College Football Picks Week 1

My first post on this board. A few games to consider. More to come as we get closer to game days.

Auburn -13-1/2 vs. Kansas State
You won't see me lay double digits very often (maybe 5 times all year over 150+ plays) but this looks like a good spot to me. I think KSU is a team in deep trouble and it's going to start showing right here in the first game. THey had a soft schedule last year and ended up making a bowl game, but then were whacked by Rutgers. That was pretty graphic evidence this defense can't stop a power running game. Since then, FIVE coaches left the team. Have you ever heard of five coaches leaving a coaching staff? Several players have left the team. Reports out of Kansas say that Coach Prince's camp resembles a prison camp, not a football team. Even assistant coaches had to run stairs with the team a week or so ago because the head coach was POd at the effort. What? Key players have left the team, perhaps most notably, their starting nose guard on a defense that was in the midst of making the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Prince was a weak pick for HC anyway and the inside scoop I've heard is that he was the only one who would take the meager money KSU was offering. This looks like a team that could implode this year. And it doesn't seem like a team that is going to have much success against an Auburn team that has a power running game, talent at the skill positions, and a smash mouth defense. There's a lot more in the individual matchups I could identify, but I don't want to belabor the point. I think Auburn rolls and KSU begins what I think is going to be a very, very bad and troubled season.

Illinois +5-1/2 vs. Missouri
SMU +10 vs. Texas Tech (bought a few weeks ago)

Very interesting analysis Coast. I was a little surprised Kansas State didn't go with somebody with actual head coaching experience. I think Jerry Kill of Southern Illinois or Dno Patterson of Western Illinois would have been far better coaching hires.

Troy +24 & over 44.5

Troy covered against FSU and Georgia Tech last year, and dismantled Rice in their bowl game. Most of their offensive weapons are back, and the spread offense should cause trouble for the Hogs, who lost good players on defense.

Nice to see you here, Chus.

Not sure how many people will go to the window and say "Louisiana Monroe" but I think it's justified here. They play the ESPN2 opener on Thursday night.

ULM +4 vs. Tulsa
A very veteran team with talent at the skill positions, playing at home on a very rare national TV gig, faces a Tulsa team with new players at key positions and a new coaching staff putting in a very different package on offense. You might think Tulsa would have generally better talent, and I suppose they might. But the edge isn't that great and the experience of ULM (17 returning starters vs. 10 for Tulsa) should be a big factor in game 1. Home mojo prevails.

I am looking at Monroe as well. Another Thursday game I like is MSU getting the points from LSU. Big home dogs in conference games on Thursday night always do well, and LSU has a new offense going into hostile territory in Starkville. LSU clearly is the superior team, but I think the Bulldogs will hang around on national TV, this is their bowl game. LSU may also be looking ahead to Va Tech the next week.

I will keep an eye on the number because it is up to 18-1/2 in some places. According to sportsinsights.com, 86% of the action is on LSU. The public likes to pound favorites late, so I am hoping for another point or two.

Wow! Chus. Didn't think I'd see you here. Happy to have you aboard!

BillsDuffMan says don't be a sucker for that Illinoi bet. BillsDuffMan understands that team has recruited better, but don't fall for this bet. Missouri wins by 9 with the help of Chase Daniel, the starting QB.

Coast2Coast, where do you get your lines from?

Florida State - 3 1/2 vs. Clemson
I think Clemson showed signs last season that this offense has a long way to go. They were dowright pitiful down the stretch. They can't get touchdowns in the red zone.

Dolphins, I monitor lines at three different places and buy at the best price. I use WSEX, Olympic (the greek) and Matchbook. I figure having three books and shopping for the best prices is worth a few games a season.

The Illinois and SMU games I posted elsewhere a few weeks ago and said at that time and place I thought those lines would move. I got those at WSEX. I do realize, those prices are now gone, though you can still find an SMU +10, -125 and an Illinois +5, -108 at Matchbook. ULM I bought yesterday at 4.5 at Matchbook (still 4.5 -120 there), but I do know it's now 3.5 at most other places. Auburn is still widely available at 13.5.

I said Kansas State might have some issues. They certainly do have some good stories. Kansas State running back Rashaad Norwood was recently charged with battery, criminal damage to property, criminal trespass and obstruction of the legal process. Just your typical transcript for a college football player. But the unnamed woman friend he assaulted deserves a prize for not only overcoming the battery, but responding with this gem:

“I never had any idea what love could be, and what it meant to Rashaad, until he threatened to burn down my house and kill me. Then, at last, I knew true love.”

You can't make this stuff up. When we consider the quote of the year, this one will be in the running.

Notre Dame - Georgia Tech UNDER 46 (WSEX) 1*
This one looks like it might begin drifting downward as the reality sinks in to bettors that this game matches up two teams with experienced defenses facing rookie QBs. Tech QB Bennett was pretty good vs. WVU in their bowl game last year, but this is his first true start and it's at ND. The first game jitters have to be high for both QBs. Neither coach will likely want to expose their QB to these aggressive defenses. I see this game being one where both teams look to establish running games and pass when there are opportunities...but one in which I expect the defenses to have the upper hand. This might be a good old fashioned battle of field position. First team to 20 wins.

Kent St. +4 @ Iowa State (Matchbook) 1*
My power ratings make Kent the favorite in this game and this screams value to me. Square bettors might look at this game and see the veteran ISU QB and the great WR Blythe and think ISU has the better talent. They do. At those two positions. Elsewhere across the board, this ISU team is not particularly strong. It's going to be a long season for them and their new coaching staff. KSU is a very veteran team who came on very strong last year. I played the Flashes a few times in key spots last year and the value leads me to play them again here.

Mississippi State +18

Georgia Tech/Notre Dame under 46
ND lost their big three on offense, and GT lost Johnson, so a lot of weapons from last year are gone. I see a lot of pounding the rock on both sides, as both teams will hope to minimize mistakes.

First middle opportunity of the year...

Tulsa -2.5, -115 (Greek)
I think Monroe is the right side in this game and the market is moving that way. But sometimes I have to put my beliefs aside and simply try to cash in on opportunity when it presents itself. I'm sitting on Monroe +4.5 and will balance that by the same win amount by buying a half point on Tulsa to -2.5, which gives me a two point middle across two key numbers (3 and 4). That's a pretty good situational middle. One thing I try to do is to anticipate line moves, buy the moving side early and then middle when it goes across 3 or 7, or in this case, two key numbers.

For those not familiar with a middling strategy, I am now on both sides of the game. If the game finishes with Tulsa winning by 3 or 4, I win both ways. If anything else happens, I win one bet, lose one bet and lose the juice on the losing bet. So if my bets were each $100, for example, I would be risking $10 (if Tulsa covers) or $15 (if Monroe covers) for a chance to win $200 (if both bets cover). That is a risk I will take when I am under 3 and over 4.

This line might get to 2.5 on its own on Thursday before gametime, but I will be unable to monitor lines all day and buy it on the dip. So because I will be out of pocket on Thursday, I'll buy the hook now.


Chus, I bought a piece of your MSU Bulldogs too for Thursday night. Nothing like having action on 3 of the 4 teams playing on TV on opening night.
Good luck all...

AH... the betting season is back upon us...Like always I will sit out the first week

I knew you'd find your way in here eventually Borsky.

Texas -39 & Texas -23 (1st half)

Like Coast, I don't like laying double digits, but Mack Brown likes to pound the Sun Belt teams in their openers. This one will get ugly right away, 63-7.

2-1 on opening night. One for Friday night..

Syracuse-Washington UNDER 44-1/2
Washington put up some points last year, but that was with their exciting QB and a veteran offense. This offense is very green and the young QB is making his first-ever start on the road. Cuse's offense was really bad last year and I don't see this one being all that much better. Both coaches know their defenses are way ahead of their offenses and this one smells like a battle of field position and offensive ineptitude to me. If we don't get too many turnovers leading to easy points or scores in the return game, this one should be fine.

I absolutely love that line for Texas. One of my favorites of the week

I picked this up somewhere else. Makes sense to me...

OVER/UNDERS IN 1Q, 1H, and FULL GAME
Last Year's Opening Week: If you throw out the garbage games with spreads of more than 24 points, last year's opening week totals for 1Q, 1H and game were 45-72 to the Under (results from others may vary, 1Q lines in particular can have some variation on totals if you shop around)

Last Night: 3-15 to the Under (as we throw out the Buffalo/Rutgers garbage game)

That's a mark of 48-87 in favor of Unders heading into Saturday's continuation of season openers. There's no guarantee this is going to continue. But, the slew of dead first quarters this past Thursday night at least makes it reasonable that it could continue. In fact, that's MORE extreme than last year. So, the evolution of the game could see more and more defenses getting aggressive (which is easy to teach quickly) with more offenses not ready to deal with it this early.

Something to think about as you handicap Friday and Saturday's slate. The sacks, dropped passes, and penalties are likely to continue, particularly with teams breaking in new QB's. The rules changes don't seem to be influencing anything yet (sloppiness is just happening starting at the 29 instead of the 24 or whatever, and the extra plays aren't yielding extra points yet). They might once offenses get sharper. For now, this is at least worth monitoring in my opinion. Any "weather" games would only exacerbate the problem.

Be careful with Overs unless you've got experienced offenses and passive defenses...be careful backing teams with inexperience at QB...look for spots to exploit...

picks for Saturday


Colorado (-2.5) v. Col St. - HC Hawkins kid to likely play for his dad. I look at Colorado to take it to CSU is this early grudge match. Neutral site Denver keeps the price down on the chalk, look for CU to keep CSU QB Sr. Hannie pressured and CU should cover the three. Stat noone cares about but me: redshirt freshman Cody Hawkins is 59-0 as a starting quarterback dating back to sixth grade. Dont go overboard on this one as last year the Buffaloes whizzed down their pants against montana state

OK State v. Georgia (over 56)- knowing full well the dangers of early overs, its hard not to go over on this. Georgia returns 1 yes one player on their defensive front 7. Oklahoma State doesnt like to tackle too much, and their air and ground offenses make me want to say what the hey and step up to the window on this one.

Central Mich +7.5 @ Kansas- Ill take Dan LeFevour to Brian Anderson against a D which was last vs the Pass in 06. Also KU has a freshman CB Harris who will get an initiation to NCAA football on this one. worth a look

Florida International +38


This is way too many points for a Joe Pa coached team to cover. They will sit on a lead and be content to run the clock out.

Saturday Night
Tennessee +7 @ Cal (Greek)
This line has climbed from the 4 opener to 7 as bettors apparently believe that Cal will get their revenge. The pinkie finger injury to Vols QB Ainge probably also helped to juice this line. Tenn has a veteran QB in Ainge who has played in much tougher places than the canyon in Berkeley. Yes the Vols have a new receiving corps. And yes, Cal has talent at RB and wideout. But Tenn is one of the top 4 SEC teams we're talking about here. You give me a top SEC team getting 7 vs. any Pac Ten team other than USC and I'll take the perntz. Tenn dominated in the trenches last year and their running game might be in control again here. I expect the Vols to outrush Cal and I love dogs who likely will win the rushing stats. I think 7 is too many for a game I expect to be very close. The situational factors may point to Cal, but the fundamental ones, and now the line value, favor the Vols.

1-3 Saturday; 3-4 YTD

FSU-Clemson Under 22-1/2, 1st half (WSEX)
Noles open on the road with a new offensive coaching staff, but the same QB who struggled so much last year. Will we find his aim right out of the box? Clem starts a new QB in his first start. Looks to me like both defenses should be better than the offenses early.

Florida State -3
Clemson always is strong in the first half of the year, but Free Shoes U. has better athletes. A new offensive coordinator at FSU should add a little spunk to what has been a dormant offense the past few years.