NFL Week 1

Buying a few now before they move. I'll have other plays but I think these will be higher priced by game time.

Washington -3 vs. Miami
Redskins were a mess last year in so many ways...new coaching staff, offensive line injuries, new offensive scheme, Portis injured, inconsistent QB play, etc. I don't think Joe Gibbs has lost his hall of fame football IQ. He just inherited a bad football team and had a bad situation last year. Miami is in much that same situation this year. I look for significant improvement from the Skins, at least as long as Portis is healthy.

Jacksonville -6.5 vs. Tennessee
Vince Young is an exciting player, but the loss of Travis Henry is going to really hurt the Titans ability to move the ball. No running game to speak of is going to be a big problem against this defense. The Titans are the lowest-ranked team in the NFL by my numbers. They are playing a playoff calibre team on the road and I have to lay less than a TD? I'll take that bet. Some people are questioning the effect of Leftwich being cut. I think it's a positive. The Jaguars appeared to play better with Garrard last year than with Leftwich.

Green Bay - Philadelphia UNDER 43
I think both of these teams are going to have pretty good defenses this year. A month from now, I think this number is going to look cheap as both teams sit in the top ten of defensive statistics.

Denver-Buffalo OVER 37
Here are two teams that I think will have defenses that will be down a notch. Both teams lost key players on defense and I don't think either will be near their level of last year, at least for sure in week 1. I expect both QBs to be better this year too. Cutler has had a full offseason and training camp as the man and Losman is no longer looking behind him. Both teams have solid running games facing teams that will likely yield yards in the run game.

Philadelphia/Green Bay under 43
I love this game too, Coast. Favre is at the end of the line, and McNabb isn't 100% yet. I expect to see a lot of pounding the rock.

Miami +3
I'm taking the points with the better defense and better quarterback. I'm not sold on Jason Campbell, Clinton Portis is always ouchy, and I don't like their receivers. I expect the Fins to win straight up in a low scoring affair.

Seattle -6
Alexander and Hucklebuck are healthy to start the year, so the offense should be rolling. Tampa Bay is a mess. The once mighty defense is a thing of the past. The receiving core is pathetic, Cadillac is over-rated, and they have four quarterbacks, but none are any good. Seattle is one of the toughest places to play.

Seattle -5.5, -101 (Matchbook)
Waiting a little got me a better price. It could go lower, but sliding under the key number of 6 was key to waiting here. I'm not sure what Jeff Garcia is going to bring to Tampa Bay, but with that offensive line, he may not last long enough to know. I do know what the Seahags have when they're healthy, which they weren't for much of last year.

Cleveland +4.5, -105 vs. Pittsburgh (Matchbook)
Pitt has a new coaching staff, new schemes and is on the road facing their most bitter historic rival. Too many points. I'll take value as I find it with a home dog against a new coaching staff.

Indy-New Orleans UNDER 53.5/54/etc.
Under 27 1st half (hope to find a 28 by game time)

Not sure what number I will buy this at, but I am in Vegas and will be going around and shopping for the best price about an hour or two before gametime for a first half and game under bets. I won't have time to get back to my room and post the numbers I bought at, so I'm just telling you I will be playing UNDER. Over in this game is the first square bet of the year. There is no value in playing any NFL total over 50 in my opinion. People who play this game over are betting based on their perceptions of how the game will be played. Two high-flying offenses, Indy with bad defense, etc. etc. That's why they are squares. Their perceptions drive their bets. I may rarely bet in part on perceptions in college, but even more rarely in the NFL. I usually bet on value and percentages, not perceptions. Sure, there are plenty of games involving these teams recently that have gone over 50, but that doesn' t mean this one will. I may be wrong, but the value is with the under. The books will also clearly be with the under too as they continue to take all the over money they can, even though they have already pushed this number up 3 points. One sportsbook manager told me last night that this total is the first sucker bet of the year. Suckers win sometimes, but the % are clear: In the long run, playing overs like this at numbers like this, you will lose. I try not to be on the same side as the suckers. That's why you will see many plays from me that are opposite of the Joe Public square plays. Just wanted to explain. Good luck all...

NFL Week 1 Grand Salami under 651 (bookmaker)

I expect to see more unders than overs.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Indy-New Orleans UNDER 53.5/54/etc.
Under 27 1st half (hope to find a 28 by game time)

Not sure what number I will buy this at, but I am in Vegas and will be going around and shopping for the best price about an hour or two before gametime for a first half and game under bets. I won't have time to get back to my room and post the numbers I bought at, so I'm just telling you I will be playing UNDER. Over in this game is the first square bet of the year. There is no value in playing any NFL total over 50 in my opinion. People who play this game over are betting based on their perceptions of how the game will be played. Two high-flying offenses, Indy with bad defense, etc. etc. That's why they are squares. Their perceptions drive their bets. I may rarely bet in part on perceptions in college, but even more rarely in the NFL. I usually bet on value and percentages, not perceptions. Sure, there are plenty of games involving these teams recently that have gone over 50, but that doesn' t mean this one will. I may be wrong, but the value is with the under. The books will also clearly be with the under too as they continue to take all the over money they can, even though they have already pushed this number up 3 points. One sportsbook manager told me last night that this total is the first sucker bet of the year. Suckers win sometimes, but the % are clear: In the long run, playing overs like this at numbers like this, you will lose. I try not to be on the same side as the suckers. That's why you will see many plays from me that are opposite of the Joe Public square plays. Just wanted to explain. Good luck all...

nice call here....wish I had read this before I took the overs.

Who are bettors playing today? Conversely, which teams do the sports books really want to win? Whenever more than 75% of bettors on a game are on one side, it's what I call a red flag. If it's over 85%, it's a danger sign to me. I'm on Seattle today. I don't feel real good about the fact that I am on the side of Joe Public today and have taken back some of my initial bet. That is the only one though. By my numbers, I actually leaned to all the other opponents of the popular favorites today. Here is a snapshot of offshore betting activity two hours before kickoff for the big public favorites. It's not a coincidence that all of the popular public favorites are favorites.

Steelers 89% (62,000 bets)
Seattle 86% (60,000 bets)
Philadelphia 79% (71,000 bets)
Minnesota 79% (43,000 bets)
Denver 78% (58,000 bets)
San Diego 78% (68,000 bets)
New England 75% (76,000 bets)

One more today..

Chicago-San Diego UNDER 42-1/2
Two good/great defenses and two offenses that are a bit unpredictable in game 1. Wrecks Grossman is very unpredictable, particularly against great defenses and on the road. He could very easily pee down his leg. And let's not forget that Ron Rivera is DC for the Chargers and he knows da Bears O very, very well. And while Ladanian may be the best RB in the NFL, the Chargers offense is now being led by Norv Turner. To expect SD's offense to click in game 1 as it did last year under a different coaching staff is a tall expectation IMO. This one could be a grinder. First one to 17 or 20 wins.

3-3-1 Sunday, 5-3-1 for the week and the season

Taking both dogs Monday night.
Baltimore +3, -118 (Matchbook)
Baltimore's D is the best unit on either field tonight and I'll back them and the McNairs with perntz. I'm also interested to see whether the Bungles defense is going to be the same ineffective group they were for much of last season. Two years ago they were outstanding because they had a huge TO advantage. Last year, not so good. Baltimore also has upgraded its O, I believe, with McGahee now toting the pig.

Arizona +3-1/2, +100 (Matchbook)
I'm not convinced San Fran is going to be nearly the same prolific running team as last year (at least tonight) with Gore nursing a broken hand. I'll give the edge to Zona's offense over the 49ers' and rate the defenses close enough to take the 3 and a hook.

Oy, watch your "Bungles" references! I've killed for less.

As a degenerate gambler with no allegiance to any team, I don't mean to offend the sensibilities of fans of any team. All teams that fail to cover are bunglers to me.

San Fran-Arizona UNDER 23-1/2, 1st half
Offenses probably are getting the primary interest of many bettors in this game, but as noted, I'm not convinced Gore is near 100%. A few things here. First, first half unders went 12-1-1 this weekend so far. Dallas last night was the only first half total to go over the closing number. That is actually not all that unusual for week 1. In addition here, we have a play-caller, the 49ers' new offensive coordinator, Jim Hostler,who has never called a play on the NFL level. Why would we expect him to have brilliant play calling in the first half of the first game? Zona also has a new coaching regime. I don't expect them to be particularly effective early either. My suspicion is that both teams will work hard to establish the run early. Roll clock roll.

Quote :

As a degenerate gambler with no allegiance to any team, I don't mean to offend the sensibilities of fans of any team. All teams that fail to cover are bunglers to me.