College & NFL Picks, Week 6

New Mexico State - Louisiana Tech UNDER 50
This is the lowest total in the Hal Mumme era at New Mexico State and for good reason. Chase Holbrook is out of this game and in steps true freshman JJ McDermott who is clearly not ready for prime time. He only passed for 57 yards in 3+ quarters against Boise State last Sunday after Holbrook was injured. The Aggies are really beat up on offense and in the games in which Holbrook has left early due to injury, they have been pitiful offensively.

La Tech is no great shakes offensively either. They have lost four straight games and have not scored a touchdown since the third quarter of a 42-12 loss to Cal on Sept. 15. The Bulldog passing attack ranks #113 in the nation and backup quarterback Mike Mosley will get more time and might even start in tomorrow's game. The Bulldogs are ranked #109 in the nation in total offense and did not even break 300 yards in total offense against Central Arkansas.

Both of these teams have decent defenses statistically with the Aggies ranked #54 and the Bulldogs ranked #69, which is kind of surprising with games against Hawaii and California.

NMS has run the ball more this season, perhaps out of necessity with the recurring injuries to Holbrook. Coach Mumme said this week he would run the ball more with the freshman in at quarterback. He saw last Sunday that the kid is nowhere near ready to move a team through the air. These two teams normally could be expected to light up the scoreboard with a lot of passes. Not this week.

last week 0-4 god help me, they took my thumbs Charlie


YTD 9-12


LSU -9.5 @ KY- well they squeaked it out last week (and didnt even come close to the cover), so why quit them (that was sarcasm). Ill take the LSU D again to put a shutdown on the spunky KY offense (KY turned the ball over like a flapjack v. South Carolina, so why not LSU to get some of that fumble action)


Boston College -14 @ ND- I know this is alot to lay on a so called old rivalry game, but I am enamored with BC. This is a national TV opportunity to lay a beat down and kick a intensive care patient that lay in a medically induced coma, Eagles put a hurt on ND who have repeatedly shown an inability to do much of anything against the class of the NCAA, BC is that kind of class

TN -7 @ Miss st- yea three road chalk plays, I know it is pretty dumb, but I like TN here, they are resurgent after their shellacking of a good GA team that has a young D which finally showed that they were a young D.

Louisville- Con over 67- this has all the markings of a track meet, jeez Louisville has a piss poor D they shut down an off NC state team and yes murray state. this looks like a race to 40+

Baylor-Kansas UNDER 30-1/2 1st half (Greek)
Heavy thunderstorms and high winds (~20 mph) in Lawrence. My angle on this first half play is that teams often come out sluggish in heavy storms but may adjust for the second half. This number also seems to provide better value than the dropping game total of 57.5.

http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/weather/hrbyhr/66045?eventid=217102&epc=bz

32-33-4 season
9-7 last week (did not post all plays on this board; I'll try to be more diligent about that)

Hawaii/San Jose State under 69 (bodog) SJS games rarely reach the over.

Illinois -3.5 vs. Iowa (5Dimes) This line settled back down after getting as high as five (it still is some places.) I'll jump on it now that it has lowered once again.

Wisconsin +7 vs. Penn State There's some weird stuff going on at Penn State. Also, I'm looking for Wisconsin to rebound.

Arizona -4 vs. Carolina I'm not a big believer in the David Carr era. I don't know what to think about the Kurt Warner era just yet, but it could potentially be quite good. At home, this seems like a weak line, but the betting public isn't rushing the number, so mabybe they'e just wary after Arizona failed to cover against St. Louis. They shouldn't be.

Kentucky +10 vs. LSU I don't think I'm ready to give any college football team -10 on the road against a top 20 team, especially after the last couple of weeks. Kentucky can at least keep this one close, and LSU may be in for a bit of a letdown after the emotional win vs. Florida.

St. Louis +10 vs. Baltimore (5dimes) Who the hell is Baltimore to spot 10 points to anyone in the NFL? St. Louis's offense is better under a healthy Ferrotte than an injured Bulger.

Oakland +10.5 vs. San Diego (5dimes) Too many points.

Cincy/KC OVER 42 (bodog) Larry Johnson is only about 3 weeks away from blowing out both knees, but Cincinatti is starting the Asian kid from Little Giants at linebacker. You figure that Johnson picks up some points on the ground this week (he's on pace to get less that 1,000 yards this year- scary.) Meanwhile, Cincy is off the bye and a tumultuous loss vs. NE, and you figure they'll come out blazing. I actually like KC here, especially if this line moves to 3.5, but the over seems safe and I'd like to lock it in at 42 (several books have it listed at 42.5.) I'll probably be taking the KC over once team props come out later this week, assuming their over is 17.5 or so, which I expect it will be.

KC +3 vs. Cincinatti If LJ doesn't run crazy against a team with no linebackers and Bryan Robinson, I don't know that he gets to 1000 yards this season. Waiting for Cincinatti to start winning again is like waiting for Godot. I had hoped that some book would raise this to 3.5, but that's not going to happen, and I'm going to hop on this while I still have the opportunity.

Atlanta + 3.5 vs. NYG I don't see this one moving to four, so I'll get it now (I may be wrong- wouldn't be the first time.) I almost always play home dogs on MNF, and a line of 3.5 is too good to pass up. I still don't believe in the New York Football Giants.

Purdue + 6 vs. Michigan (bodog) Michigan has struggled with every spread offense they have faced this year, including Appalachian State, Northwestern, and Eastern Michigan. Purdue is light years better than any of those three schools, and I think that Purdue's loss to OSU more a reflection of OSU's dominance than Purdue's nimcompoopery. I'm looking forward to playing Purdue on the moneyline as well, as I think they pull this one out at the big house, but I take the points here.

Missouri +12.5 vs. Oklahoma (CRIS) Missouri winning at Oklahoma is going to be the story of the college football universe next week. I do not believe in the Sooners, and that Missouri team is scary impressive.

Cincinatti -10 vs. Louisville A lot of points, and Louisville can put up garbage points should it get out of hand, but I trust that Cincy will ice this one early. That Louisville defense is just atrocious, and the offense hasn't really looked right either. Here's a fun fact- Cincy is the only undefeated team in college football ATS. Play it again, Sam!

NY Jets +3.5 vs. Philadelphia, +103 (Matchbook)
This one has just the combination I like: Line value (I make this line pick) and strong public backing of the road favorite (77% on Philly). Westbrook looks like he'll be back for Philly, which explains some of this line move. But as usual, I'll take value as I find it and fade an overpriced road favorite laying the dreaded 3.5.

USC-Arizona UNDER 28-1/2, -105 1st half (Greek)
Another bad weather first half under. It's been raining since last night in LA and the natural turf at the Coliseum could become a mud bowl rather quickly. USC might have a little bit of a hangover from last week's loss, plus coming out and having to play in one of the first rains in LA in months and starting a new QB will probably beget a conservative game plan. Zona likes to play a little wide open but hard to see them doing that in a steady rain on a muddy track.

Cincinnati -3

The Bengals are 29th in the league against the run which means LJ will probably have a good game. Kansas City also has a top 10 defense. That still won’t help them because they are horrible offensively. With the Bengals 4th ranked offense coming off a bye they will be too much for the Chiefs.

Bengals win 37-16

New Orleans +6.5

I keep picking the Saints because I keep thinking it’s impossible for their offense to get that bad overnight. They keep proving me wrong. I’m to go with them one more time. With Alexander looking like he has lost a couple steps and the Seahawks offense also missing Branch I think the Saints defense will shut down the Seahawks offense and the real Saints offense will finally show up.

Saints win 30-20

Miami +4 (my son made this pick)

Derek Anderson has been pretty good since becoming the starter. This week he has to play without Jamal Lewis and that’s going to hurt. Cleveland has the worst defense and they are giving up over 30 points a game. Ronnie Brown will have a big game on the ground and Cleo Lemon with do just enough to keep them in the game. It won’t be enough to help them win though.

Cleveland win 23-20

New England -5.5

Tom Brady is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time and Tony Romo is still wet behind the ears. The Bills defense gave Romo problems and the Patriots will give him even more. Look for Romo to be on his back all game and throw at least 2 interceptions. Tom Brady and the Patriot offense will continue to put a lot of points on the board.

Patriots win 38-17

Arizona -4.5

The Carolina offense will be playing with a rookie quarterback or an old guy that was just signed off the street and Steve Smith isn’t 100%. Warner and the Cardinals offense will be too much for them.

Cardinals win 27-10


Houston +6.5

The Texans are missing some key pieces on offense but I’m not sold on Garard and the Jaguars offense. The opportunistic Texans defense will make a few plays to keep Houston and the game and Owen Daniels and Matt Schaub will pull it out in the end.

Texans win 17-13

NY Jets +3.5

Pennington and the Jet offense have a lot to prove and they will get it done against the Eagles. Look for Thomas Jones to go for over 100 yards on the ground and for Pennington to throw for a couple scores.

Jets win 24-23

Minnesota +5

This game will come down to which defense makes the most plays. The Vikings Adrian Peterson will go for over 100 yards on the ground but the Bears defense will force Travaris Jackson into a couple turnovers. Brian Griese won’t be much better but the savy veteran will do just enough to help the Bears pull this one out. There will be a Cedric Benson sighting too.

Bears win 14-10

Atlanta +3.5
Joey Harrington and the Falcons offense will have a big game in the air. The Falcons defense will shut down the Giants run game and force the Giants to pass. Look for DeAngelo Hall to contain Plaxico Burress.

Falcons win 20-17

Titans +3

With the Bucs losing another running back it’s going to make them one demissional and that’s going to playing into the hands of a tough Titans defense. Garcia isn’t good enough to carry the offense by himself.

Titans win 21-13

Green Bay -3

The Redskins have a couple WR’s that are banged up. Moss is battling a groin injury and Randle El is has a hamstring injury. Both are likely to play but it is impossible for speedy receivers to be at the top of their game with these types of injuries. Clinton Portis hasn’t shown in a while that he can carry the load either. Farve will put off the interception record for another week.

Packers win 27-17

Packers -3, +105
Atlanta +3.5, +107

Line value and, in the case of Packers, a nice situational spot, and in the case of Atlanta, the home dog with value getting the hook. Will probably also play Dallas. We'll see if it might just get to 6 or more on Sunday.

NSJ wrote:

Coast2Coast wrote:

Kansas City +3 vs. Cincinnati

Dunno about this one Coast. Huard is injured. The Bengals are coming off a bye and are bascially playing for their season. I've read that Lewis has been firing them up this week. I could see Cinci winning it.

Sorry you feel that way. This is my largest bet of the week. One of us will be happy. And if Cincy wins by 1 or 2, we will both be happy.

Tampa Bay -124 moneyline vs. Tennessee (Matchbook)
97% of moneyline bets in this game are on Tennessee. Titans backers are flooding the window today. The squares are lining up to bet what they think is the "better team". They're lining up with Vince Young and his ATS trends and stats for a possible public bettor slaughter of epic proportions. I especially love the logic that I have seen from dozens of Tennessee bettors that Tampa Bay has running back injuries. That's part of the NFL. So did St. Louis last week. How did that work out for St. Louis bettors? Injuries to key players are the most over-valued betting factor by many bettors. Those injuries were factored into the line when it was set last Sunday. As a result of this incredible public love for an underdog, the moneyline on the Bucs (at Matchbook) has dropped to the level of a 1 or 1.5 point favorite. In the immortal words of a former radio associate of mine, "That's news you can use fellas". Remember this: square bettors usually love favorites. WHen they line up like this on an underdog, it's usually not good. Tennessee may win the game and prove to be the right side, but at -124, Tampa Bay on the ML is a very good bet.

I did just the opposite. I took Tampa -3 (+105), and Tennessee ML (+120). As long as Tampa doesn't win by 1 or 2, I make money on this game.

I'm going to be live betting the Bears game today. I love Minnesota, but didn't like the dead numbers of 4.5 or 5. If I can get Minny + odds in live betting, I'll be betting them.

Dallas +5.5
Dallas-New England under 52.5

Public love for NE has pushed the price too high. Public also expecting a shootout. It could be one, but this number is too high and I'll take the advantage as I find it.

I see a lot of stuff in this business that makes me scratch my head. Don't anybody take what I'm about to say personally. I'm not thinking of anybody in particular when I say this:

Most people who invest in stocks, bonds, real estate, art, or other investments have some kind of understanding of the market in which they are investing. Yet, time after time, I see people choose to ignore the sports gambling market when they make sports bets. Could you imagine buying a house, rental property, corporate common stock or treasury bill and not understanding the fair market price for that investment? Yet people do it all the time with sports bets.

Anybody who makes any investment without paying attention to the market is either incredibly gifted or a loser.

The most difficult aspect of finding value, at least for me, is devising a reliable set of power rankings that don't over-exaggerate the difference between, say, the 10th and 23rd best team in the league. I'm pretty good at finding weak lines that are going to move, but I don't really have an objective and reliable measure of team strength.

I understand that, Irish. At least you recognize the deficiency and I'm sure that over time, you will find some methods and sources that are pretty reliable to help you with your pricing. That's part of the challenge, finding a method that works for you. But even a somewhat inexact and rudimentary line-making system/pricing model is usually better than none at all.

What is more puzzling to me is the people who wait until game day to bet and then buy a team after the line has moved 1 or even 2 points during the week. I see line moves every weekend of 1-3 points and there are people that are paying those higher prices. Could you imagine shopping for a house, but waiting until after the price goes up 10% to put in an offer to buy it? If you were ready to make your offer, but saw that the price had increased by 10%, would you automatically pay the higher price? Most people would not. They would make an offer at a lower price or walk away. That's not what many sports investors do. They pay the higher prices. Buying investments after the price has increased significanly usually is not a good strategy, unless you know for certain the fair market price is lower. That little edge you are giving away in each investment transaction adds up. I recognize that some people can only bet on game day. But if I were in that situation, I would not buy any team that was selling for a higher price than the market price that was established earlier in the week, unless something significant changed to justify the higher price.

Well, it just happened again. Over the last ten years or so of me betting offshore, I have had a few books cut me back or cut me off. One book cut me back to a $50 limit on college basketball totals, another cut me back to a $100 limit on all college hoops plays, and another cut me off from taking any college football or basketball totals. Today, WSEX informed me they will no longer accept any live betting action from me. For the last month or so, every time I tried to make a live bet, their system would not accept my bet...saying the system was "paused". A few times, I sent them emails telling them about their system being "broken". I found out today it's not broken...they just won't take any of my action. I hit them pretty hard over the summer with some live baseball bets. I think my very, very large live bet on Tiger Woods to win the PGA it was hurt me. You might recall that after the first round, WOods was several shots back. I bet him (i forget the odds, but they were good) very heavily to win. The next day (Friday), Woods shot a record 63 to take control of the tournament. WSEX announced the next week they were no longer taking live golf bets during tournaments before Saturday afternoon. I guess I hit them too hard and as a result, they cut me off and changed their rules. I suspect I wasn't the only one who hit them hard on Tiger that day as their odds were pretty attractive. If you're in this biz long enough and successful, you will find that this is the one business where companies will cut you off and tell you "thank you but we no longer want your business." C'est la vie. Sayonara WSEX. By the way, they did transfer my money right away to another book. So at least they didn't stiff me.

Falcons line is going higher. Already 6 at one place. 4.5 several places. At the lower price, I think I'll just get me some more of that. I'll wait and see how high it climbs. If you like the Giants, I hope you already bought them....

New England -14, -110 at Miami

TheGreek opened the Pats game for next week at -14 -110. Needless to say I locked it in. Some books already have this game at -17, and at the rate this is going it might be -64 points at -220. If it goes to -17.5 with a solid vig I'll be a happy man.

Oakland -3 +110 vs. KC

This line is going to drop before gameday, but I'll trade the points for the better payout. A little bit too much love for KC after the Cincy win, especially on the road, and a little bit too much hate for Oakland after they were gashed by LT.

Tampa +125 vs. Detroit (Matchbook). This opened at -2 and is down to -1.5 or -1 at a lot of books. I think it'll hold at -1 when it get's there, but that's all moot anyway. TB is, by far, the better team here. Football Outsiders have TB ranked 5th in DVOA (defense value-over-adjustment), which means that, roughly, TB's individual plays are the 5th most successful in the league. Detroit is ranked 24th. The difference in the level of success of these two teams, to date, is enough that I'm willing to take TB on the road against a Detroit team off the bye. I think that +125 is the best moneyline I can hope to lock in at this point.

Should any NFL team ever have a +1300 value attached to a moneyline? Regardless of teams, isn't there so much parity in the NFL that +1300 (or more) is ALWAYS a good bet? Only the most lobsided bets in college football have crazy moneylines like this, and there's way more parity in college football. Do the 2007 Patriots break all the gambling rules, or is this just a conseqence of too much hype? Is Miami +1300 a worthwhile value. I'm also wondering whether this will decrease in the coming days as people realize how ridiculous that moneyline is. Of course, Chambers was traded today, so maybe it'll grow.

Chus, Coast, or any other bettors more experienced than me: 13-1 odds on any NFL team seems too good to pass up (I'm still waiting to see if it moves, though.) Is this an accurate assessment?

You don't have anything better to do with that money than pray for a huge upset?

13-1 is indeed a very high ML for the NFL and yes, I would say that's a good price. And yes, it appears the Patriots are breaking all the rules. As part of a balanced portfolio with different levels of risk/reward, a little bit on a long shot can be justified.

Bad Mahi Mahi wrote:

You don't have anything better to do with that money than pray for a huge upset?

Half a unit? No, not really, especially considering that it only takes one or two flukish things to happen to turn a football game, and it is in Miami, and the Dolphins always seem to play the Pats tough. Look, I'm not expecting to win (obviously, it's +1300), but I just don't see how any NFL team can get those odds against any other NFL team, especially on the road. Brady could get the flu. Zack Thomas could send hookers to the Patriots hotel the night before. The Patriots might sleepwalk their way through practice. Who the hell knows?