College & NFL Picks, Week 7

College: Last week: 4-2; YTD: 19-21-2
NFL: Last week: 2-5-1; YTD: 32-19-2

Sunday was a disaster. We move on.

Following on my comments about market pricing last week...There is an interesting situation with the Bears-Eagles game this week. The line opened 4.5 to 5. Now 5 is widely available and it's likely to steam to 6. Last Sunday, there were two strong moves (that both won) with money on the Eagles and against the Bears. Bettors remember those two winning line moves and likely will steam this one. I don't know the right side, but it seems certain that many people will buy bad numbers. Bets like Bears +4.5 or Eagles -6 would be bad bets in this week's market. But many will make them.

Already posted:

New England -14, -110 at Miami

TheGreek opened the Pats game for next week at -14 -110. Needless to say I locked it in. Some books already have this game at -17, and at the rate this is going it might be -64 points at -220. If it goes to -17.5 with a solid vig I'll be a happy man.

Oakland -3 +110 vs. KC

This line is going to drop before gameday, but I'll trade the points for the better payout. A little bit too much love for KC after the Cincy win, especially on the road, and a little bit too much hate for Oakland after they were gashed by LT.

Tampa +125 vs. Detroit (Matchbook). This opened at -2 and is down to -1.5 or -1 at a lot of books. I think it'll hold at -1 when it get's there, but that's all moot anyway. TB is, by far, the better team here. Football Outsiders have TB ranked 5th in DVOA (defense value-over-adjustment), which means that, roughly, TB's individual plays are the 5th most successful in the league. Detroit is ranked 24th. The difference in the level of success of these two teams, to date, is enough that I'm willing to take TB on the road against a Detroit team off the bye. I think that +125 is the best moneyline I can hope to lock in at this point.

Connecticut +149 ML vs. Louisville
I could take the + 3.5 currently available, but I won't. Don't need em. I make this line pick so I'll play the moneyline with the home team. I'm not impressed with Louisville, particularly their defense. They got a gift last Saturday from Cincy's 4 TOs. Cincy out-gained them, just as Utah did the week before. Home mojo on this Friday night TV game also worth something.

Kentucky +7 vs. Florida
If it weren't for those four turnovers against South Carolina (three of which were either returned for TDs or directly were converted into points) the Cats would be undefeated and this line would not be 7. Kentucky showed against LSU that it could play with anybody...at home, anyway. If Woodsen leads them to a W here against the defending champs, he's got to be considered a top Heisman contender.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Kentucky showed against LSU that it could play with anybody...at home, anyway. .

And Florida showed the week before that it could play with anyone on the road in its 3 point loss to LSU. Florida could have won that game by double digits and their D put a beating on LSU that made last week's Kentucky upset possible. Also in that S. Car game, the turnovers did keep it close, but USC was able to drive on Kentucky at will in the 4th quarter. I don't know if I would play this one but I would not be on Kan-tuk.

As an aside on the Eagles notes, the Eagels covered only because the Jets chose to go for it on 4th and goal with about 5 minutes left. If they kick the field goal, that game is a push or win for the Jets (depending on the number).

If you think that dogs, and especially really ugly dogs, provide nice value in the NFL, this is a great week for you. This looks like the best week since week 2. Look at these games and the prices we probably will get on them...

Arizona +8' or higher. Isn't it funny how a few weeks ago, so many bettors loved the Cardinals? Their D is still all right. The QB uncertainty creates this number. But somebody will take the snaps. Who suddenly made the Redskins a top five team to be laying more than a TD?

Falcons +10. I hope it gets to ten. It should. After that horrible excuse on Monday night national TV, bettors will be flocking to bet against them. And I expect we will hear some "the Saints are back" talk this week. Question: Can you ever remember a one-win team in week 7 laying double digits?

Buffalo +3-1/2. I'll wait for the hook. I was more impressed by the Bills two weeks ago vs. the Cowboys (even in that loss) than I have been in any game this year Baltimore has played. Ravens also have played the weakest schedule in the league.

Vikings. Will we get +10 here? If the Bears game didn't get bettors' attention to the potential of the Vikings and the fact they have a running back that can take over a game, this game should.

Dolphins +17+. As Irish Boy has suggested, the moneyline is also worthy of consideration. I really don't know if the Pats are over-priced at 17 as I am not sure how high the number will go. But this seems like a great spot for a flat one from them.

49ers +10. The Monday night game will likely lead many people to believe the Giants are better than they are.

Texans ML. Already value in this line (Houston should be favored by 1)and it will only get better as people see Vince Young will be back under center for the Titans.

Bears +6. The Bears are hot/cold/hot/cold. The Eagles have real problems with teams with pass rushes. The Bears do have that. Yes, the Bears are mediocre. Mediocrity covers.

Rams +10. Backing winless teams is not a bad idea, especially playing this Seahawk team. Did anybody catch how bad the Seahags looked Sunday night? And they're laying doubles?

Broncos +3'. Bettors will remember how Denver was rolled in their last game. I remember how average the Stillers looked in their only road game (at Arizona).

Jags +3-1/2. I think I've bet the Jags vs. the Colts every time the last few years at Jax. The talking heads will be all over the Colts and tell us how this line is "soft". Yeah right.

This will be a dog week, I think. I expect these 11 plays will go 7-4 or something like that. And even if they don't, buying value at the right prices can and does serve me well over the long run, even if not for one week.

Arizona +8.5 @ Washington
It's Quarterback Roulette: Kurt Warner, Tim Rattay, Tim Hasselbeck. Who is it going to be? Warner would be better of course, even with a torn left elbow (non-throwing). But even with Rattay, this is too many points. If Warner practices and they announce he will start, this will go toward 7. With Warner, I make this line 4. With Rattay, 6.

Shawn Springs likely out and Boldin likely to play are also plusses in your analysis

Bodog had New England at +17.5, -115 at one point, and I thought for sure that it would settle there. Now, it seems like almost every book has settled on -16.5. I'm hoping that I didn't miss my chance to play Miami +17.5, along with my -14 NE play, but I've decided I am going to take half a unit on Miami at +1300.

I also ordered a couple of the books you recommended a while back, Coast, so I'll let you know whether that has any impact on my success.

It's only Wednesday and the public doesn't really start betting until later in the week. I believe it will be at least 17 or higher Saturday or early Sunday. For games like this, Saturday night or early Sunday is often the optimum time to buy. I would expect there to be a sharp buyback at some point on Sunday, but the sharps will likely wait until they think the market has topped out. That is usually midmorning SUnday or shortly before kickoff. 18 or more won't surprise me.

Missouri -3, -120 (Greek)
I was on the Tigers last week in their cover at Oklahoma and will ride them here in what I think is a great spot. That fourth quarter fumble on their own 20 that was returned for a TD killed the Tigers' chance to beat OU outright. OU was not 10 points better than the Tigers on that night. But that game showed me they could match points with the best team in the Big 12. Here we get the Tigers at home against a Texas Tech team that has played only one team so far, Oklahoma State, with any kind of offensive ability that can match points with them. And Tech lost that game when the OSU run game ripped them. Missouri will likewise run on Tech and control the ball with their spread offense and running game. I think Mizzou also has a decided advantage on D. This Texas Tech team looks a lot like Purdue did a few weeks ago. They have cruised through an early season schedule of cupcakes and bottom 50 teams. Now they get a top 20 team that can and will run on them. I also think there is line value here as I make this 6.5. And besides home field for Mizzou, we have a surface difference which could affect Tech's timing on their pass offense and which I haven't figured into my line.

While I think this is a great week to play dogs straight in the NFL, I also think it's a great week to play teasers with favorites. There are several favorites between 7 and 10. Tease those bad boys down across key numbers to 3 or less and I think you'll have some winners.

Your insight is not only sound, but much appreciated, my friend.

Bears-Eagles OVER 41
I'm not a trends guy usually, but the Bears are 20-7-1 over in the last 28 games and over in four straight this year. Philly, on the other hand, is under in 5 of its 6 games this year. So the Philly scoring problems keep this low. The Bears defense isn't the same without Brown, losing the yardage stats to five of their last 6 opponents. Griese seems to be finding his rhythmn and should have success against the Eagles banged up secondary.

Rutgers +3
I haven't bet Rutgers yet, but I will be at 3 or better. I'll watch the market on Thursday and buy them at 3 or higher as close to the peak of the market as I can. It's a classic Thursday nighter with the home dog battling a ranked favorite. A little value in this number as Rutgers had the ball bounce the wrong way for them in their two losses, while USF has seemingly had everything go right for them.

Good Teaser Candidates:
Dallas, New Orleans, Seattle, NY Giants

Jax (for those who like to have a teaser leg hanging on Monday and can tease to 10 or higher. I also like Jax straight up Monday night.)

Rutgers +3, -125
Rutgers-South Florida UNDER 52
South Florida has won its two biggest games (WVU,Aub) due to TOs. If Rutgers puts it on the ground, USF probably wins tonight too. Rutgers will likely try to play ball control with their run game. Last year's game was 22-20. Both teams' defenses are better IMO, while their offenses don't seem quite as productive (the high scores vs. cupcakes and the TO-induced scores notwithstanding).

thegreek
Washington -8.5
Washington has one of the top passing defenses in the league. With Rattay starting the Cardinal offense won’t be able to move the ball in the air.

Redskins win 21-12

New England -16.5
The Dolphins are a terrible football team and Tom Brady is on a mission.

Patriots win 42-10

NY Giants -9
The Giants will dominate the Dilfer led 49ers offense.

Giants win 30-6

Tennessee -1.5
The Titans have a great defense and the Texans offense is still banged up.

Titans win 17-7

Pittsburgh -3.5
The Steelers have the best defense in the league and they will frustrate Cutler. Fast Willie has a big game on the ground

Steelers win 20-3

Oakland -3
Culpepper finds Curry and Porter for a score and the Raiders defense finds their form from last year.

Raiders win 27-17


Cincinnati -6.5
The Bengals offense shows up this week.

Bengals win 37-20

Lions +2.5
With the Lions high powered offense coming off a bye they will be too much for the Bucs defense.

Lions 34-28

Bears +5.5
The Bears defense shows up and the offense has a great game in the air.

Bears win 30-13

St. Louis +9
The Rams have been bad but the Seahawks aren’t that good.

Seahawks win 20-17

New Orleans-9
I’ve gone with the Saints all year and I’m going with them again. Leftwich and the Falcons offense won’t be good enough to keep up with the Saints.

Saints win 37-17

Dallas -9
This game scares me a little. Since the Cowboys are at home I’m going with them. Romo and T.O. hook up for a couple scores and the Cowboys contain AP.

Cowboys win 27-10

Buffalo+3

The Bills shut down the Ravens pass game and Edwards hooks up with Evans late.

Bills win 13-6

Indianapolis-3
The Jaguars usually play the Colts tough but the Colts offense coming off a bye is just too good for the Jaguars defense.

Colts win 38-23

Friday night
Already on Conn ML.

Northwestern-Eastern Michigan OVER 58, -103 (MB)
Both offenses clicking right now and neither D will scare anybody. Perfect weather indoors at Ford field for the NW spread offense. I would never trust Northwestern laying doubles but I do think they are going to be around 40 points here. Their D will likely give up 20+ if not 30.

Saturday Bad Weather Unders
Last week I was 2-1 playing first half bad weather unders. And the one I lost (Kansas-Baylor) was ridiculous...that game was postponed and stopped a few times due to the weather. They should have just played the damn game in the tornado. That's how I handicapped it. Then, KU scores 14 points in the last 90 seconds to take it over. (Thanks to a ridiculous Baylor INT).

There's another storm sweeping through the plains tomorrow. I'm looking for bad weather unders for the first half. Looking for 20 mph wind, preferably where passing teams are involved, and some rain too. Natural surface a plus. There will be a few. I'll post them as I play them. I prefer first half unders as sometimes teams adjust to the weather. Check weather.com for the details

Nevada at Utah State, Under 33.5 (Logan, Utah)

Iowa +7 vs. Purdue
The Iowa offense didn't do much last week vs. Illinois, but the D showed that it can keep the team in the game. The Hawkeyes are getting a little healthier, but this one is about Ferentz vs. Tiller. It's one of the biggest mismatches in the Big Ten IMO. Ferentz owns Tiller (3 straight and 4/5). PU will be PU trying to run the ball and Purdue's passing game will likely struggle against the Iowa D and the 20 mph wins expected at mid-day in E. Lafayette. Tiller's team is doing its usual mid-season pratfall as the cupcakes of September are forgotten in the beatings of October. After last week's beating, the Purdue players now know they aren't going to a top tier bowl. Hard to see them being totally emotionally focused after their season has suddenly crumbled to mediocrity. Iowa, on the other hand, might be past its early season problems and starting to get better. Iowa's offense is not good, but Purdue's defense isn't either. Two teams going in opposite directions? A taste on the moneyline, as well, at +240.

South Carolina-Vanderbilt OVER 45.5
I think there is a little value here because both teams were a bit pedestrian on offense last week. Auburn's defense that stymied Vandy in the bog last week, though is (much) better than the Cocks' stop crew. The MLB injury doesn't help them either. Spurrier, on the other hand, might be capable of calling 45 points worth of plays for the O tomorrow. He gave away a cover last week with conservative play calling.

oww


last 1-3 (hey 1 better than 0-4 week 5)

ytd 10-15

miss st +22.5 v. WVA- this number is too high by me,wva is not that good and miss st is not that bad

va +4 @maryland- ill go with virginia here, heck I like them to win outright

boise st over 54- not worried by sunday game, another boise track meet

mich v. illinois over 49.5- this one looks to be a shootout, if not mich should spank the illini (if juice turns it over), mich should get to the over

It's the THIRD SATURDAY IN OCTOBER.

Does that mean anything to any of you? Tennessee vs. Alabama. The media may make more of other rivalries, but this one is right there for fan intensity.

Tennessee pick @ Bama
The Vols offense is cooking. Saban may build Bama, but he's still playing with Shula's recruits.

Michigan State +19 @ Ohio State
MSU Coach Dantonio used to work for Tressel. He probably knows what's coming. And this will be the first test for OSU of defending a quality power running team. That's a lot of points for a team that could win the rushing stats in this game. And besides, guys like Tressel usually don't put the pedal to metal to embarrass a coaching friend.

Central Michigan +17 @ Clemson
Call me crazy for taking a MAC team against a Clem that has blown out non BCS conference tams already this year. But CMU can put points on the board. This is a pure numbers play for me. My PRs say this number should be several points lower. I'll take the value as I find it.

Not finding optimal numbers today as other bettors are buying down the big dogs. If the right number shows up...

Buffalo +3 vs. Baltimore
Ravens obliterated by injuries. Dick Jauron vs. Brian Blowhole Billick. I'll hold my nose and take the Bills with the value.

Atlanta +8.5 @ New Orleans
Taking the points against a soft favorite. A one win team laying more than a TD? This is a line from last year's Saints. This year's team has done nothing to merit this kind of chalk. This isn't a bet on Atlanta as much as it's a bet against NO. Leftwich may be a statue, but I have to believe the Falcons will get a jolt merely because Joey isn't in there and...at least for one game.

Bears +6
Where are all the guys that predicted with such certainty that the Bears would win 11 games or more this season? Chicago was full of those guys before the season living off last year's glory. Those guys aren't even betting on them today, even as 6 point dogs to a team that has scored 16 or fewer points in 5 of the last 6 games. LIke the fans of many teams, Bears fans have the home fan disadvantage of overstating both the good and the bad. Nobody loves the Bears today. Their defense blows (27th in the league) and their offense is griesed for mediocrity. What I see is a Philly team that has struggled on offense, is susceptible to a pass rush and has a somewhat lame QB that always looks like he's one hit away from the infirmary and retirement. The Bears will hit him.

6-1/2 pt. 3 team Teaser: $5 to win $8 (Greek)
Washington -1.5
Dallas -2.5
NY Giants -2.5