What You Look For In Bowl Games

I wanted to see what people like to key on when handicapping bowl games (other than simply talent on the field).

I use coaches/teams that have experience in bowl games as a factor, especially for later bowl games. I think it takes a certain amount of discipline to practice week after week without a game to break up the monotony. Coaches who have been in bowl situations before most likely have created a program to keep the players focused but not burned out.

On the other hand, I also look for the younger team to get better between the end of the season and the bowl game. I believe the extra time allows coaches to resolve problems in techniques that could not be addressed during the season due to lack of time. However, with older teams those problems most likely were already resolved. I expect a team like the Illini that is full of young talent to really play a strong game.

I also look at the two coaches. I don't look to see who is the better coach. I look to see who might be an innovator as a coach. An innovator will be able to take the month and perfect some plays that have not been attempted the entire season. A guy like Gary Crowton can redraw a playbook in that amount of time. I know not everyone is with me, but I also like Ralph Freidgen in bowls. I would have said the same thing for Chan Gailey if he had not been axed for underwhelming regular seasons.

I don't like gimmic offenses in bowls. The extra time off with a single opponent to focus on allows defensive coaches to really break down the gimmic. That type of offense is usally used because of lack of talent so these players have holes. A smart coach will find them. Navy may be able to withstand this because they run their offense to such perfection. Texas Tech is a little troubling. I would put a big red flag next to Hawaii.

None of these points are determinative. Just some things I think about in evaluating. Anyone else have keys?

Coaches with experience/team with experience are big for me.
USC/Illini is a classic example. The only way USC loses is if the team takes it for granted.

I also look for letdowns - "do we need to be here" Michigan falls into that this year.

Hawaii this year seems like it will not be another Boise like last year. Boise pounded everyone, whereas Hawaii has had a few squeakers.