College Football Picks, Sept. 13-15

Last week: 3-1
YTD: 6-7

Alabama -3 vs. Arkansas
I've been waiting for this one and Bama has been too. They won and covered as road favorites this past Saturday at Vandy, even though some of the players had mentioned Arkansas publicly and seemingly were looking ahead. That was a danger sign to me, but they won anyway, which is a good sign for Saban that he kept his team's focus. I'm buying this early because I love the situation and I like the price. I make this line 6.5, so I see value in this number. I hate laying 3.5 in any football game and as other bettors absorb this situation, I expect this to be higher by game time. Hence, the early buy. Last year, Bama dominated this matchup at Arkansas, but lost due to fatal coaching blunders by Shula and a few missed kicks. I suspect the Tide have had this one circled for a year. Hogs are pretty one dimensional and it will be a showcase game for McFadden and his Heisman hopes on ESPN Saturday night. I think Saban has the horses and (unlike Shula) can probably game plan to stop that and not be embarrassed in his first SEC Conference home game in Tuscaloosa.

Temple +29.5
I can't believe I am putting my money on the Owls, but how can Connecticut lay more than four touchdowns to anyone ?

Thursday Night
Maryland +17, -120 vs. West Virginia
(Bought the hook; 16.5 widely available)
Last year in Morgantown, Maryland was outgained by WVU 383-373. Maryland actually out first-downed the 'Eers 24-17. WVU won that game by 21, but Mary was in for the cover til the very end as 17 pt. road dogs. WVU had a few big plays, but the largest factor in WVU winning was FIVE turnovers from Mary. You can't handicap turnovers and the TOs belie how close this game could have been. I remember betting Maryland in that game and feeling I had a "right side" loser. Two years ago, WVU won by 12 at Maryland with similar close stats. I'll take another bite of this apple, this time with the Terps having the Thursday night national TV home mojo with their Top 5 rival in town. WVU has an edge with their speed and running game, but I really don't think the talent difference is 17 points here. It hasn't been the last two years.

Maryland has been on my radar all week. My book has it at +16.5 (-105), so I am waiting.

Kentucky +7 vs. Louisville, -115 (bought hook @ WSEX)
This is one of my "value" plays this week, which have gone 2-0 so far this year (Kent and Bowling Green). I see value in this line. But I also like the fundamentals and the situation. Kentucky is better this year, particularly on offense, while I believe Louie's defense can be had by good offensive teams. Home dog in a rivalry game with value. I'm buying it now because this one is headed lower.

Nebraska +10 vs. USC, -108 (Matchbook)
This is the other value play this week. I make this line 3. It is moving down and is already at 9.5 most places and will likely be lower by Saturday. I thought maybe the USC money would drive this higher and was waiting to see if it might drift higher, but it's clear now the sharps are going to be on the dog here. Joe Sixpack likes USC but Joe won't be betting until Saturday...and he bets a lot less than the wise guys who are moving the line today. I want to lock in the value of the "10" before it drops everywhere and I lose the 10.

Just out of curiousity, Coast, since you've forgotten more about wagering than I'll ever know:

How often do you successfully middle the bet? Do you even try, or is it not worth losing the 10% if it falls on one side or the other? How big does the line shift have to be before you consider playing both sides during the week? I'll hang up and listen to your response.

I make maybe 10-15 middle bets on straight bets during a season. Maybe 3-5 of those win both ways. I don't make the decision to middle based solely on the juice. I calculate the juice as part of the total cost and value of the bet. If I can obtain a +EV (Expected Value) of any bet that meets my ROI standards, I will make it regardless of whether it is the first or second bet on a game. Here are the situations in which I hedge, with middling and scalps my two methods.

1) The first reason to hedge is if I no longer like my original bet. If I make a bet based on a certain set of expectations and those expectations change – like the QB or star running back being injured in practice – I may buy back the other side. For example, a guy might get injured in practice, dramatic weather might change an over-under bet’s EV, or something else might happen to change the expectations of a bet. Whether I middle in such a situation will depend on the EV of the 2nd bet. If I believe the risk/return ratio on the original bet has changed so much that the second bet now has a + EV, I will do it...even if it means taking on a reverse middle. Here is a hypothetical example of the worst kind: Let’s say I buy Indianapolis this week at -7 and Peyton Manning and Joseph Addai are injured in practice on Thursday and they are both ruled out for Sunday’s game. Let’s say my line on that game without those two guys is -2, but the line drops only to -4. What should I do? Buying Tennessee at +4 would set me up for a “reverse middle” where I could lose both ends if the game ends up on 5 or 6 and I would lose one side and push the other at 4 or 7. I think many people would just eat their initial losing bet. But not me. I have chalked that first bet up as a loser, but I now see a +EV opportunity with the new, 2nd bet. I would do the reverse middle because the expected value of buying Tenn at +4 – when I make the fair value +2 – would be about 5% (including the juice). That would be a good bet to make, even though I’m set up for a two-way loser possibility. The original bet of Indy -7 has suddenly become a –EV bet of about -7%. The second bet is a +EV of 5%. My total EV for the game is -2%, much better than just sitting on the first losing bet.
2) I will middle across one or two key numbers (3,4,6,7,10,13,14,17,20,21) if and only if the EV of the 2nd bet is zero or +EV. Let’s say I like Nebraska this week at +10 and I make the line +5. I bought Nebraska at +10. Will I middle it, even if the line goes down to 6.5 (which it won’t, but this is just for explanation purposes). No, because buying USC at -6.5 would set up a nice middle, but the 2nd bet would be a –EV bet because IMO the fair value is 5. If I made fair value 8 in that game, I would middle it when it fell to 7.
3) A scalp is when you are guaranteed a profit on both sides of a bet regardless of what happens in a game. If you have a lot of time on your hands, a few of the right books that offer + lines, can watch and monitor lines, you can set up a few scalps a week on straight bets. That’s almost a full time job though. Good situations don’t last long because others arbitrage away the gaps. Season bets are a great scalp opportunity. With the NBA season coming up, I will be looking for scalps on season bets. For example, I might buy a team over X wins at +110 and then might find them Under X wins at +140 just by anticipating the market, waiting for the market to move and shopping around. I have a few such bets on season wins in the NFL. No matter what happens, I’m going to win between 5% or 20% of the total I invested on those. That’s worth tying up that money for four months.
4) I think the best scalps are available in live betting. Sunday and Monday night games this week were classic scalp situations and I was there to profit. In live betting (I use Matchbook) the odds change after every play. I regularly buy the team that is behind the spread in a game immediately after the other team scores to go ahead of the spread. I start with the first bet on the dog. In the Sunday and both Monday games, I locked in significant profits by betting the team that was behind at +150,+180...even at odds that ranged up to +400. In the Sunday game, I bought the Cowboys at halftiume -6.5 at +118. When the Cowboys went ahead of the spread, I bought the Giants at +180. When the Giants then scored to go inside the spread, I bought more Cowboys at +170. Then the Cowboys scored and went ahead of the spread by 9 and I bought more Giants at +250.... and then more at +380 when the Giants were behind by 16. Remember when the Giants scored in the last four minutes to close the gap? At that moment, the Cowboys were +400 to cover. I bought more Cowboys at that moment. The Cowboys then scored and the odds flipped to Giants +600. I sized my bets to basically build equal profits on both sides regardless of what happened in the game. It was a beautiful thing. The same thing happened (not quite as good, but still profitable) in the two Monday night games. If anyone is interested in live betting, I can explain in more detail. First, go on Matchbook during a game and just watch the odds change during a game. Get the feel for how the prices move before and during a possession and after a score. Consider this day trading rather than investing. It is potentially much more profitable than straight betting if you know what you’re doing. It’s my favorite form of betting.

That's some great stuff, Coast. Thanks for the info; that's a lot to think about for the next few weekends.

TCU -7.5
TCU over 24.5
TCU/Air Force over 42

TCU has too much talent, and should blow Air Force away.

Maryland +17 (-120)

Too much value with a solid team playing at home against their rivals on national TV on Thursday night.




I will most likely have some more tomorrow, but sportsbook has -105 juice on Fridays, so I will wait.

BYU-Tulsa OVER 50 (WSEX)
Scoring is up in the first two weeks of the season with the new kickoff rules generating better initial field position. I also wonder if the better starting field position leads to coaches being a little more open with their play calling. Many coaches seem to be very conservative when they have the ball inside their 30, but open it up considerably as they get closer to midfield. These two teams open it up early and often and both average over 300 yards passing. Maybe a little value in this number based on BYU's being stopped by a very, very good UCLA defense last week.

last week 2-2

ytd 3-4

cuse-illinois - over 43- Illinois and Syracuse do not like to tackle. Look for Illinois to move the ball well and ditto for the orangemen.

Michigan -7.5 v. ND- ill take blue at home to right the ship against ND. I have little confidence in Claussen and Mich D will be resusitated against ND here.


pitt- msu - OVER 50.5- MSU has shown the ability to put some impressive scores up and Pitt had a tune up against grambling and has put up some relative.ly big numbers in terms of points

I've made Bama a 3 weight. The more I look at this matchup and read about how Saban has transformed the physiques, strength and speed of the Bama team, and remember how they pretty much controlled the LOS last year in this matchup, I like this even more. Time to step out and put a little extra on one.

Tennessee +7.5 @ Florida
0-2 betting on or against Tennessee. I've lost my touch with the Vols. Time to get it back. The history of this matchup is close games and this is the game that I believe the Gators will be exposed as being nowhere near the dominant team they were last year......particularly on defense and stopping the Vols run game. That week 1 loss to Cal might not be looking so bad by November. The Vols don't win in the Swamp very often, but this is as good of a shot as they've had in 10 years. This line reflects the week 1 Vols loss and the fact that the Gators are the defending champs. They haven't been tested yet. They will be here.

This will probably do it for me on Saturday unless line moves cause me to build a middle or present a new opportunity.

Miami Ohio-Cincinnati UNDER 48-1/2
In the three games these teams have played against board teams, they have been outgained in each. Neither offense has been very prolific except Miami's first half against Minnesota when the Gophers were pretty clueless. But Miami's best RB is banged up and they have QB issues, so I don't expect them to repeat that performance. Cincy won last week because Oregon State had SEVEN turnovers and the Bearcats were playing with a short field all night. Other than those drives, they ground their way to only a handful of first downs.