College Hoops Picks

This year, I will rate my college hoops plays from 1* to 5*, using this grading scale:
1*: Action worth playing as there is something about this play (situation, value) that makes it worthwhile, but I either don't know the teams that well or it's too early in the season to step out and make a normal play on it. I will probably have around 50 of these, most of them in November and December.
2**: A normal play that meets the normal play requirements. I will probably have around 150 of these.
3***: A better than average play with something special that makes it worth a little more. I will probably have somewhere around 10-20 of these.
4**** Best play of the month kind of play. I would guess now I might have about 5 of these all year.
5***** Best play of the year kind of play. I may or may not have any of these.


First play of the Year:
Gardner Webb - Alabama A&M OVER 140 1*
(at Lexington, Ky.)
Two pretty good teams that will be near the top of their lower division conferences. GW has gone to a fast, uptempo pace and this team usually has pretty good talent and typically gives somebody good a close game somewhere. A&M will surely play faster than it did last year with all 5 starters returning. The A&M coach has said he is going with his best offensive lineup on this somewhat deep team.

Record: 0-1, -1.1
Lesson remembered day 1. Overs are very dicey in teams' first games of the season because teams commit so many turnovers when facing real opposition for the first time.

Morgan State +26 @ UConn 1*, -103 (Matchbook)
Todd Bozeman's club has an experienced backcourt and a new transfer, Kately, from Cal, who could be the best player this year in the MEAC. Their inside guy, a transfer from Xavier, was somewhat dominant in last year's conference tourney. UConn will be experimenting with its backcourt and Calhoun promises to rotate several backcourt guys in and out. As UConn also seeks to play "faster", excessive turnovers would not be a surprise.

Kentucky-Gardner Webb OVER 133 1*
GW played a turnover fest yesterday which kept that total down, but both teams will likely willingly play a fast tempo here. First games are notorious for poor execution and turnovers. I'd expect a much better effort from both teams here. This isn't Tubby's Big Blue any more. Gillespie wants his guys to run and shoot. GW will go right with them.

Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 2-1, +0.9

Conn -16 vs. Buffalo, 2**
I was tied up and missed the opening 15.5, but this line is just wrong. I went against Conn last night, but here, I make this line 23...and that includes docking UConn 1 point in the PR for last night's result. Morgan was more athletic and experienced in the backcourt than this Buffalo team and was game against Conn's D and against Conn's big men. Don't think Buffalo will be as they didn't even handle Ohio Valley's pressure very well last night.

Yesterday: 1-0
Season: 3-1, +2.9

Cal Poly +6 (buy the half from 5.5 WA to -120 @ Greek) v. UMass, 1*
First of all, I buy off a half when a short number is on the half. I know some may take issue with that, but I've found this strategy usually pays off for me. I'm going to keep track and document it this season. I need to convert just one loss to a push every for every 10 buys I make (at 10 cents each, some may be less than that) that lose to make this a profitable strategy. I usually beat that threshhold. But I'll track it for myself and for those who might have questions about this strategy.

I make this line CP -1. My line could be off, of course and I may have undervalued Mass. But here we have two experienced, up tempo teams meeting on a neutral court. This will be a fast game and in a game dominated by the backcourts, my preference in this game is for the more experienced (if not productive backcourt). Mass will have an advantage in the paint with their 7 footer, but Shelton is a defensive warrior in the paint. Bonner and Brower will have to earn every point they get. Should be a fun near track meet to watch.

Note: When the totals come out about 2-3 pm today, I will immediately be jumping on the DePaul-Creighton first half under for 2** if the number is 59 or higher.

I have come to prefer first half unders to game unders, as they avoid the end game foul fest BS that burns so many game unders. For overs, I prefer the full game.

DePaul-Creighton 1st half UNDER 59-1/2 1st half (Greek) 2**
DePaul comes into this game with its usual array of decent talent (a couple of freshmen will see a lot of minutes), but will be looking for its go-to guys on offense to replace the consistent scoring it could count on from Mejia and Chandler the last few years. Wainwright’s teams have started slowly and their offense has seemed to start very slowly each year. Perhaps the reason is because Wainwright is one of those coaches who spends so much time on defense in October and November. And he has been doing that this year, focusing on pressure defense. Creighton also needs to replace its go-to guys Funk and Tolliver and will have four new starters overall. Altman is another coach who seems to emphasize defense early and with four new starters, I’d expect Creighton to be perhaps even a bit more deliberate on the offensive end than usual. I particularly like it here with two defensive-oriented coaches and so many new faces starting their first college games. Could be some butterflies early.

Iowa-Idaho State UNDER 57, 1st half (CRIS) 2**
Iowa just lost its point guard and most experienced and productive player, Tony Freeman, to an injury in their exhibition game. Now coached by former Butler coach Lickliter, the Hawkeyes will be deliberate (55 points in their exhibition game against a Div II team). But they will probably have to be deliberate because there is so little offense here. A walkon, Bohall, that Blue Ribbon said would not even figure into the rotation will be the starting point guard tonight in Freeman’s absence. The combined returning scoring of the four guys on Iowa who did play last year was under 15 ppg. Idaho State has to replace its three leading scorers from last year. The two returning starters have been role players. Strong lean to Idaho State +13, but I’ll just play the first half under with all these new players stepping into significant roles for the first time.

Fridday: 1-1
YTD: 4-2, +2.7

Wisconsin Green Bay +15.5 @ Ohio State 1*
This one is on ESPN 2 tonight, so if the football game becomes a bore you can watch the Phoenix try and hang with the Buckeye. Uggie Boogie is young and experienced. The Buckeye is young and inexperienced. Sure OSU has better talent, but this is their first real game of the year. I don't expect it to gell in this spot. I make this number 7.

Western Michigan at Oregon OVER 149 2**
Ducks love to run and gun at home and WMU won't try to slow them down. WMU played fast in the first two games and had 63 shots yesterday. Oregon could get close to a hun here if shots are dropping.

Monday: 1-1
YTD: 5-3, +3.6

Not sure how much interest there is in hoops here yet, but here is one I especially like tonight.

Illinois State - SEMO OVER 130 3***
New ISU coach Tim Jankovich is bringing an "uptempo attacking" style to this very talented ISU team. With shot totals over 60 in their first two games (one exhibition) it looks as if his players are adapting quickly. SEMO will play fast with them. SEMO was 21st in the nation in pace last year. At the same time, they were 319th (out of 336) in defensive efficiency last year. Looks like nothing has changed as Xavier hung 90 on them in their first game. Should be another game that hinges on shooting % (particularly for SEMO) as the pace of this game and shot totals should be plenty fast enough to take this over. This is a 3* play because I was willing to play this game over into the 140s.

North Carolina - Davidson OVER 164 1*
These are two of the fastest paced teams in the country, with UNC 9th and Davidson 12th in pace last year. Both teams are experienced, so I expect them to pretty much pick up where they left off flying up and down the floor Neither one of these teams will likely control tempo as their normal pace is fast. Like many teams, I expect these two teams' offenses to be ahead of their Ds at this point in the season. This one will likely hinge on shooting % on this neutral court as pace and shot totals should not be an issue.

The 3*** pick went OVER with 9 minutes to go. Gotta love it when a plan comes together. Another 3*** tomorrow. Very rare that I have two back to back like this, but I have to hit a bad number when I see one.

530 Connecticut -12.5 vs. Gardner Webb @ MSG 3***
Gardner Webb is a nice story and I enjoyed the hell out of their easy cover and outright winner over Kentucky last week. But they were 25 point dogs in that game to a Kentucky team that is at least 5 points PR below this Conn. team. Factor in the neutral court here and this line ought to be at least 20. Sure GW played way above that # against Kentucky, but they caught Kentucky breaking in a new offense and really struggling to find its way. Kentucky's offensive productivity that night was pitiful. Conn has no such issues, What they do have is superior athletic talent to match up with GW's shooters and superior size in the paint. Calhoun has surely gone to school to stop their spot ups and pick and rolls. I don't usually make three 3* plays in one week, but I've gotta hit a bad number when I see it. I'm buying this now on the overnights because I simply can't believe this number goes anywhere but up.

Coast, I hope you are not reluctant to post due to no one else having thoughts. Your work is appreciated and I would think people would be catching up in 2 weeks, after the college football regular season is over.

Ok, thanks. Mostly time constraints lately.

Tonight, I am playing Duke -6, -120 vs. Illinois and the Northern Illinois - Ind. State game over 134. Both for 1*. I may not post all my 1*, but will try to be sure to post the 2s and 3s.

Coast I'm reading I just haven't posted any thoughts back either.

Virginia -15 against Northwestern

Northwestern may be the worst big conference team in the nation without Coble. Virginia is particularly strong where northwestern has its limited area of strength. 15 is a lot of wood, but it is a nationally televised game at home in the big ten v. acc challenge.

Loyola +4.5 against Bradley

The Braves have had a nice beginning to their season. However, Loyola is always very tough at home. 4.5 seems a little heavy and I would not be shocked to see the Ramblers pull out a W here.

Old Dominion +7 against Georgetown

I think this number is high. ODU has inside size to match Hibbert and Georgetown is not overly impressive from the perimeter.

I also was on Virginia last night. Easy. I've been out of town and I killed my laptop so have been unable to post lately. I also had a lean to ODU. Good luck.

Light card tonight. I'm playing this....

Central Florida -7, 1st half, 1*
Lafayette makes this road trip to Orlando after taking the last 11 days off for Finals. Eleven days without a game can impart a little rust to a team, at least early in their first game back. Central Florida, on the other hand, is coming off a home loss to Mississippi last Saturday. I suspect they will come out of the box with a little fire in their eyes. This is a first half situational play expecting UCF to come out with a little bounce-back momentum and ULL to come out with a little rust. Hopefully, this combination will be enough to help UCF grab an early lead. I make this line 15 for the game, so I see this number as a fair one. I’m not interested in laying double digits for any game unless I’m backing a team that has demonstrated it can keep and extend big leads. UCF hasn’t quite done that to my liking so a play on UCF for the game doesn’t make the cut.

Wisconsin -13.5 at Wis-Mil

Milwaukee is the worst team in the Horizon. They have kicked their best player off the team and have already dropped their first two conference games against middle of the pack competition.

Drake -1 at Iowa

2-2 here so far. I don't like Iowa at all this year and I think they will get worse as the year progresses. Drake is going to make some noise in the MVC and Iowa has already lost to UNI. I LOVE Drake tonight

Good, err...I mean Bad Mahi Mahi, great call on this game. Is Dr. Tom still coaching Drake or did he retire last year? I think maybe his son took over. It's all very fuzzy....

It's all about good line shopping. I got Iowa +3 this morning. When Freeman played at UNI, they looked like a different team. I thought with him playing tonight, I'd take the perntz with the Hawkeyes and hope they play 6 points better than they did without him. He isn't doing much though...and the game is going to the wire. Maybe it will land drake 2 and we'll both win. And by the way Dolphin, the Hawks beat UNI at Cedar Falls in the only game Freeman played. Then he sat out last Saturday and they lost in Ames to ISU.

And by the way, Ryan, Dr. Tom's son Keno is the Drake coach. Who names their kid Keno anyway? If I'm going to name a kid after a gambling game, wouldn't Black Jack be a better choice?

Try to avoid "slot machine" for daughters.

Saturday: UIC +9 @ DePaul
The Demons were bickering among themselves the other night vs. Vandy. Their lack of discipline cost them in losing the lead vs. Vandy. They are way too undisciplined to back as chalk. Flames aren't as talented, but Jimmy will a lot more out of his bunch than Wainwright gets out of his. Wainwright will implore and his instruct his bunch, but as usual they probably won't listen to him.

3-2

St. Louis -8.5 against Loyola

I really do not like the way the Ramblers have been playing, and that has been at home. Loyola tends to crap the bed on the road and I expect them to do it again tonight.

Central Michigan -3.5 at Wis. Mil.

The news keeps getting worse for UWM. The leading rebounder and scorer has now been kicked off the team. I think I might play against them in every game until they prove me wrong.

Saturday
Texas +5 (buy 1/2) vs. Michigan State @ Palace of Auburn Hills, 2**
Texas' win in Pauley Pavilion is the most impressive thing I've seen this season. DJ Augustin is the best player I've seen this season. Will Texas play at that same high level today? Michigan State goes with Nietzel, and today, Nietzel has met his match in Augustin. UT should be able to match up reasonably well with Morgan et al. Can MSU handle UT's quicks on the offensive end? They have more scorers than MSU, so if one guy is off, the points can come from other places. I've seen stretches of games in which MSU goes to sleep, takes bad shots or just doesn't perform at the same high level. In games vs. Tennessee and UCLA, Texas seemed to elevate its game to the situation. And by my numbers, there is value here. I'm buying the half here to give me +5. This is the sixth half point buy so far this year (-0.5 u on buys). And for all the math whizzes who believe that buys do not make sense, all I can tell you is that over the last 10 or so years I've been doing buying halves, the strategy has been profitable when the number is under 10 and on the half.

Xavier -3 vs. Tennessee, 2**
Somebody just hit the VOls and moved X down to 3, so I'm grabbing it here, giving me even more value on X at this number. Tenn. now has a hole in the middle with Crews out and Chism struggling. IN fact, Pearl might start the freshman Williams in the post today. And that could be a big problem as X could handle UT inside and on the boards. Tennessee still doesn't look like they are in top tier form yet, particularly Lofton who has struggled all year. Lavender will certainly not give him any easy looks and will make him work on D. UT likes to turn people over, but X does not get turned over much (only 12/game). I'm throwing out the loss X had at Tempe last week. ASU played zone against X and X had a bad shooting night. Tennessee hasn't played any zone all year and doubtful it will here. X at home with that crowd coming off a bad loss should only serve to amplify their energy today.

i'm hitting 65% on all my hoops plays this year (all my hoops plays are at lvasports.com), but it seems like whenever I post something here, it loses. sorry to anyone that followed my two hoops plays today.