College & NFL Week 5

That's fine, J. Use it and post it where you wish.

One more thing, to clarify: I don't think it is ever a good idea to knowingly make a -EV bet. Thus, I should have said that it makes sense to take the moneyline (rather than a -130 or -135 buy) if you can get it for LESS than -178. At -177 ML, the win percentage is still 64%, but the $1 difference in price makes it a +2.8 cent EV, rather than a -8 cent EV.

(64 x 100) + (36 x -177) = 6400 - 6372 = +28

More on Buying Half-Points

The data I gave you above relates to home team favorites of -3. That is the case with this week’s Green Bay – Chicago game. If you go through the data for both home favorites and road favorites and all the possibilities and outcomes for 2.5, 3 and 3.5 point spreads, the bottom line is this: There are four situations for which it is worthwhile paying -125 or less to buy a half point: to go from -3.5 to -3, to go from -3 to -2.5, to go from +2.5 to +3 and to go from +3 to +3.5.

Buying half points on other numbers
Some books charge only 10 cents to buy a half point. If your book charges more than 10 cents, then there is no other situation in which you should buy a half-point in the NFL. If your book charges you only 10 cents to buy a half, then there are a few other situations worth considering:

If the spread is 7 or 14, the game has been ending in a push about 6% of the time. If you can buy a half point for ten cents to gain a tie or a win on the 7 or 14, you should consider buying the half point. It is a marginally +EV. If you have to pay more than ten cents, don’t do it.

Buying a half point for ten cents when the spread is 17 (5% push rate) is approximately break-even. If you have to pay more than ten cents, don’t do it.

It is not worth paying ten cents for a half point on any numbers except 3,7,14 and 17.

One final note: this analysis only applies to the NFL. It does not apply to college or any other professional football spreads.

If I can't win with all this info, I'm in trouble.

Thanks, Coast!

Here is another piece of info. The line has dropped back down to Packers -3, -125 at Olympic and other places. When the line went to 3.5, it predictably hit a resistance point among some sharps who buy dogs when they go to 3.5 (remember the data for 3.5 point favorites?). We saw this also this week with St. Louis. Arizona went to 3.5 and sharps immediately hit it back to 3 - 20/25. If you like the Packers, you may be able to again find your strike price now at -3/-125....

Note however that this game is now one of the most popular public bets of the week. 81% of bets on this game are on the Packers. I usually don't like to be on the side of the public. With a sharp buyback at 3.5 and 81% of bets on the Pack, this one is shaping up as a classic sharps vs. squares tussle.

The Giants are an 83% public play. There is resistance at 3.5 there as well.

And I bought both the Giants and Packers based on my line numbers. Things that make you second-guess yourself.

On Sunday, I had the feeling that this would be the toughest week of the year so far in the NFL. I'm getting that feeling even more now. I'm treading lightly this week....

Coast, I agree about the lines this week. Lots of tough lines that I am avoiding like the plague, however, there are quite a few juicy college lines. The only game that I really love is Baltimore. I got them at -3 when the lines opened. I don't see how Trent Dilfer moves the ball against the Raven.

Illinois Moneyline -125
I could have bet Illinois -2.5 at -110 or take the moneyline at -125. No brainer. Illini win the game. I won't worry about by how many.

NFL
New Orleans -3 vs. Carolina
With the bye week to sort out the team's problems, I expect a big effort from the Saints. Carolina also had a team meeting this week to try to right their ship, but their ship is being driven by David Carr. If the Saints can't win in this spot, I'll probably write them off for quite a while.

St. Louis +3-1/2, +102
This one sets up and feels an awful lot like Cleveland vs. Cincy in week 2. Remember that one? Cleveland had no chance with a new QB. They were coming off a bad loss, having to change QBs, etc. SL has those problems too, plus key injuries in the offensive line and media "experts" are telling us that this SL team might only win a few games all year. We also get the added angle of the Cardinals returning to SL with former Ram QB Warner, blah blah blah. I've been on Arizona a few times already this year and I'll be on them more. But what exactly has put Arizona into a class in which they can lay 3 and a hook on the road against anybody? Both teams have had some tough opponents, but SL is coming home after a tough roadie and Zona is on the road after a big win. This just feels like a flat spot for Arizona and an up spot for the Rams. It's also a spot in which they are laying a bit too much wood. Road favorites of 3.5 in the NFL are historically a -EV play. I'm not sure when the last time Arizona was in this position, but it's been quite a while.

Seattle +7, -120 (WSEX)
This wasn't a play at 6, but became one when I was able to buy to 7 for the right price. Steelers were exposed a bit last week after a couple easy games.

That Boise-NMS game was pretty ridiculous. The NMS QB was injured in the first quarter and the backup was horrible. After he threw two picks and Boise was up 28-0, Mumme just gave up. They ran the ball into the line most of the last three quarters. THey threw only 28 passes the entire game, even though they were behind the entire game. It was clear they were not going to try to score or run their usual offense. Boise got up 51-0 and then emptied their bench. Hard to go over 61 when only one team cares about scoring.

The Dallas/Buffalo game has been pure gold for a guy trying out his first live betting. What started as a $20 bet on Bills +500 has turned into a guaranteed $50 ($56.10 if the Bills win, to be exact) on either side of the money line. I may call it a night,or I may wait to see what opens up. But I had a good week tonight.

nice job IB. Profit taking is a good thing.

Irish Boy wrote:

The Dallas/Buffalo game has been pure gold for a guy trying out his first live betting. What started as a $20 bet on Bills +500 has turned into a guaranteed $50 ($56.10 if the Bills win, to be exact) on either side of the money line. I may call it a night,or I may wait to see what opens up. But I had a good week tonight.

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