College & NFL Week 5

Last week: College 2-5; NFL 6-2
YTD: College: 12-17-2; NFL: 26-11-1

Good thing I had the Illinois-Georgia Tech moneyline parlay on Saturday at +440. Otherwise, Saturday would have been miserable.

Penn State -7 vs. Iowa
This one is headed higher, so I'm getting this early. PSU is coming off a loss, so Iowa will have their full attention. Iowa is showing the signs of a team that's done. Injuries and suspensions have decimated their offense and their defense was run over by Indiana. Most importantly, I see value in this line. This line was about what I would have made it in week 1. I have PSU about the same as week 1, but with all the injuries and the consistent failures of Iowa to meet expectations (cover the spread) I now make Iowa 5.5 points lower than week 1.

How is it humanly possible that you are 26-11-1in NFL plays this year? That's absurd!

New England - Cincinnati UNDER 54
This play has nothing to do with the very dim view I have of the Cincy defense. Nor does it have anything to do with the positive view I have of the New England offense. I just think this number is too high. Cincy showed how average its offense is when it played Seattle last week. New England's D is better than the Seahags' D. It's possible that Cincy might actually develop a game plan emphasizing the run tonight, figuring the best way to keep New England from scoring is to eat up clock and not let them get the ball. They'd be right about that. Brady could have a field day here, but it will take both teams scoring to send this over.

TCU +3-1/2 @ Wyoming
Wrong team favored by my numbers. Over-compensation in the line for the injury to the TCU QB.

Irish Boy wrote:

How is it humanly possible that you are 26-11-1in NFL plays this year? That's absurd!

It's just short-term variation from the mean. I don't get caught up in the hot streaks or the inevitable cold streaks either. I'm a 54-56% handicapper over the last 25 years, depending on the sport. And in my observation, anybody who tells you they are better than that over the long term (500 -1000 or more plays) is full of horse dung.

Sure we all have our hot streaks. I've had my share. A lot of people have. But I've had plenty of seasons just above, at or below 50%. The good thing for me is I haven't had a big losing season in many years. I've had losing years in some sports, but not seriously bad ones. Overall, I am strongly +, which is why I keep doing this and grinding out a profit.

The most profitable gamblers in the world do 55% over their lifetime. They grind profits one edge at a time. Remember that the next time somebody tells you they have a special talent for sports gambling. If they are in the middle of a hot streak, it's just variation from the mean.

One thing everyone should do is build a spreadsheet and record every bet you make. Study it regularly just as if you would if you were a financial investor buying stocks and bonds. Know exactly how you are doing with EVERY play. Know what works for you...are you better betting overs, unders, home favorites, home dogs, football, hoops, baseball? You should know your strengths. After about 500 bets (maybe a few years for most people) a pattern will start to emerge. And you will realize that you can make a nice profit doing 55%.

So thanks for the kind words. But it's just short-term variation. I work hard at this and I hope I can finish the season with a profit that justifies the time I spent on it. That will be success. And it will be something that more than 90% of sports bettors will not achieve.

I really like Green Bay -3. Thoughts?

This is on my list of possible plays this week. I've gone against the Bears three straight weeks, so why stop now? With the cluster injuries on the Bears, it makes sense to go against them. The matchup of Favre versus the depleted Bears secondary is especially enticing also. The rating of the Bears may actually be lower than I have them due to the defensive injuries, while my rating on the Packers has an up arrow. Even so, I make the line 4 based on the teams' performance thus far and not adding anything extra for the injuries or matchup factors. So if you can get - 3, it's a fair price. I would not pay 3.5.

Tonight's college football game might be a good one for live betting or to watch the live lines move to get a feel for how the odds change during a football game. The Marshall-Memphis game is a short line with a high total. Who could possibly guess how these two bad teams will play? I won't even guess at a pick at the winner. Marshall has a bottom five defense and Memphis has all the issues surrounding the murdered teammate (in which another teammate may be involved) and this is Memphis' third game in 10 days. I do lean to the UNDER in this game, but not sure yet if I'll play it at 60.5 or 60. It's starting to drop though.

However, with a posted 60 total, both teams could score a lot of points and if the game goes back and forth, there could be some decent + odds available on the team that's behind after the other team scores. This might be a useful game to watch the live lines move (matchbook.com). I plan to be live betting it and hopefully I can scalp it.

Saints-Panthers UNDER 44.5
The Panthers with David Carr at QB? Bad. The Saints offense? Bad. And probably worse without Deuce. I suppose the week off will help the Saints find their mojO, but you have to have two teams scoring some points to send this over. Neither defense is great but to expect that both offenses will light it up is questionable.

last week 2-1

YTD 9-8

last 2-1

thanks to ND for throwing that pick on the precipice of the over versus Purdue, absolutely terrible there


Wisco +2.5 @ Illinois- I am an Illini fan, but invariably what goes up must come down here. Wisco is too big up front and to ask the Illini freshmen to respond again (great perfromance v penn state) is just to ask them too much here. Illini O have averaged a blistering 413 ypg but have been weak versus the pass, the Illini D has held teams to 95.4 yards on the ground. Wisco will roll over that number in a low scoring Wisco win.

Miami -6.5 @ North Carolina- Miami comes in winners of 3 in a row and have shown an ability to move the ball (throwing out the debacle v. Oklahoma they have scored 31,23,34 and 24 pts per game) NC losers of 4 in a row going into this one, I do not see the tarheel up for this game, CB Williams is out for the season with a knee, they came close versus virginia and kept within 7 versus a down VT Hokie team, Miami in a rout here, sorry tarheels. NC D is giving up 347.8 yrd per game, Miami D is giving up 290 per game

Bama -11 at Houston- Bama coming off 2 heart smashing losses (OT v UGA and the problems at FSU) A bama D that gives up 331 ypg....a travesty..how about a laugher where your offense (414 yards per game) can match up against a D that gives up 367 yards per game. Houston has a high power offense (avg 483 yards per game)..then again east carolina, Col state, tulane and oregon is not bama. Turnovers will make the difference here and look for bama to show the ability to extend a lead on the road.

LSU -9 v. Florida- the number may be too high here off of the Auburn Surprise...I dont think it will matter. LSU (basically a pro defense here) is aching for a chance to blow Tebow out of the water. I think they get that chance, love the light, and the heat and the national spotlight and show everyone why they are the #1 team in the land.....say what you want about Tommy Trojan out there, LSU has a weaker offense than D, but if the tiger D stays healthy, there is no reason not to give them that crystal football now. Sabu says blowout. its great having those awesome receivers, but if you have 2 guys in your mug 2 seconds after the snap, it aint helping much

NY Giants -3, -120 (Greek)
Green Bay -3, -114 (Matchbook)
I believe both of these are headed to 3.5. The difference between 3 and 3.5 in the NFL is MUCH more than a half point might suggest in terms of spread cover %. I hate laying the hook and try to avoid it at all costs by shopping. Both have a little value, Green Bay also has a strong situation (Bears cluster injuries).

The rest of my Sunday card will likely consist of some (or all) of these. Watching line moves; a few of these might reach/pass key numbers.
St. Louis (Might be my best bet of the week. At 3.5 one place already and I expect it to close at 3.5 or even higher)
Kansas City
Houston
Atlanta
Buffalo
Denver

Penn State just moved to 9.5. WTH? Does the Iowa team have the pox or something? Looks like I'll be playing a middle on that one....

New Mexico State - Boise State OVER 61
This one won't get much attention as it is Sunday night at the same time as Bears-Packers. This will be a track meet on the blue rug. New Mexico State can't stop anybody and will throw nearly every down. It's Mumme's chance to showcase his act on national TV. He won't disappoint. Will he go for it on 4th and 10 in his own territory? Wouldn't be the first time. I will be very surprised if this isn't several points higher by kickoff, which will then offer a decent middle opportunity.

Illinois vs. Wisconsin
A year ago, the Illini beat PSU every possible way but the score. This year, they did both as 3 point home dogs. It really wasn't a surprise to me. Heck, I bet them to win outright.

When I updated my power ratings on Sunday, encompassing box score stats, score and spread coverage, my PR for this game came out to Illinois -3. Right on the money with the opening number. I am one of the few who thinks that, apparently. I have heard and read nothing this week from anyone who thinks this is the right line or who likes Illinois. I cannot remember a top five team ever being an underdog to an unranked team.

I simply am not impressed with Wisky. This is not last year's Badgers team. If it weren't for three defensive penalties on that final drive, they don't beat Michigan State last week. Sparty outgained Bucky by nearly 100 yards. PJ Hill is not nearly as dominant as he was last year. I think Illinois is quicker with their skill positions vs. the WIsky D and I think Illinois has the D to keep the Wisky running game from overpowreing them. They have not performed well against teams with mobile QBs that can stretch their D. UNLV and The Citadel both moved the ball on Wisky. Juice or McGee will stretch them in ways they haven't seen. Mendenhall, Juice and Benn all are legitimate threats that opponents have to game-plan to stop.

I think this is a classic situation where power ratings and the betting line reflect how teams are playing now, but bettors' memories are still slotting these teams based on performances in recent years. I remember, though, that one year ago in Madison, Illinois had the Badgers down 21-3. That Illinois team didn't know how to win a big game. This team is showing it just might.

I hate that the Illini are a favorite here. It changes the dynamics of the game a little. It also certainly helps get Wisky's attention (as if they need it). I wish the Illini were 3 point dogs. I'd bet them to win outright again. I do think they have the better team. They don't have the better coach though. And that's a concern.

I probably won't bet this game as there just is very little value in doing so. I do like Illinois to win though. And I am probably one of the few bettors on the planet to think that, too. Over 75% of bets so far are on Wisconsin. I wouldn't be surprised if it passes 80.

Illini 31, Wisconsin 27

Coast2Coast wrote:

Penn State just moved to 9.5. WTH? Does the Iowa team have the pox or something? Looks like I'll be playing a middle on that one....

New Mexico State - Boise State OVER 61
This one won't get much attention as it is Sunday night at the same time as Bears-Packers. This will be a track meet on the blue rug. New Mexico State can't stop anybody and will throw nearly every down. It's Mumme's chance to showcase his act on national TV. He won't disappoint. Will he go for it on 4th and 10 in his own territory? Wouldn't be the first time. I will be very surprised if this isn't several points higher by kickoff, which will then offer a decent middle opportunity.

You are right about Hal Mumme. He takes more chances than any coach I have ever seen.

Season 23-26-4
Last week- 7-5-1

Arizona -1 at St. Louis (Pinnacle) Soft line, and I expect it to move. If not, I'll be more than happy to ride it out.

Tampa Bay +11 at Indy (Pinnacle) I'm really hoping that this one sets up a middling opportunity, especially after the big win over Denver today for the Colts, but I'll be more than happy just to keep it. I don't think people realize that Tampa is pretty OK this year.

San Diego/Denver OVER 42 (Olympic) I love teams that can move the ball on the ground at will to cover overs, since they can't sit on the ball without accidentally getting yardage. I see this as back and forth all afternoon.

Green Bay -3 vs. Chicago (bodog) Wow, does this break my heart. Do I really have to explain it?

Buffalo +11 vs. Dallas (5Dimes) too many points for a home team on Monday night. Of course, that's what I said last week too.

Carolina/New Orleans UNDER 44 David Carr is our quarterback! I still think it's possible New Orleans can put up some points. Carolina will not. Therefore...

New Orleans -3 vs. Carolina Come on, they're facing a David Carr led team.

Jacksonville -2 at Kansas City I'd think this was a trap game, but the money seems to be coming in even on this one, so I guess the public is split. I know that Kansas city beat San Diego, but... let's be serious! It's Kansas City! Jacksonville is underrated, plus they are coming off their bye and should be ready to go. I'm pretty confident in this one.

Washington -3.5 vs. Detroit Lost in the mayhem of Detroit scoring 37 last week against the Bears is that 1.) they had only 3 points going into the 4th quarter, and 2.) the Bears secondary was starting invalids and quadrapalegics. Plus, that Detroit O-line looked terrible last week, and the secondary is Washington's defensive strength. Washington also has enough weapons on offense to run up some points. Washington is also coming off the bye. Take the points at home and root for the hogs.

North Carolina +7 vs. Miami This one is a pure market play. The books opened this one at -8 Miami, and money started pouring in for the Hurricanes. So what'd the books do? They lowered the number of points. If the books think this is a trap game, so do I.

Baylor +8.5 vs. Colorado Another market play, with books lowering the spread even with money coming in on the Buffalos. I'm wondering whether Colorado is overvalued after the big win vs. Oklahoma, and I'm also wondering whether this could be a big letdown game on the road at Baylor.

New Mexico State/Boise State OVER 61 This game won't get much attention because it's on Sunday night, but it's going to be a track meet, pure and simple. (I'm riffing of you guys on this one)

Coast2Coast wrote:

So if you can get - 3, it's a fair price. I would not pay 3.5.

I can only get 3.5. Would you buy the 1/2 point? I'm leaning in that direction.

btw - there's another message board I look at and there's a guy there who used to post as "Coast2Coast". I guess it's a common message board moniker.

First time I've heard there is another message board poster with the same name. I have been on a few other gambling boards over the years. I am aware that there is a ticket broker company by that name on the west coast of Canada. Wasn't aware of anyone else...

Buying the 1/2...hmmm. Yes I would, but I assume that your book will charge you 25 cents for the privilege. That makes this bet much less appealing. How much will it cost you? -135? More? At that point, you have to think whether buying the Packers to win outright at -175 or so is a better bet.

IrishBoy, perhaps you can PM me and tell me how you can bet at Pinnacle? They have been closed to US customers for six months or more. I loved that book, but their lines might as well be make believe now because I can't bet them. If you don't mind, perhaps you can tell me how you're doing it.

Also, I went through the line history from Pinnacle and it did open at -1, -125, but moved off that number on Sunday night. I assume you bought it then, because all I'm seeing is 3 and 3.5 at Pinnacle after Sunday night.

Kentucky +4.5, +114 @ South Carolina (Matchbook)
South Carolina is steaming apparently, as I get +odds and 4.5...just a short time after Chus bought SC from 3.5 to 3. Edge to Kentucky offense and ever so slight edge to SC defense. Coaching edge of course to the evil Genius, but I think the EG, as usual, is a little bit over-priced at this number. Passing the key numbers of 3 and 4 is beautiful. Getting it at +114 makes this a decidedly +EV bet IMO. I just realized it's been awhile since I've seen the Spurrier visor get thrown to the ground. That would be nice to see tonight.

I think NSJ is being a smartass, Coast.

Duh. Thanks Irish. You got me J. I wasn't even thinking of THAT board. Earth to Coast. By the way, J, I still owe you that after-work beer.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Duh. Thanks Irish. You got me J. I wasn't even thinking of THAT board. Earth to Coast. By the way, J, I still owe you that after-work beer.

I've gotten into a bad habit of having a beer or two at CJ's after work. Nice to catch a little bit of the playoffs before I head home!

To further examine your question, J, let's do the math using real NFL results from 1990-2006 of actual win percentages at certain spread and moneyline numbers. (Taken from tables in the book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong). The bottom line is that if you can buy the half to 3 for 125 or less, do it. If the cost is higher than that, you have a negative expected value. The best alternative may be to buy the moneyline.

Here is the math for your various alternatives:

1) The win probability % of NFL moneylines of -178 (roughly equivalent to -3.5, -110) is 64%. 64 times you will win $100. 36 times you will lose $178.
(64X100) + (36X-178) = 6400 - 6408 = -8
The net expected value of this moneyline bet is to lose $8 every 100 bets, or an EV of $99.92 or a -EV of $.08. That is very close to a break-even bet, but is marginally negative EV.

2) Buy a half point to -3 for 25 cents to push the total price to $135 to win $100. Historical NFL data shows that 3 point favorites were 166-130-40, or 56.08%. Under this scenario, 56.08 times you will win $100 and 43.92 times you will lose $135.
(56.08 x 100) + (43.92 x 135) = 5608 -5929.29 = -321.29
The net expected value of this bet to buy a half and pay a total of 135 is to lose $321.29 every 100 bets.

3) Don't buy the half point and stick with a bet of -3.5 at -110. Historical NFL data shows that 3.5 point favorites were 108-129, or 45.5% (See why I don't like laying 3.5?)

So if you bet $110 on Green Bay -3.5 100 times, 45.5 times you will win $100 and 54.5 times you will lose $110.
(45.5 x 100) + (54.5 x -110) = 4550 - 5995 = -1445.
The net expected value of this bet is to lose $1445 every 100 bets.

......
Now let's consider the value of being able to buy a line at 3 at -110 or -120. I know that's not an alternative for you now, but -120 on Green Bay was available earlier in the week.

4) 3 point favorites in the NFL cover 56.08% of the time. So if you bet 100 times $110 to win $100 , 56.08 times you will win and 43.92 times you will lose.
(56.08x100) + (43.92 x -110) = 5608 - 4831.20 = + 776.80.
The next expected value of betting a 3 point favorite in the NFL at -110 is to win $776.80, or a +EV of 7.76.

5) If you paid $120 on a 3 point favorite, it is +EV:
(56.08X100) + (43.92 x -120) = 5608 - 5270.40 = +337.60, or a +EV of 3.37.

6) At -125, buying the half point to 3 becomes a marginal +EV
(56.08 x 100) + (43.92 x - 125) = 5608 - 5490 = +118 = EV +1.18

7) At -130, buying the half point becomes a -EV bet
(56.08 x 100) +(43.92 x -130) = 5608 - 5709.60 = -101.60 = EV - $1.01

........
So, the bottom line of all this is that if it costs you $130 or $135 /100 to buy the half point, your better option is to buy the Packers on the moneyline at -178 or less. If it costs you a total of $125/100 or less to buy the half point, do it.

Which is spot on to your initial analysis. Thanks, Coast! I owe you the beer at CJ's! . . . because Art won't buy us one on the house!

Actually, Coast, that's some impressive analysis. Do you mind if I share that, ahem, elsewhere?