College Football Picks, Sept. 6-8

Last week: 3-6

So. Miss +11 @ Tennessee (widely available)
Emotional factors are so huge in college football and this is not a good emotional situation for the Vols. There could be a hangover from the unexpected beating they took in Berkeley. Many teams have hangovers the following week after a bad loss. In addition, there might be a bit of lookahead for the Vols as they play Florida next week. Fundamentally, the Vols were disappointing in both running the ball and stopping the run vs. Cal. In both regards, this Vols team is considerably behind recent versions. Coker will be in the backfield here, but I don't consider that to be a significant factor for this spread. I make this number 8.5 based on the fundamentals and adding in the situation gives me enough room to make this a play. So. Miss has risen to the occasion of playing major teams in recent years and they could put a scare into the Vols here.

Air Force-Utah UNDER 48-1/2
Utah lost their QB (for about three weeks) and their RB (for the season) last week. The backup QB was very ineffective in the 2nd half (59 yards and 39% completions). Air Force hasn't discarded the triple option under its new coach, but they seemingly may throw more. Utes' defense is a tough bunch for the Force to face while breaking in a new offense.

hey coast2coast,

what's your take in these games:

MIDDLE TENN STATE +39.0 vs LOUISVILLE

OREGON STATE -3.5 vs CINCINNATI

Rutgers -16
Navy struggled with Temple, how are they going to handle Rutgers ?

Florida International/Oklahoma State over 54
If Joe Pa ran up 59 on FIU, OSU should have no problem scoring at will. OSU also has a swiss cheese defense.

Thestos, I don't play games with big lines like +39. I used to do it, but I usually guessed wrong. But, based on how MTSU played last week, it would be hard for me to take them against a team like Louie that likes to run up the score. I honestly don't even have a lean in that game.

The Oregon State game is interesting. The Beavers didn't look very cohesive on offense last week. A lot of errant throws and not particularly efficient offensively. They won that game in large part because of field position their defense gave them because the Utah QB was hurt and the Beavers controlled field position the 2nd half. The OSU defense is a pretty good one and will be the best unit on the field. They are very quick. They should cause significant problems for a Cincy offense that is making a significant offensive conversion from the Dantonio running game to the Kelly passing game. They weren't tested last week and the Beavers D will test them this week. I would lean to Oregon State and I think there is value in playing them (I make the number 5.5) in what I think will be a low-scoring game. I don't like laying points on the road though in such a contest, so I won't be taking either side here (at least at that price). I may play the under if I get my target number.

South Carolina-Georgia UNDER 45-1/2 (Greek)
What the Dawgs did in shutting down Okie State was darn impressive. The strength of SC is also going to be its defense (the Spurrier play calling notwithstanding).

Bowling Green +18 @ Michigan State
MSU's impressive win last week might make some people think this Sparty bunch will be much better than last. Maybe, but I don't think they are double digits better than Minnesota and Minny lost at home to BG last week. MSU's massive size advantage on the line will probably result in Sparty running the ball down BG's throat, but I expect the Mac boys to put enough on the board to hang inside the number.

last week 1-2 (not very good in that the col line moved to make it a push out with col if you didnt book early); hopefully I can make some noise here, but do not bet on it (man that is a funny pun there)

Vandy +3.5 v. Bama- Ill take Vandy and the points at home here. I feel Bama and Saban will not have easy pickings here. I look for Bennett to have a game here and Nickson should at least keep Vandy close enought to cover if they do not win it outright.

Bc - 13.5 v. NC State- The wolfpack was a team of perennial underachivers last year, (god knows they punished my bankroll). Ill take the flyer on QB ryan (5 tds v. wake last week) and put it on the eagles to roll here. Possibility of BC letting up here and not letting the team roll in deference to NC coach O'Brien. Ill still lay it here.

Auburn -6.5 v. South FLorida- Ill take the Tiger here to show the flat performance v. KSU (score did not reflect Tigers being placed in a position where they had to come off of the pace to make the # close). USF is dangerous, but Auburn rights the ship and takes it to them.

UCLA -7.5 v. BYU- Ill take the Bruin here, impressive start for bruin (cover), return 20 starters, BYU basicall held ASU scoreless last week. UCLA will have to contain Ungla, which I believe they can do.

Chus wrote:

Rutgers -16
Navy struggled with Temple, how are they going to handle Rutgers ?

Florida International/Oklahoma State over 54
If Joe Pa ran up 59 on FIU, OSU should have no problem scoring at will. OSU also has a swiss cheese defense.

Well I am an idiot. OSU is playing Florida Atlantic.

Virginia -17
Duke is just awful. They got blown out at home by UConn.

Cal -14
The Bears were very impressive last week against the Vols. I don't think the Rams can hang around in this game. Cal has the athletes and the team speed. You can't coach speed, unless of course, you are Don Beebe.

Chus, both of your picks I am taking to the booth today.