College & NFL Picks, Week 10

College: Last week: 1-3-1; YTD: 26-33-3
NFL: Last week: 3-3; YTD: 41-29-2

Tuesday Night College Football
Central & Western Michigans UNDER 67
Football on TV every night this week. We'll start with a bad weather under. A little snow, rain and most importantly, 20+ mph winds today and expected tonight in Kalamazoo. Passing should be tough and if we can avoid a bunch of turnovers, under is worth a shot even though both defenses are weak. http://www.weather.com/weather/local/USMI0442?from=search_city

My largest college bet of the year so far is coming this Saturday:

Cincinnati -5 vs. Connecticut
Certain kinds of situations repeat themselves in college football. One of them is looking at when a team might suddenly go flat. I think we have one this week. U Conn is coming off three consecutive big efforts at home, winning outright as dogs v. Louisville, So. Florida and Rutgers. I was on the Huskies as home dogs in the first two games, but I think their good fortune runs out here. I could see a very flat effort on the road here. It isn't that they aren't "motivated" to win, it's just that kids can only give so much. College kids simply cannot and do not give peak effort against tough opponents four weeks in a row. Cincy is a solid ball club on both sides of the ball and their defense is capable of putting the clamps on the Conn running game. UConn has three impressive wins in the last three weeks, but it's something of a mirage. They have had every possible break go their way. They were outgained in each of the last four games (the three at home and a loss at Virginia). Cincinnati had its slump a few weeks ago when it lost two in a row, but then righted the ship last week with a nice win at South Florida. I think we have two teams here with entirely different levels of gas in the tank.

I knew I hit Cincy hard at a couple of places but a 1 point line move in 1 hour? I must not be alone in liking the Bearcats. Somebody else must have hit them pretty hard. I'm guessing at least 100k has come in on Cincy in the last hour to move the number 1 point. Cincy now -6. Early birds get the worm...

Buffalo -3, +108 at MIA (MB)

I posted in last week's section about how I felt that Minnesota might be consistently +EV for the rest of the season, due to the size of the market and lack of angles. I feel the same thing about Buffalo, only more so. The line looks OK to me, but I'm only going to get one chance to play this at this price, and that's early.

Cleveland +430 at Pittsburgh (MB)

I'm not 100% convinced that this is the best price I'm going to get on this game, but is there a better than 20% chance that Cleveland is going to win this game? You bet your ass! The line opened at +10, but with a bad price, so I'm waiting to see if either the price settles or the line drops. There's still plenty of value at 9.5, IMO.

I agree with you about Buffalo generally, but I don't think this is the spot to back them. Buffalo may be playing above their Power Rating the last few weeks, but they beat Baltimore, Cincy and the Jets. The Jets are in the bottom 5, the Bungles are in the bottom 10 and the Ravens are only 1/2 point above the bottom 10. Yes, Miami is in the bottom five too, but I need to see Buffalo beat somebody above the bottom ten before I'm ready to back them as a road favorite. And besides, this may be the best spot to back Miami all year. First, I think there is value with the Fins here as all three of my PR systems make the number at least 2 points lower. And there also is a strong situational angle backing Miami here. Backing winless teams off a bye, especially as home dogs, is a very strong subset. I don't have the numbers handy, but I'll find them. I know it's an angle I've played in the past. I will most certainly be on Miami. I hope you're right that the price goes up and I get a 3.5 sometime before Sunday. One of us will be happy on Sunday.

Coast2Coast wrote:

I agree with you about Buffalo generally, but I don't think this is the spot to back them. Buffalo may be playing above their Power Rating the last few weeks, but they beat Baltimore, Cincy and the Jets. The Jets are in the bottom 5, the Bungles are in the bottom 10 and the Ravens are only 1/2 point above the bottom 10. Yes, Miami is in the bottom five too, but I need to see Buffalo beat somebody above the bottom ten before I'm ready to back them as a road favorite. And besides, this may be the best spot to back Miami all year. First, I think there is value with the Fins here as all three of my PR systems make the number at least 2 points lower. And there also is a strong situational angle backing Miami here. Backing winless teams off a bye, especially as home dogs, is a very strong subset. I don't have the numbers handy, but I'll find them. I know it's an angle I've played in the past. I will most certainly be on Miami. I hope you're right that the price goes up and I get a 3.5 sometime before Sunday. One of us will be happy on Sunday.

You might be right, and in retrospect that buy is looking kinda square. I might buy out of it before it's all said and done; let's see what the line does. More than anything else, I was flabbergasted by the +108, not the -3. If nothing else, maybe the rest of us squares may jump on that as well and buy down the Fins at -3 to a reasonable middling price.

Just one opinion. Don't overreact to it. While I may not agree, I value how you think through these things. Also, there are far worse plays one could make than laying a field goal to one of the worst two teams in the league. And I also like how you're seeing the value of taking plus odds. Nothing wrong with that either. Those timely buys of plus odds are what make scalps possible.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Just one opinion. Don't overreact to it. While I may not agree, I value how you think through these things. Also, there are far worse plays one could make than laying a field goal to one of the worst two teams in the league.

No, it wasn't just your opinion. It was a few hours of thinking about it. I'm not completely regretting it- FO has Buffalo as 16th in the league and Miami at 28th- but I am regretting it a bit nonetheless. I'm mostly just curious how the market is going to react; almost all my plays Tuesday-Thursday are purely market plays. But I might have fallen into a trap. I'll watch the numbers and make my decision. I can buy out of it now at Bodog with guaranteed value, something like .04 units, but I'm not that desparate.

Other potential plays this week are Arizona, Minnesota, and Oakland. No purchases yet as I have a feeling that each are going to get cheaper as the week goes on.

It looks like Carolina is going to have to start Matt Moore at QB this weekend. Hard to see a doctor letting David Carr play in this game just one week after he was concussed. If Moore starts, you have to think Carolina is not going to expose him at all or risk him losing the game by throwing the ball. They are going to likely play a ball control game. Grabbing 4 with Moore at QB for Carolina seems like a solid play as this one could be a battle of field goals. When Moore is confirmed, I expect both the side and the total to degrade in value. You might like the side or the total better than the other, but together, this seems like a pretty strongly correlated parlay. I'm buying it now before the line degrades.
Parlay: Atlanta+4/Atlanta-Carolina UNDER 36

Patriots undefeated regular season -150 NO (3 Units)

Like most props, I think that the line is naturally skewed towards the event happening, rather than it not happening. Plus, my numbers give the Patriots a slightly less than 25% chance of going undefeated. In other words, I'd have marginal value all the way up to -300; to get this price at less is tremendous.

Now, one half of my brain is saying "hold off on this; the Patriots face Buffalo, then Philadelphia, then Baltimore; none of those three teams will cause much trouble. Imagine the price of No after week 13!" And that may be true, but these calculations only work in the aggregate; just because there's only an 8% chance they'll lose at Buffalo doesn't mean that it can't happen, and flukes do happen all the time. Furthermore, I'm thinking that after the win at Indy, this price is as good as it's going to get; as the next two weeks go by (the Pats are on bye), this will get bet down as the game recedes into memory. Plus, betting now and betting later aren't mutually exlusive events; I can always re-up after the Baltimore game (I think the Steelers match up against the Pats even better than the Colts). We'll see.

Ohio -3 at Akron

I hate taking road dogs on weeknights. However, looking at this one I really like the matchups. Both teams will be fatigued playing their 3rd game in 12 days. So I look to who is more likely to wear down today. Akron has been hurt throughout the defense. At the same time Ohio features a pounding running game with a 1200 yard rusher.

On the other side of the ball Akron is having lots of trouble at the QB position. Two sophmores have been flip flopping as starters all year. I like to take my chances that an inexperienced QB playing on a short week will not produce. Also Ohio has been gelling on D as of late after starting the year with an ineperienced group of LB.

Ohio is rolling, having won the first two games of this 12 day march, while Akron has lost 2 in the same time frame. I think momentum carries, especially during these short weeks.

I look for Ohio to pull away big by the middle of the third quarter.

Tennessee -4.5, +109 vs. Jacksonville (MB)

There's a lot of uncertainty about this one, mostly because it is still unclear which QB will be suiting up for the Jags. Doesn't matter. You're either going to have a gimpy Garrard or an awful Gray up against THE elite defensive unit in the NFL this season. Lost in the hussle and bustle of Indy/New England is the fact that the Tennessee defense is performing at an unbelievable level this season. The Jacksonville defense is still reasonably stout, but without the ability to move the ball, Tennessee should have good field position all day.

West Virginia -16.5 (MB)
Yup. Laying a bushelful of points. This one looks to be a blowout. Louisville might score 3 times, but the more relevant question is will WVU punt as many as 3 times all night? Louie's defense has been shredded by worse offenses than WVU's. Speed kills. 47-21.

BYU -7, -103
I think I'm now officially a square today. Laying wood in both games. I make this number 12, so I need to take value as I find it. Tough spot for TCU, going from their New Mexico game to facing BYU's passing game. Prep not nearly so tough for BYU, who faced a similar running attack last week vs. Colo State. Utah showed us several weeks ago that this is not the same TCU defense this year. BYU reminds us of that tonight.

Dallas -1 at NYG

Dallas is the best team in the NFC, period, end of story. The advanced statistics bear that out. My theme this week is "who are we forgetting?" I think Dallas is one of those teams; if Indy and NE were out of the picture, the #1 topic of conversation would be Dallas's dominance, closely followed by how good the Tennessee defense has been. As it stands now, the Indy/NE dominance is like a fire, absorbing all the rest of the NFL oxygen. As a result, I think that a couple of favorites are being underhyped.

I lock in at -1 here because the line has moved as far as -2.5 at some places, and while there's not a whole lot of value between those numbers, points are points, and I take what I can get. Dallas dominated the first matchup, and the Giants lost the only two matchups this year against legitimate contenders (Dallas and NYG) by a combined score of 80-48. In the meantime, they've defeated patsies to get to 6-2: A flukish win at Washington, Philadelphia sans left tackle, the Jets, Atlanta, San Francisco, and Miami (Jesus christ, do the Giants play the Temple Owls this year too?) The Cowboys have mostly stomped inferior competition, except for the Buffalo game (mulligan) and Minnesota (who they beat by ten, and who might be a lot better than their record indicates), plus the loss to NE. The only thing that worries me is that the money is coming in 4-1 on Dallas, but if I were a betting man (hahaha, small joke) I'd wager that all the books flinch and this ends up at 2.5, maybe even 3 before it's all said and done. Hop on this pick before the weekend rush.

Stanford/Washington State UNDER 51

Line seems OK, but strong gusts and inclement weather expected in the Northwest (what else is new) may drive this one a couple of points lower by gametime. Both teams rely on the pass, especially Stanford, so if the weather gets especially bad, this one may grind to a halt. I don't think either team has the firepower to overmatch the opposing defense, even in the best conditions. Not my strongest play, and PAC-10 football isn't really my bag, but a clear positive value nonetheless.

Both my chalk plays last night were back doored. Anybody got some vaseline?

Mississippi State +5 vs. Bama
Good situational spot here. MSU needs one win for bowl eligible and has the positive momentum from the Kentucky win and has had an extra week to prepare. Bama coming off a crushing last minute loss to LSU and a hangover could be expected. Bama also has Auburn up next, and you know what that means.

last 2-5-1


YTD 16-25-1 (wow does that suck)

ND +3.5 v. Air Force- Ill try to get right with the Irish here, AF is not a good team and again its the salvage some self respect time for the Irish at home.

New Mexico - Col State OVER 50.5- write of the lobo gettin ewavxed by TCu and no prob by the numbers here

Illinois +15.5 @ Ohio State- Illini will lose this, but they wont get blown out of the water...too much for illini

Kent- Niu OVER 48.5 NIU gave up 70 and 44 in last 2 and Kents D is no Shield either should be easy to get this one

Coast2Coast wrote:

My largest college bet of the year so far is coming this Saturday:

Cincinnati -5 vs. Connecticut
Certain kinds of situations repeat themselves in college football. One of them is looking at when a team might suddenly go flat. I think we have one this week. U Conn is coming off three consecutive big efforts at home, winning outright as dogs v. Louisville, So. Florida and Rutgers. I was on the Huskies as home dogs in the first two games, but I think their good fortune runs out here. I could see a very flat effort on the road here. It isn't that they aren't "motivated" to win, it's just that kids can only give so much. College kids simply cannot and do not give peak effort against tough opponents four weeks in a row. Cincy is a solid ball club on both sides of the ball and their defense is capable of putting the clamps on the Conn running game. UConn has three impressive wins in the last three weeks, but it's something of a mirage. They have had every possible break go their way. They were outgained in each of the last four games (the three at home and a loss at Virginia). Cincinnati had its slump a few weeks ago when it lost two in a row, but then righted the ship last week with a nice win at South Florida. I think we have two teams here with entirely different levels of gas in the tank.

Good call- nailed the pick, even giving points on the road.

thanks...but it was a home favorite....game was at cincinnati. If I ever make a HUGE play on a road favorite, you will know for certain I've lost my marbles.

Sunday NFL

Arizona, pick -117; -1, -119 LARGE
I love how so many bettors see the Lions win last week in a romp at home and think this is the Lions team they are going to get on the road tomorrow. I look at how the Lions played at Philly and at Washington and think THAT is the Lions team we will see tomorrow against an Arizona team that has beaten better teams than this. Detroit is a 6-2 team headed for 8-8.

Miami +3 v. Buffalo
St. Louis +11 @ New Oreans
Winless teams coming off a bye are 16-2 ATS, speaking to the special kind of effort that winless teams have been giving in recent years coming off a bye in which they've had to live with media and fans all trashing them. Rams are as healthy as they've been all year. And Buffalo has beaten some bad teams at home. Can they beat a bad one on the road?

Atlanta +4 @ Carolina
Who in the hell is Matt Moore and why is he starting at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers?

My NFL day to be:

Ten -4.5, +109
Buf -3 +105
Dal -1, -110
Atl +4.5, -115
Cleveland +430
CLE/PIT Over 47.5
Cle +10, -104
ARI pk, -110

Adding:
NY Giants +1.5 v. Dallas
Washington -3, +110

Great call on St. Louis Coast.

Irish Boy wrote:

My NFL day to be:

Ten -4.5, +109
Buf -3 +105
Dal -1, -110
Atl +4.5, -115
Cleveland +430
CLE/PIT Over 47.5
Cle +10, -104
ARI pk, -110

Not too bad; 5-2-1, and I came damn close to hitting the big payoff on the Cleveland/Pittsburgh game.