College & NFL Picks, Week 9

College: Last week: 2-1; YTD: 25-30-2
NFL: Last week: 1-4; YTD: 38-26-2

2nd losing week of the season in the NFL as the home dogs all wimpered instead of barked. Saturdays used to be more profitable than Sundays. How times have changed. Just not a lot of value last Saturday.

This week's game of the year: Pats -5 @ Colts; Total 56
Who do you love?

-5 Pats?! C'mon Coast. You gotta put a hundy down on Indy!

I'll be on Indy with the points and on the moneyline to win outright. I expect to get 6 by Sunday.

It's already 6 1/2, -115 at bodog. It was 6, -110 last night. I'm waiting for the vig to come down, and it will.

This thing is going to get bet up into the sillysphere by Sunday. I'm actually really happy that the Patriots demolished the Redskins on national TV and the Colts just went about their business where no one was watching them. I'm expecting a very good EV by this weekend.

This is really hard to not want to start up that sports betting account.

Arizona State +7 @ Oregon
This is Saturday's biggest game. The unbeaten Sun Devils have found some defensive rhythmn and even a running game to go with their nice passing game. This could be ASU's dream season. Oregon is a good team..maybe even a great team. They were impressive beating USC last week, but ASU's dismantling of Cal was even more impressive. The winner of this one not only has the inside track to the Pac Ten title, but also is in line to step into a national championship game when the teams ahead of them in the rankings lose. And in a big game, I want a big game coach. While Mike Belotti is a very successful coach, he's no Dennis Erickson. Dennis Erickson is the only one in this matchup that has won a national championship (two of them actually) and a Pac Ten title. You can argue about Erickson's record as a disciplinarian and his lack of loyalty in leaving teams for more cash, but as a winner in college he's been solid. He also has a special spot in my heart. He was the coach of Oregon State when I made the largest single bet I've ever made...the Fiesta Bowl vs. Notre Dame after the 2001 season. (OSU won 41-9 as 2 pt. favorites). That game might have been the most humiliating night ever for Notre Dame football...well until this year, anyway. Now, they are getting humiliated almost every week. And this weekend, they could be humiliated even more so again, losing for the first time in 39 years to Navy. But that's another story and another pick......

I ordered (on Coast's recommendations) Stanford Wongs "Sharp Sports Betting" and King Yao's "Weighing the Odds" about a month ago off half.com. Tremendously interesting reads, with some good stuff for newbies and more seasoned bettors. I feel a lot more confident watching lines throughout the week. Thanks for the tip, Coast!

Glad you find them useful. You will find yourself going back and re-reading certain chapters and checking the tables from time to time. Nothing like a discussion of the Poisson distribution to spice up your cocktail party conversations.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Arizona State +7 @ Oregon
This is Saturday's biggest game. The unbeaten Sun Devils have found some defensive rhythmn and even a running game to go with their nice passing game. This could be ASU's dream season. Oregon is a good team..maybe even a great team. They were impressive beating USC last week, but ASU's dismantling of Cal was even more impressive. The winner of this one not only has the inside track to the Pac Ten title, but also is in line to step into a national championship game when the teams ahead of them in the rankings lose. And in a big game, I want a big game coach. While Mike Belotti is a very successful coach, he's no Dennis Erickson. Dennis Erickson is the only one in this matchup that has won a national championship (two of them actually) and a Pac Ten title. You can argue about Erickson's record as a disciplinarian and his lack of loyalty in leaving teams for more cash, but as a winner in college he's been solid. He also has a special spot in my heart. He was the coach of Oregon State when I made the largest single bet I've ever made...the Fiesta Bowl vs. Notre Dame after the 2001 season. (OSU won 41-9 as 2 pt. favorites). That game might have been the most humiliating night ever for Notre Dame football...well until this year, anyway. Now, they are getting humiliated almost every week. And this weekend, they could be humiliated even more so again, losing for the first time in 39 years to Navy. But that's another story and another pick......

That Oregon State/ND game was my second largest bet ever. My largest ever was the Ravens -3 over the Giants in the Super Bowl.

Jax +3.5, -106 @ NO (MB)

I hesitated at first to pick this up, thinking that after a couple of wins, including a big win on the road at SF, public sentiment might be a little bullish on NO, and so either the vig might move or I could pick it up at four later in the week. However, money has been coming in about even, and I'm busy this week and don't have time to be line-watching as fervently as I might otherwise, so I'm taking it here. 3.5 is the magic number, and Jacksonville defeated better competition in TB last week. Furthermore, with the exception of Seattle (which is an enigma), New Orleans new little renaissance has been against weak competition. I still think the offense has major problems, especially when up against a team with a shitdown (edit: Freudian slip? shutdown) corner for Colston and a decent D-line. Whether Jacksonville can move the ball is another matter, but they can certainly run on the NO defense. A word of caution: I've had bad luck (1-3) betting on NO games this year, so I could be wrong again. But I feel pretty good about this one.

I agree with you. The reason this line is what it is of course is because of Gray at QB. He has zero ability to make plays in the passing game. Remember Henry Burris with the Bears? Chad Hutchinson? Moses Moreno? Gray is worse.They were damn lucky to beat TB. They ran almost every play at one point, TB knew it was coming, and they couldn't stop them. I'm not sure the Saints can stop the Jax run game either. Jax looked horrible against Indy. Let's not forget...that was Indy. A lot of teams look horrible against them.

Here are two college games that might be worth a look this weekend, but are dependent on QB injuries:

Georgia -16 vs. Troy
Looks like the Troy State QB isn’t playing and the difference between he and the backup is huge. Besides, beating Georgia in this spot wouldn’t mean squat for Troy. They are going to need to win the Sun Belt to get a Bowl game, so the conference games in the next few weeks are much more important to them than this one. Normally I wouldn’t go against a team like Georgia coming off a huge win, but I will here because I think they are finding their late season mojo and simply will whack Troy, who might not be very competitive without their QB. We even get some value here, amazingly. Troy was getting 21 and 24 when they played Florida and Arkansas and now they’re only grabbing 16.5 from a Georgia team that just beat Florida and is playing much better than Arkansas has at any time this year.

Eastern Michigan +8 @ TOledo
These schools are pretty close to each other and have something of a rivalry and this is a lot of points for this rivalry. This line is inflated based on Toledo’s waxing of Northern Illinois last week. But I can’t take that one game and suddenly upgrade Toledo's PR way above where they’ve been all season. EMU has played pretty well the last few weeks and seems to be playing at a higher level. Their defense did pretty well against a pretty good Northwestern offense, then they shut down Western Michigan last week. A month ago, they were reasonably competitive vs. Michigan. The qb Schmitt is a top tier Mac QB and the backup McMahon, is serviceable, but not in the same class. McMahon played vs. NW and in the 2nd half last week. This play is a go if Schmitt is confirmed to play. This line should be between pick and 3, but is likely inflated due to Toledo's impressive win last week. Both these teams have losing records, but EMU has played a much tougher schedule. I’ll take the value and, last week’s Toledo game not withstanding, the better team.

what do you think about the over/under of 56 points for the Colts/Pats game? That really seems very high based on these teams being high scoring.......but they haven't been playing against strong defensive units like what each of these teams brings to the table. This one seems like an under bet for sure.

One more for Saturday:
Michigan State +4 vs. Michigan
Only thing that concerns me is mental state of MSU after the Iowa loss. But this is D'antonio coaching MSU, not the hapless Bobby Williams or the even more hapless John L. Smith. I think MSU wins this outright.

"Hapless"? Try pants-on-head retarded.

Kansas City -2 vs. Green Bay (bodog)

I don't know that I'm a believer in Kansas City despite the 4-3 start, but the guys at Football Outsiders are telling me that KC has the 8th best defense in the NFL, and not in the usual "yards per game" way either. Most buildings buy you an extra three points, but I think the true advantage of Arrowhead might be a little bit more than that. Green Bay is playing their second straight game on the road, and while they won last week at a traditionally tough building, I don't think they do so here again. And despite that, I was still on the edge of whether to play this game or not until The Greek moved their line to 2.5 from 2, despite the money coming in 3-1 the other way. I really don't care all that much whether I lock in the game at 2 or 2.5 (although I'll go ahead and take it at 2, of course), but I do care that I'm betting the same way as the books.

Damn man. Your NFL card is starting to look like that of some other people I know. I'm actually already on both sides of that game. (I make several arbitrage plays each week that I don't necessarily post). I found a Green Bay +3 at Greek on Tuesday morning and got a KC moneyline to go with it. I don't have a net position on either side of the game yet...other than the possible middle. I think you have the right side to bet. I hope it's the winning side. I make the number KC -2, but of course, the Brett Favre bettors will be out in full force by Sunday. I actually would not be surprised to see this one move toward pick when Joe Public bets it on Sunday.

Detroit -3, +111 vs. Denver (MB)

I'm still waiting for the impendning Detroit meltdown, and a world in which the Lions are 6-2 doesn't seem like a world I want to live in (that's not entirely true; I love watching videos of the run-'n-shoot + Barry Sanders days of my youth). On the other hand, Denver has underperformed as well. Although they played a decent game against GB and they did beat Pittsburgh, but they were also throttled by SD and have been horrible ATS. The line seems right here, but the price seems wrong, so I'll take a flyer.

last 2-3


YTD 14- 20


ship taking on water


SC -ARK OVER 50 , SC has put up the numbers versus the defenses that allow them to get into their game plan, look for Ark to allow them to get into their plan in spades, ark O is hot putting up 44 and 58 respectively in their last 2. Typical Spurrier SC team, good athletes but too stupid to play effective defense. over kids


KSU -15.5 at Iowa State- KSu has shown the ability to run the score up on anyone at anytime, they will contiunue the trend here and run the cyclone out of their home turf


ND -3 v. Navy- Sorry Navy, I would have advocated you guys to hang in there and then you showed your true colors versus Delaware. I gotta take ND to bring a modicum of self respect 2 weeks to prepare, ND wins it and covers da 3

Bama +7 v LSU- Ill take bama at home and the TD. LSU should win but they seem to be a team that expects good things to happen to them and does not go out and take it (showing how I was on them 2 weeks in a row and they lost and failed to cover those 2)

BC -6.5 v FSU- BC to keep the ship running versus a FSU team that has not really shown too much (losses to miami, wake and clemson). The O line will give Ryan time and he will slice and dice the seminole up, seminole offense not too darned impressive

Illinois -12 v. Minn- This is a game I feel the Illini will paste this Minn team that has nothing left in the tank. Illini run through them on the fast turf in the HHH thunderdome, two men enter....one team gets shellacked Ill ini

ASu ORE over 61// ASU +7.5 - I also like ASU in this contest and the 7.5 now dont worry about Eugene crowd, ASU in a daytona 500 (maybe the pac 10 scoring fest that failed to happen last week will show up (USC-ORE anyone)

good luck all

Still waiting to confirm QB status for Troy and Eastern Michigan. In the meantime, I bet more Michigan State.

Very rare that I take a couple of double digit favorites on Saturday, but here are a couple where injuries mean a lot more than just a few points to the line....

Georgia -15.5 vs. Troy
This is not 100% confirmed, but all signs are pointing to the Troy QB Haugebook, not playing. He has a bad hammy and his coach is saying how important the next two games are on their schedule. He is their offense. His backup is two freshmen...and the coach says he probably will play both of them. Troy is an exciting team on O, but not without the guy that makes them go both running and passing. This is one case where one player makes a huge difference in the line and the outcome. If Haugebook ends up playing, this is an ok bet. If he does not play, this is a great bet.

Ohio State -15.5 vs. Wisconsin
I don't know how Wis will score in this game. PJ Hill is a game time decision--deep bruise on his shin right where he broke his leg and has a metal plate--plus he has an achilles problem. Lance Smith (probably a better back anyway) his back-up, won't make the trip as he is suspended from playing in road games this year. Therefore it will be hard for Wis to run the ball against a staunch OSU defense, and if they have to throw, as their only source of offense, problems will arise. This one could get real ugly.

As long as you are laying big chalk today Coast, take a look at that Oklahoma-TAM game. TAM is one dimensional offensively and I see a guy like Stoops being able to scheme to shut down such a team. Oklahoma, as Kansas did last week, should be able to move the ball at will. TAM is an incredibly soft 6-3 and I would consider playing against them the rest of the season.

Thanks for that. Good thoughts. You're right that TAM could be a good go-against as it looks like Coach Fran is on his way out the door. (That didn't last long, did it?).

Screw OSU. I take the Wisconsin under at 14 1/2, and Ohio State waits until Wisconsin rings up 17 points to decide that they want to get serious. I OSU

My Sunday card:
Green Bay +3, -120
Kansas City pick -133

Indianapolis +6
Indianapolis ML +210
Philadelphia +3-1/2, -113

Minnesota +7.5 vs. San Diego (Bodog)

Too many points for a home team whose strength matches up nicely with San Diego's stength for me to pass up.