I give the Indians a fighting chance but I probably will not take the series.

I LOVE the Rockies though.