MLB Playoffs

For a guy who doesn't do much baseball during the year, I'm kind of proud of myself...for at least knowing how to follow others like the Mahi Mahi man during the playoffs. Just call me Mr. October

Baseball Playoffs 7-4-1 +4.26
(Officially on this board, anyway. I won't pull a Stu Gotz and tell you after the fact about winners I had that I didn't post before the games began.)

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I won't pull a Stu Gotz and tell you after the fact about winners I had that I didn't post before the games began

I think baseball is a hard play to begin with because I never feel good enough to think it'd be worth a bet. I'd probably be overly selective.

Rockies +125 over Diamondbacks in the NLCS

For as dominant as the dbacks looked against the Cubs, they really only have one starting pitcher that scares you. After Webb you have the incredibly hittable Davis, the mercurial Hernandez and the better hitter than picther Ownings. That means there will be opportunites to score runs and there is nobody better at that right now than the Rockies. They also happen to be the hottest team in the league and playing with a high level of confidence. The Rockie starting pitching is questionable. However, they just mowed down one of the top hitting teams in the league without any problem. I don't think the d-backs are good enough to take advantage of the rockie dificiencies in pitching. Even if they are, I don't think they can match the offense the rockies will put up. If the Rockies win game 1, I could see a sweep. If not, I see them winning in 6.

I thought this line would be a little more favorable. I'd let it work itself out over the next two days. Maybe you can get it at +130.

By the way, the Indians are only at +150. That seems low based on typical red sox love. Like I said, maybe make a small play on it or leave it alone. There will be opportunities to get great value on individual games in this series.

The sox changed their rotation around for the series. now schilling will pitch game 2 and matsuzaka game 3. I think this helps the indians chances and I would change my thought to a small play at +150.

Where are you getting the Rockies as underdogs in this series? The Rockies are favored at every book I've looked at. The lines I'm seeing are Colorado -120 to -130 for the series or more. I want to bet at your book. I would middle and scalp the hell out of that guy. I would advise you to take the Rockies for the max at +125 from your guy, then go offshore or to Vegas, and bet the same amount for +115 to +120 on the D-backs. You will scalp yourself to an automatic +15 to +25 depending on who wins.

And at least at the places where I can bet, I think that it is wrong to make Colorado favored. With the 2-3-2 home field rotation, starting in Arizona, and last year's Cy Young winner going in at least two starts, I'd make the D-backs slight favorites in this series. Therefore, at +116 or more (best price I see right now), I'll probably be on the D-backs.

Seems to me that the Rockies have become the darlings of many bettors. Yes they are the hot team. But I don't think they should be the favorites.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Where are you getting the Rockies as underdogs in this series? .

I don't know if I was looking at it in the paper, on thegreek or simply just read it incorrectly but it looks like you are correct. I don't like them as much as favorites, but I still like them. I will grant you that you could exchange Rockies for Cubs in some of my analysis and we saw how well that worked for the Cubs. However, the Rockie lineup is better than the Cubs from top to bottom. It is also MUCH more patient. I think the Cubs would have beaten Hernandez in Game 3 with a little more patience.

Anyway, I still like the Rocks.

On further review, I just don't see enough value or separation for me to take either team in the NL series. Rockies are the hotter team, while Ariz has the home field and small pitching edge. I do think the wrong team is favored, but not enough to make it a bet. I'll bet the individual games and totals instead.

Leaning hard to the Indians in the AL Series.

Game 1, NLCS

Colorado +122 (Matchbook)
Coloraado Over 7.5, + 105 (Matchbook)
Parlay: Colorado +120/ Over 7.5 -105 = 3.30/1 (WSEX)

Dog/over and a correlated parlay for game one of the NLCS. I will play correlated parlays like this occasionally, particularly dog/over to a short total. Using a moneyline in a parlay begets true odds, so there is no discount to the parlay as there is when betting point spreads. The logic is simple: Colorado will have to get to Webb to win this game, because the Snakes will likely get to Francis a bit. And they have a history of doing so. Webb was 1-3 with a 5.77 era against Colorado this year. If Colorado wins, I love the chances of this going over the short total. So I'm leveraging (as opposed to hedging) the Colorado play with the over.

I decided to parlay that steak at a downtown restaurant on the rocks in this series. I feel very confident in that one coming in. The Rocks may be overpriced the rest of the series but I would take them in each of these next three games.

Game 1 ALCS:
Cleve +144
Cleve Over 8.5 + 115

I like Colorado in the other game and will live bet them as I can at + odds. Not going to pay the going rate of -115 or higher.

Playoffs: 9-7-1 +4.13

Monday: Cleveland +115
I'll go against the Dice K here.

Arizona + ~ 170
Rockies are the hottest team in baseball, but these teams are pretty even overall. (Or at least I thought they were). Rockies might sweep but this line of +170 for this matchup is just ridiculous. I haven't bet this yet, but will tonight after waiting to see how high it will go as the public is just jumping on the Rockies and driving up the price.

Coast, do you have any numbers on the success of teams in games that they are attempting to close out a sweep?

Well Colorado did what I expected for a nice number. I still have a small play on the Indians in the series. I like the Indians a little tonight at -110. I expect both pitchers to give up some runs. However, Wakefield has not pitched in nearly three weeks, has been injured, and will be pitching in colder than ideal conditions for a knuckleballer (although not too cold). This is one game where I would take a look at the weather report before deciding the size of the play on the indians. If there is wind, rain or temperatures under 60, I don't think Wakefield will make it out of the third. Either way I think he will have a bad game.

It's nice being up 3-1 with a series play. Still, I hardly think this series is over.

That game was really very critical to the Indians with Beckett looming on Thursday. I think the Sox need 8 innings out of him as the bullpen has got to be cashed. I have a feeling he will give it to them to get the victory at -125. However, this one will end in 6 as I expect Carmona to bounce back nicely and the incredibly overrated Schilling to give up 4 or more runs.

Well, you know my feelings for tomorrow's game. There will be a lot of talk about the momentum having been switched. A great pitcher has a way of outpacing momentum (as we saw yesterday). I would say, put all of your football money aside tomorrow and place it on the Indians with Carmona. I think Carmona is going to match the start that Beckett just gave the Sawx.

Playoff Record: 9-9-1 +2.13

World Series Outlook
Rockies are a very generous +210 to win the World Series. That's not just generous, but a bit ridiculous. But the price will get even more ridiculous if the Bosox hold serve behind Beckett in game 1.

Beckett is -200 in game 1. If you think the Rockies have a chance to get to Beckett and win game 1, then I would suggest betting the Rockies in game 1. I think I might do that. But if the Rockies lose that first game, as the odds suggest they will, the series price will be even more generous after game 1. And if that happens, I'll be there to buy the even more inflated series price with the Rockies down 1-0. They have a puncher's chance of winning this series even losing to Beckett in game 1.

Unfortunately I think the fun has run out for Colorado. I'll be rooting for the Rockies, but I don't see it happening. Good luck on the bet Coast!

I won't take a series play as the Red Sox are way overinflated and I don't feel confident with the Rocks. At 210 it would have to be a sure thing, and I don't see the Rockies as pushovers.

Tonight I'll take the Rockies. Why the hell not. Francis has pitched fairly well in the playoffs and the Sox had a much more difficult time with the Indians junkballers than their flamethrowers. If Francis can go 6 I give a slight edge to the Rocks in this series in the bullpen. At +200 the price seems as outrageous as that Indian-Yankee series, and we know how that turned out.

Passed on game 1 side. Will play Rockies in game 2. This is the game they have a good shot to win with Jiminez vs. Shilling. Opened at Boston -178/Rocks +168. I expect to find a little better price on the Rockies before game time.

As predicted, there is a much better price on the Rockies for the Series after losing game 1. I bought some:
Rockies to win Series +325 (Matchbook)

Game 2 WS:
Rockies +184 (Matchbook)
16 cents better by waiting 12 hours. The Boston love is blooming today. Might even find a better price by game time, but I will be busy and can't shop all day. Will buy it here.

Good job on ending up not buying for game 1!