College Hoops Picks

Saturday 12-29
Drake-Wichita UNDER 129
Temple +9 vs. Florida
Troy +8 vs. Western Kentucky
Bama -12 vs. GW
West Va. -7 vs. Oklahoma

3-2 yesterday; One Sunday night total:

Chattanooga-Wright State OVER 134, 1*
This game matches a very fast paced team vs. a slow team. The number reflects a shading to the slow side. But will Wright State slow this game down or let it be played at the Mocs’ pace? Based on its previous games vs. fast teams, I suspect Wright will play faster than it usually does, as evidenced by previous games vs Marshall, Fullerton and Belmont. Even in the Fullerton game, a game in which Wright coach Brownell said beforehand that his Raiders would have to slow it down a little, the game had 136 possessions. Even if Wright tries to make this a half-court game, you can count on the Mocs to keep playing their game, which is keeping the pace fast, spreading out and firing treys. Neither one of these teams has a true post game, but both have guards that will slash to the hoop and draw fouls. That’s good for an over too. Defensively, Wright is respectable, but it allows opponents to shoot 39% from trey, meaning they have given opponents some good looks from outside. The Mocs will take any old look to fire the three ball, as that is a key part of their game. This line opened at 136 and came down two, with a move on Chatt too. Somebody apparently likes under. Wrong side move in my opinion. I looked and made a few calls to see if there was some injury to a Wright player last night that caused someone to bet Chattanooga and under, but haven’t found any.

Bought some more at over 132.5. Somebody likes under. Me vs. the market.

I used to worry about lines moving against me, wondering what it was I didn't know. This season with college totals, I've been right every time the market went the other direction. So I've just bought more at a lower price when that happened. This one with the Mocs wasn't even close. The market flipped me the bird and the market was wrong.

Thursday, Jan. 3

If the Ohio State-Illini total comes out above 125, I will be betting that game under.

Cleveland State -8 vs. Loyola Chicago, 1*
The number might be a fair one from a power ratings perspective, but the matchup and situation says CSU. The Loyola Ramblers have been run out by doubles in every road game. This young team just hasn’t learned how to compete on the road yet. Fundamentally, they don’t have a go-to guy, they don’t shoot particularly well and they aren’t great defensively. Cleveland State is well-coached and is playing at a higher level than last year...They will be looking to bounce back from their loss at Kent State a few nights ago. The Vikings beat Central Michigan and Youngstown by doubles in their last two home games, and those teams are better than Loyola.