College & NFL PIcks, Week 8

Week 7
College: Last week: 4-8; YTD: 23-29-2
NFL: Last week: 5-3: YTD: 37-22-2

I had ten losses last week. Six of them were totals (0-6 on totals). If we don't learn from history, we're doomed to repeat it. I'm done with totals for awhile.

Minnesota +1.5 vs. Philadelphia (Greek)
I'm not sure why the Greek is selling Minnesota cheaper than other books (pick at most books), but I'll take it. Wrong team favored by my numbers. I'll be surprised if Philly is favored by Sunday.

Coast2Coast wrote:

Week 7 (pending Monday night)
College: Last week: 4-8; YTD: 23-29-2
NFL: Last week: 5-2: YTD: 37-21-2

I had ten losses last week. Six of them were totals (0-6 on totals). If we don't learn from history, we're doomed to repeat it. I'm done with totals for awhile.

Minnesota +1.5 vs. Philadelphia (Greek)
I'm not sure why the Greek is selling Minnesota cheaper than other books (pick at most books), but I'll take it. Wrong team favored by my numbers. I'll be surprised if Philly is favored by Sunday.

I'm happy you jumped on that, because it makes my purchase of two units (something I almost never do) seem a bit more rational.

NFL Week 8

A look at this week’s lines and my power ratings/line value for each game.

Cleveland -3 @ St. Louis: Number is a fair one based on recent performances, but will the Rams continue to play at a level that makes them the worst team in the league? Cleveland will surely get some backing from those who believe the Rams are terrible and aren’t worth backing in any spot. The odds of a team not winning a game all year may actually be higher than a team going undefeated. Rams or nothing for me.

Bears -4.5 vs. Detroit: Last week, da Bears were undervalued and won. The Lions were overvalued and won, though they badly lost the stats. I think the value is again with the Bears, though I can’t lay more than 3 points with a .500 kind of team. If by some crazy love for the Lions, this line falls to -3, I’ll be on the Bears again. I don’t expect that to happen, though.

Indy -7.5 @ Carolina: Fair number and a horrible spot for Indy in a sandwich between the Monday nighter and the Pats. I can find much better games than taking on Manning and the Colts again. Plenty of reasons for me to pass this game, though many sharps will be playing against Indy with the sandwich angle.

Giants -9 vs. Miami: Fair number for a neutral field. Question here is what kind of game these teams will play in London. I’d side with the underdog generally in these kinds of games that could be largely devoid of the usual emotional factors you get in an NFL stadium. But I see no compelling angle or reason to back Miama.

Tennessee -7.5 vs. Oakland: I use three different ratings sytems and in my three systems, Tennessee is the one team with the widest disparity. My three systems make this line 6.5, 7 and 10. If Vince Young starts, I'd expect some public action on the Titans by game time. But even if the line goes up and creates value for the Raidahs, I will not back a Daunte Culpepper-led team under any circumstance. All he and teams he leads do are underperform and lose. When Culpepper starts, his teams are now 3-19 against the spread. That's the worst ATS performance of any NFL QB in many years. Doesn't matter what team he plays for. The results are the same. Even with value, I wouldn't play them with him at QB.

Philly -1 @ Minnesota: Already played the Vikings. Wrong team favored by my numbers. Eagles might have a huge hangover after the late loss to Bears. Tavaris Jackson has a broken finger on his throwing hand. That's not worth the 3-4 points in value that I think I get here.

Pittsburgh -3.5 @ Cincinnati: A little value to the Bengals, which isn’t surprising considering the long history of public love for the Stillers. However, the Stillers have been no bargain on the road. The public might expect a Stillers bounceback, but bouncebacks usually occur more often at home than on the road in an inter-division matchup. Bengals or pass for me. If the public lines up behind Pittsburgh and pushes this line higher, it will make my decision easier.

NY Jets -3 vs. Buffalo: One point of value for Buffalo. Bills have more going for them than the Jets do, but not enough value for me to play a bad team on the road at +3. Pass.

San Diego - ? vs. Houston: Line not set here because we don’t know where the game will be played. Looks likely now that the game will be in Arizona. If so, 6 is the fair number. Line should be 9 if the game is in San Diego. Tough week for the Chargers with their city on fire. Tough week for the Texans with a hangover very possible. If there is value in the line, I’ll consider the points in what could be a close game with two emotionally fragile teams.

Tampa Bay -3.5 vs. Jacksonville. This line should be pick em had Garrard been playing for Jax. So is Garrard’s loss worth 3.5 points? No player in the NFL is worth that (Brady and Manning might be worth 3 max). Good spot for the Bucs at home though coming off a loss against Jax off the Monday night debacle and suddenly without an offense.

New Orleans -3 @ San Francisco. The Saints are again over-valued by my numbers, which is based on how they have played this year. This line reflects a public perception that the Saints are better than they have played, that the Saints might be getting it together and that the Niners with Dilfer are a bad football team. That all may be true, but is all that worth three points to the line? I think this line should be pick. The value resides with the ugly dog Niners.

New England -16 vs. Washington. The important questions for bettors are what is a fair power rating for New England and will the Pats be in look-ahead mode? Based on how these teams have performed this year, I make this line -21. For the first time in many years, I can make a value case for a 16 point favorite.

Denver -3 vs. Green Bay. Maybe 1 point of value for the Packers, but if the Broncos play like they did vs. Pittsburgh, then the Broncos’ current rating is too low. Lean Denver.

Possible line value plays:
Cincinnati
Minnesota
San Francisco
New England

A bit of a correction on the info on Daunte Culpepper: I had read that ATS stat and repeated it without doing my own math. On further review, it didn't seem quite right. It is not. Culpepper is on a 3-16 ATS regular season run, but if you include the two Minny playoff games in 2004, his overall ATS record since midseason 2004 is 4-17. Overall, his career ATS record for his teams when he has started is 38-53.

Indy -6.5, -106 @ Carolina

Coast mentioned this game at the line of -7.5 and called it fair. I'd agree with that, but getting that number on the other side of the 7 is vital for me. The public is lining up to bet this one on the Indy side, because of the soft line and the "trap game" theory. And I'm taking it anyway.

Trap games simply don't exist, in terms of wins and losses (ATS may be a different matter, though I doubt it, but I don't have the data to back me up on that. But I'll get to that in a second). Teams with +.500 records facing teams with -.500 records actually have a better winning percentage when that game is nestled between two games against teams with +.500 winning records than when they are not.

Meanwhile, even with all the "no one is noticing Indy" talk- which, of course, renders the discussion moot, since in order to talk about how no one is talking about Indy, you are talking about Indy- what everyone is missing is that what indy has done thus far this year has been equally impressive as what NE has done, and against stronger competition. Not to mention that Carolina, especially the Carr/Testaverde-led Carolina team, is much weaker than the Redskins. So why is one line -17 and the other line -6.5? True, Indy hasn't been running up scores like NE, but a TD, even on the road, shouldn't be too big of a deal.

Boston College +3.5 @ Virginia Tech (MB)
I know it is extremely dicey to go against Virginia Tech at home on Thursday night. I usually don't do that. In fact, I'm not sure I've ever gone against VT at home on a weeknight game. If I did, I surely was getting a bushelful of points. But this is not a typical situation we have here.

Here is a writeup I picked up from a pro that really says it all much better than I could about this VT team.

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This setting is a classic, isn’t it? An upstart gets moved to a rare level in the national polls, goes out on the road against a difficult opponent, and gets upset. This just happened to South Florida at Rutgers, right? But you would have already noticed that our intro is a bit out of kilter here – if Boston College suffers its first defeat in this game it will not be an upset, the Eagles are sitting at +3.5 in key precincts right now, with even a few +4’s out and about. And therein lies what makes this an even more unique setting.

Yes, Boston College does not deserve to be #2 yet, not based on the schedule that the Eagles have faced. But in an ironic twist they have become under-rated instead of over-rated. There is so much speculation about where they really belong that the markets can not wait to get involved against them, as evidence by the early movement on this game. But keep in mind one of the most important axioms in handicapping any sport - The fact that a team has played a weak schedule does not mean that they are weaker than they appear to be; it merely means that more evidence is needed before the cement is allowed to dry on a high rating. And in terms of the pressure for this setting, let’s consider the following – there may not be a more mature QB in the nation than senior Matt Ryan, who will not be intimidated (he has fully earned his “Matty Ice” nickname, with a 21-4 record in career starts), and correspondingly sets the tone for the rest of the team, and that in the last four seasons the Eagles have been underdogs 11 times, winning nine of the games outright.

The real story here is the flip side of the equation, however, as we really do have an over-rated team involved in this game – the favored Hokies. They are laying this price despite being an abysmal 112th in the nation in total offense, and when we break the numbers down that rating is very real. Both North Carolina and East Carolina had their best defensive game of the season in terms of points allowed, 1st downs allowed and yards allowed against Tech. Clemson had its #1 game in 1st downs and #2 in yardage. L.S.U. posted #2 in 1st downs and #2 in yardage. Duke posted #3 in 1st downs and #3 in yardage. Get the picture? Even William & Mary held the Hokies to 12 first downs and 287 yards.

Yes, the Tech defense can still make plays. But we will not see that unit at its best in this one, with NFL-bound LB Vince Hall not available, and Cam Martin, another starting LB, not likely to be ready as he battles mononucleosis. Right now they are practicing with Chad Grimm, a former walk-on, in Martin’s position. As for the offense, they may be back to Sean Glennon as the starting QB, with Tyrod Taylor not practicing yet since suffering a sprained ankle vs. Duke, and the running game has been a disaster for the second straight season, with Brandon Ore managing only 3.0 yards per attempt. This team does not deserve to be favored at all here, much less by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for.
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Beamer confirmed today that VT QB Taylor will not play tonight. The starter will be last year's starter Glennon. It's raining in Blacksburg, which IMO is a benefit to BC's passing game and may be a negative to the running games, which will affect VT more. A late field goal may decide this one, and the precious hook may be valuable tonight.....though I really think BC wins this outright.

That last two minute comeback for BC was fun. So was the post-game victory celebration with my BC grad wife.

When the game ended and they showed that shot of the VT fans sitting in amazement at their team's sudden loss, she laughed "The Hillbillies are stunned".

Friday night:
Fresno +3, -111; +3.5 vs. Boise, -120 (MB)
Coast taking another home dog. Who woulda thunk it? Bought some at 3 and then more at 3.5 In this case, it's more than the home dog angle. There is significant value here by my numbers. I think Fresno ought to be favored in this game by AT LEAST 3 points. This number is set based on the public perception of Boise. They have been over-rated in the line all year in large measure because of their win over Okla. last year. But this isn't the same Boise team. The problem is, I have found little reason to back their cupcake opponents so far this year, even with value. Fresno coach Pat Hill has kept his team's "stuff" together this year and will have his boys ready at home to redeem themselves for their last couple of years' miseries vs. Boise. Fresno outright tonight. The moneyline seems like it reflects that fact as it is under 140...a bit on the light side for a 3 point dog, reflecting ML $$ on the Bulldogs. At +3, -111, the points are a better buy IMO.

Saturday
Connecticut +4.5 vs. South Florida (MB)
Another home dog. Damn I'm predictable. This one fits my type of play in a few respects. USF had their unbeaten season ruined last week by Rutgers. College teams that experience such sudden changes in their promising seasons often have hangovers the following week. That might be especially true this week with USF basically losing their chance at the national title and now going on the road. It's hard to see USF being in tip-top emotions for this one. The other thing is that UConn might be on an uptick here with their come from behind win over Louisville last week. Teams that win in that manner often get a boost that lasts a few weeks. I also love the angle that many squares are using here that USF was the victim of bad officiating and Conn was the recipient of good officiating last week....and thus USF is really better than their loss last week and U Conn isn't very good. The linesmakers knew all this when they set the line, and sure enough, 82% of the public is betting USF here. However, the line has come down from the opening 5. Looks like another Sharps/Books vs. Public bettor situation. You know what side I'm on. Finally, and maybe most importantly, the public perception on these teams doesn't quite match the mathematical reality IMO. My linesmaking systems make this line from 1-3. I take the value as I find it.

last 2-2


ytd 12-17

chasing respectibility


Ball State +14 v. Illinois- I gotta take Ball State here, this will not be a trip to cupcake island for the Illini. Illini to win, but Ball State to hang in there or roar through the backdoor late.


Nebraska - Texas OVER the total at 58- The # is too high to take texas so Ill take the next best thing with Texas going up forcing nebraska to air it out with the Husker air assault, either way the over will hit here via Texas running it up or a shootout.

nevada -17' v. Idaho- buy it down to 17 if you can but ill even lay the hook here, I look for nevada to slam the hell out of one outmatched squad who have lost 6 in a row including a loss to NIU which is a team that is miserable. But hey, the vandals beat Cal poly this year.

Ohio State -3.5 @ PSU- I have no problem laying it here with OSU on the road, look for PSU to fold up the tent in the same manner they did v. Michigan. Happy Valley becomes valley of misery, Im not worried about buckeye on the road, this looks to be a statement game for Tressel and company

Mich State -3 v iowa- Iowas injuries, suspension, indictments are not new news, the 2 stater arrest from MSU is new news though...thing is the case v sirwhatever his name is was sent back to the cops 2 times for further investigation before felony approval so MSU has the spin doctors ready to keep the starters playing even if the guys are guilty as sin...no matter Ill take MSU to win by 7 here.

Edit- I'm an idiot.

New England -15 vs. Washington (Greek)
I'm going to do something I haven't done in a long time. I'm going to lay points with a double digit NFL favorite. I went back through my historical records and found that New England has the highest power rating of any team since I began doing weekly power ratings about 15 years ago. I'm still not sure I have the Pats set right. Sure they could have a clunker, especially in this "look-ahead" situation. I may also have the Skins ranked below others, but I'll take the value as I find it. It's also interesting that bettors are almost evenly split at 50/50 on this game. That's very unusual for a Pats game this year. The lookahead angle is very popular this week. The value is more popular for me.

San Fran +3 vs. New Orleans, -132 (MB)
I'm still not sold on Nawlins...on either side of the ball. San Fran gets Smith back and Gore should be closer to 100% this week. Looks like a good spot for the Niners to zig and the Saints to zag.

bodog still has SF at +3 -125. Not a huge difference, but still.

There is an old saying that if you like something and the price goes down, buy more. New England now 14.5 and falling. My portfolio today now includes some New England -15 and -14.

Cincinnati +4 vs. Pittsburgh, +102
Some times I make bets that my numbers say go but my brain says no. I've learned to trust my numbers more than my brain. Do I love Cincy as a team? Absolutely not. Do they have value in this spot as a home dog plus a + situation playing a Pitt team that has underperformed on the road and is now playing the 2nd of two straight roadies? Yep. This isn't a big bet but I think it's +EV.

2nd half bets
Bears -4.5 2nd half v. Detroit
Bears dominated first half; I'd expect the Bears to play a lot better 2h. It's possible Detroit may get a bit conservative sitting on a lead too.

Right now the moneyline on Indianapolis is +228 for next Sunday, +107 if you want the +4.5. I think both of those are great values, but I also thing that they are going to keep getting better, especially the moneyline. I think sometime around Saturday you're going to see a backlash, but until then the price for the Colts is going to get better and better, and for the Pats it will get worse and worse. I'm hoping the moneyline gets to about +275 or +300, and then I'm going to load up.

Yea, I cautisouly am drooling over the line and these values....

Long time lurker first time poster...
I dunno about moneyline against Pats. They've been on such a roll. I'd rather take the points in this close one, but not moneyline.

Reasons:
1. Pats have chip on shoulder, Indy is SB champs. That normally means nothing but attitue is a big part of defense.
2. Indy hasn't faced WR set with Brady never letting the ball hit the ground (or so it seems).
3. Harrison banged up. He normally plays, so it's a surprise he's sitting out, so I think it's more serious.
4. Richard Seymore - 2nd week back.