College & NFL Picks, Week 6

College: Last week 3-2; 15-19-2 YTD
NFL: Last Week 4-3; YTD: 30-14-1

Wisconsin +7 @ Penn State
This is a breaking news play. It looks like all hell might be breaking loose at Penn State. Apparently a bunch of players were involved in a fight on campus last Saturday night. And Joe Paterno himself is being alleged as being involved in a road rage incident in which he allegedly got out of a car and berated a young couple.
www.laschout.com

Has the old man finally lost his marbles? At any rate, no matter what happens at Penn State this week, it probably won't be good. They've already lost their best RB, Scott, to a suspension announced last Friday for assaulting his girlfriend. More suspensions look like they're coming. And Wisconsin comes to town pissed off after losing at Illinois. I think this one will be lower by Saturday, so I'm buying it now. I make the number 7, so it's a fair price. And if the number is still 7 on Saturday, I'll be perfectly content to sit on this as a situational play against a possibly imploding Nittany Lions team.

If I were a betting man, I'd put down money on that too Coast. Good call.

I don't know if it's a good bet. It's a good bet if it a) beats the closing line, and b)wins. The PSU website has confirmed that Joe Pa was involved in the alleged road rage incident. The story is hilarious now. Now we have anonymous sources confirming it happened but that Joe was "civil".

Laschout.com has learned further details regarding the alleged "road rage incident" involving Coach Paterno that took place on Friday afternoon on campus. According to sources, Coach Paterno was following a car that he thought was being driven erratically, and observed the driver of said car nearly cause an accident to take place. Paterno, upon witnessing the near accident, confronted the woman driving the car to make her aware that he witnessed the incident and that he was taking down her license plate number. The source claims the encounter between Paterno and the motorist was both brief and civil.

Joe cuts somebody off on the road, gets out of his car and the exchange with the other motorists was "brief and civil"?? Riiiiiiiiiiiiight. That's not quite even remotely approaching believability. I remember when I spent some time in Pa that the Joe Papologists would always run to his defense even without facts. Sounds like a little of that at work here. Privately, PSU fans will tell you he's an old coot who is losing it. Publicly, all they will say is that he may be a coot, but he's our coot and we won't let you sully his name in public. Privately, they sully it regularly.

They call the Joe Papologists the Paterno Mafia and Penn State football the Paterno Family Business. He's going to die in this job and his son will get handed the head coaching job. A lot of similar traits to another Italian Family, that's for sure. At least all Joe has is road rage. He may have road rash after PJ Hill runs through his defense...

Anybody have any thoughts on brilliant young coach Wanne making an appearance on national TV tonight?

None here. I certainly would not bet ON Wannie and Navy looks quite a bit weaker than previous years.

I did make my first NFL bet of the week just now though.

Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati
The NFL card looks much more normal this week. Last week was a tough one, with St. Louis the only obvious "contrarian" anti-public play with a home dog and strong public betting on the other side. This week, we have a few situations with line value and the public firmly on the other side. The first of these is KC. This one looks like it's almost to 2.5 so I'm buying it here. I'm no Herm Edwards fan, but this is simply a value play. One will not go broke betting against the Bungles as road chalk.

The other two that will definitely be on the list (just watching the juice to time my buys to the optimum price): NY Jets and Green Bay Packers. The Pack are not a dog, but they do have line value and public sentiment on the other side. Also this game has the classic situational spot of a home team bounce back off a loss against a traveling team feeling fat and happy off a big win.

Seattle-New Orleans UNDER 43, -107 (Matchbook)
I expect this to be lower by Monday night (already 42 several places) as the reality of this situation sets in. I went under with the Aints last week and will do so again here as I expect Seattle's offense to be out of sync. With Mack Strong out, the hole is going to close up faster for Shaun Alexander who is still playing with a cast on his hand. The backup RB Morris is coming off of a hip injury and won't be 100% either. The running game for the Hawks this year has been pathetic anyway, compared to the past two. However, Holmgren has inferred that he is going to focus more on the running game, which I assume is in response to Pittsburgh's complete control of the clock last Sunday.

Seattle's top 2 receivers (Branch and Hackett) are out. They have not had a game this year where their entire 6 man receiving core has been healthy. The Hawks are now starting Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor who have a combined 3 career receptions in the NFL. The Saints defense points allowed is terrible, but that is mainly due to turnovers. Their secondary blows chunks, but Carolina couldn't exploit it with David (Stalled) Carr and I don't think the Seahags will do it with the Ben and Courtney show either.

And what can you say about the Saints' offense? It's broken and with no Deuce, it's likely going to stay broken against a decent defense. Is this the week the Saints offense finally wakes up? I'll take that bet.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Seattle-New Orleans UNDER 43, -107 (Matchbook)
I expect this to be lower by Monday night (already 42 several places) as the reality of this situation sets in. I went under with the Aints last week and will do so again here as I expect Seattle's offense to be out of sync. With Mack Strong out, the hole is going to close up faster for Shaun Alexander who is still playing with a cast on his hand. The backup RB Morris is coming off of a hip injury and won't be 100% either. The running game for the Hawks this year has been pathetic anyway, compared to the past two. However, Holmgren has inferred that he is going to focus more on the running game, which I assume is in response to Pittsburgh's complete control of the clock last Sunday.

Seattle's top 2 receivers (Branch and Hackett) are out. They have not had a game this year where their entire 6 man receiving core has been healthy. The Hawks are now starting Ben Obomanu and Courtney Taylor who have a combined 3 career receptions in the NFL. The Saints defense points allowed is terrible, but that is mainly due to turnovers. Their secondary blows chunks, but Carolina couldn't exploit it with David (Stalled) Carr and I don't think the Seahags will do it with the Ben and Courtney show either.

And what can you say about the Saints' offense? It's broken and with no Deuce, it's likely going to stay broken against a decent defense. Is this the week the Saints offense finally wakes up? I'll take that bet.

Just a word of caution on that, Coast- Mack Strong really is quite bad. He missed more blocks than any non-O lineman in the NFL last year, and he has been a shall of his former self since 2005. Seattle did infinitely better on the ground last year in single-back sets than in two-back sets. Now, that doesn't mean that the ground game won't struggle, or that Alexander and Morris can't get the job done, but don't overvalue the loss of Strong. I don't think it's that big of a deal.

PS- that's not really in response to your bet, which I think is sound, but just the analysis in general.

The NFL lines this week are driving me batty. I'm not seeing a whole lot of value anywhere, to tell the truth.

Laying 3.5 or more in the NFL

My strategies in betting the NFL include: 1) Be very careful about laying 3.5 points or more, and 2) Be very careful about backing soft favorites (Teams that are not among the league's elite). Let's consider the data for this season so far and how these two strategies fit together. Most teams have enough trouble winning games, let alone extending and covering spreads of more than a field goal. They play to win the game and simply can't or don't know how to extend leads and cover spreads or more than one score.

A guy on another site cranked the numbers. If you look at all NFL favorites of 3.5 or more, you find a record of 22-28 ATS. Nothing remarkable there. But if you strip out the four best teams in the league according to the power ratings (New England, Indy, Pittsburgh and Dallas), the record drops to 8-24. If you then take out the next tier of teams in the power ratings (SD, Jax, Seattle, Tenn, GB and NYG) the record drops to 5-19 ATS.

This data is a small sample, but it does validate what we often see nearly every year in the NFL. The best teams can cover spreads of 3.5 or more. Most teams don't. So, roughly speaking, teams below the top four are only about 25% likely to cover as favorites of more than a FG this year, while teams below the top ten are only about 20% likely to cover.

Obviously, we're dealing with a lot of intermingling of cause and effect here. The best four teams are the best because they keep playing so impressively, and that suggests covering early season lines that underestimated them. Lesser teams are failing to reach expectations, which is why they rank lower in the power ratings. I expect the lines will catch up to these developments, so these ATS extremes won't be expected to continue to this degree.

To me, it suggests a few things in setting my own lines for games. Soft favorites probably ought to be knocked down a point when they're laying 3.5 or more. The inherent competitiveness of the league makes it difficult to win by 4-7points or more if you're not one of the handful of elite teams. In fact, the ability to cover high spreads confirms your eliteness. We can use it as a defining characteristic to separate the elite from everyone else. Thus, I won't lift SD or Jax until they start doing that. And I won't drop Pitt down unless they stop doing it.

I think teaser players should consider this data as well. If you're playing teasers because the market is cranking out "fair" lines, this study suggests that the lines really haven't been fair in these kinds of matchups thus far. They're more likely to become more fair as lines tighten up, but teasing favorites down isn't getting much value outside of the elite foursome. Teasing underdogs up looks to make more sense percentage-wise. And of course, when you can tease a dog up across the key numbers of 7 and 10, you are teasing yourself into a much stronger advantage.

Titans +3 over Buccs

This would be my lock of the week. Tennessee is definitely the better team, the Buccs are on their 3rd and 4th string QBs, and I think that D-Line of Tennessee owns the beat up line of the Buccs. VY can have as bad a game as he did last week with the same result

Titans 20-10.

New England -5 over Dallas

Dallas has been slightly overrated all year long, and New England finally has a "real" test, which they are most likely licking their chops for. The safeties wont be able to stay with Watson and Moss can be Newman, Henry, or any safety deep easily. I would expect 3 TDs by those two guys. TO will have a great game but it wont matter in the end.

Patriots 38-21.

Raiders +10 over San Diego

Denver sucks, just people are only now starting to realize it, they could easily be 0-5. This could definitely be a letdown game, and I see the Raiders either winning this game outright or staying within 3.

San Diego 20-17.

If any of you are wondering why the lines on several games move a few points every Thursday, it's very simple: The good doctor puts out his plays on Thursday. "Doctor Bob" has quite a following in tout world. He has been a documented 55% handicapper over the last 20 years and last year he nailed the colleges for better than 60%. When he releases his plays, his clients pound them and the books move lines on his reputation as much as on real money. Look at the 1-2.5 point line moves on the teams he released today: Houston, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Buffalo, Illinois, Air Force and "strong opinions" on San Jose St, Utah and UTEP.

Coast2Coast wrote:

If any of you are wondering why the lines on several games move a few points every Thursday, it's very simple: The good doctor puts out his plays on Thursday. "Doctor Bob" has quite a following in tout world. He has been a documented 55% handicapper over the last 20 years and last year he nailed the colleges for better than 60%. When he releases his plays, his clients pound them and the books move lines on his reputation as much as on real money. Look at the 1-2.5 point line moves on the teams he released today: Houston, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Buffalo, Illinois, Air Force and "strong opinions" on San Jose St, Utah and UTEP.

I'm sure someone has documented this, but... what's the record of the plays against Dr. Bob after the line moves, say, one point or more? In other words, if he's a 55% handicapper with the lines he's picking, he's certainly not a 55% handicapper on the lines after they've moved... so the reverse must be pretty decent, right? Of course, I'm not sure that data exists.

Irish Boy wrote:

Coast2Coast wrote:

If any of you are wondering why the lines on several games move a few points every Thursday, it's very simple: The good doctor puts out his plays on Thursday. "Doctor Bob" has quite a following in tout world. He has been a documented 55% handicapper over the last 20 years and last year he nailed the colleges for better than 60%. When he releases his plays, his clients pound them and the books move lines on his reputation as much as on real money. Look at the 1-2.5 point line moves on the teams he released today: Houston, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Buffalo, Illinois, Air Force and "strong opinions" on San Jose St, Utah and UTEP.

I'm sure someone has documented this, but... what's the record of the plays against Dr. Bob after the line moves, say, one point or more? In other words, if he's a 55% handicapper with the lines he's picking, he's certainly not a 55% handicapper on the lines after they've moved... so the reverse must be pretty decent, right? Of course, I'm not sure that data exists.

Never woulda thought about that Irish.

Excellent point, Great post!

Ooops wrong board

You definitely have sharp instincts, Irish. I know of several guys that have been fading Dr. Bob's line moves. They are doing very well this year, but I don't know the exact %. Beyond Dr. Bob, there are some guys who regularly fade every 2-3 point line move in football and basketball. I cannot document their records, but I suspect that they're doing fine also.

Is he any relation to Dr. Ken?

Square Plays of the Week

The public bettors are pounding Cincinnati, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Chicago, Tennessee, Arizona and New England this week. Each of these have over 70% of the bets. Line value is on the other side in most of those. The squares are remembering last week's games to guide them in betting the "better teams" this week. For those of us who pay no attention to which teams are the "better teams" or which teams looked good and bad last week, it's back to another normal week in the NFL.

Bad Mahi Mahi wrote:

Is he any relation to Dr. Ken?

No, but the lines definitely move when my picks are released.

Anybody else finding that KC +3 line VERY odd? So give me the Chiefs.

Also, the last two weeks I have held my nose and taken the Falcons as a dog. Each week has covered and both weeks should have been straight up wins. I say ride the dirty birds until the prove to be unworthy.

Does anyone know what the over/under went off at in last night's FSU/WF game?

The only one of those teams I like this week is Arizona, mostly because of the double-QB change, which I think puts the teams in different directions. Arizona covers last week if not for a last-second TD and 2-point conversion (I had Arizona at -1 at Pinnacle and St. Louis at +3.5 at Bodog, ) I wouldn't go anywhere near the NE/DAL game, not for over/unders, not for moneylines, and not against the spread.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati
The NFL card looks much more normal this week. Last week was a tough one, with St. Louis the only obvious "contrarian" anti-public play with a home dog and strong public betting on the other side. This week, we have a few situations with line value and the public firmly on the other side. The first of these is KC. This one looks like it's almost to 2.5 so I'm buying it here. I'm no Herm Edwards fan, but this is simply a value play. One will not go broke betting against the Bungles as road chalk.

Dunno about this one Coast. Huard is injured. The Bengals are coming off a bye and are bascially playing for their season. I've read that Lewis has been firing them up this week. I could see Cinci winning it.

Shut up Bengals fan.

Bad Mahi Mahi wrote:

Does anyone know what the over/under went off at in last night's FSU/WF game?

The closing line on the total was 44.5. It was a solid 1/2 point cover for the over.

Illinois-Iowa UNDER 23 1st half
I've been high on the Illini all year and have been on them the last two weeks. But the line value is now gone from the Illini in this spot. And besides, I hardly ever play road favorites. I faded Iowa last week, saying before the game that Iowa was really offensively challenged. That is still true this week. Injuries have decimated their offense. This game shapes up to me as a battle of two pretty good defenses. And while the Iowa offense has real issues, their defense will bring it. The question is, will the Illini offense bring it? I think there are a few reasons to believe they might struggle in this spot. They are on the road, in a madhouse environment of Kinnick, playing a good defense, and, perhaps most importantly, can't be expected to perform at the same high level as the last two weeks. Sportwriters and fans might call this a "flat" spot after two big wins. I don't know that I expect that. They certainly will be emotionally ready. It's just that college kids on teams like Illinois don't usually perform at the same high level three weeks in a row. I don't expect the Illini to get out of the box with a hot offense early in this situation. And I don't expect Iowa to have a whole heckuva lot of O either. With a game total of 44, there is much better value to play the under in the first half. This game could go to the wire, could be decided by a late score or even go to OT. SO I'll just play the first half limbo and avoid that possibility.

Missouri +12 @ Oklahoma
This is the two best teams in the Big 12. I don't think the difference between them is 12 points. Oklahoma is a very good D, but Missouri is the best O they will play all year. Daniel and his ability to throw and run is going to cause OU some issues they haven't faced all year. In fact, the last time OU saw an offense with this kind of capability was Boise last year. And we know what happened there.