College & NFL Week 3 Bets

College: Last Week 2-3-2; YTD: 8-10-2
NFL: Last week: 7-2; YTD: 14-6-1

No plays Monday night. Leaned under at the opening number of 40.5, but won't play it at 38.

Notre Dame +14 vs. Michigan State
I only buy this early in the week when I think a number is going to drop or I want to lock in a key number. This is the latter case here. I don't know that people are going to be flocking to bet the Irish this week and drive the number down, but that wouldn't surprise me. The main reason for buying today though is that I'd much rather have a full 14 than a lower number. The downside risk is minimal...it this line goes up, 15 and 16 are fairly dead numbers any way so not much value is lost. And I will be shocked if they move this to 17 and risk a middle. I may be off on my ratings for Mich. State, but I make this line much lower. I have had MSU rated lower than the oddsmakers every week. But even so, they have not covered the oddsmakers' numbers the last two weeks, let alone mine. But this line is much higher than the difference the last two weeks. It has been set higher to reflect the public perception of ND. I know that nobody likely wants to touch Notre Dame this week considering their offensive ineptitude. If they can't score, how will they cover? And I suspect the media mouths will further fuel that public perception by over-stating the case. Yes, ND is bad this year...for ND. But they still are better than 40 or 50 of the 120 teams on the betting board. (48 to be exact by my numbers; I have ND ranked 72nd, with the same power rating as East Carolina, Stanford and Fresno St.). And, most importantly, the difference between ND and MSU on a neutral field is not 17+ points. For me, it's all about value. The public perception of ND has driven this number too high. Yes, I again have to bet a bad team to capture that value, but such is life in value-based sports betting. Over the long run, taking the value as I find it has worked just fine for me. The Irish are at home, and in this case I think worth more than 3 points. They are playing a much more forgiving defense than they've seen yet this year (yes, even more forgiving than Michigan and much easier than GT and PSU). I'm not calling for an outright upset (yet), but I do think ND will be able to move the ball and score on this defense. And I do believe it will be much closer than this spread suggests.

Why is 3 a sacrosanct value given to a home team. Is playing at Northwestern in front of 10,000 fans equally difficult to playing at the big house in front of 110,000?

You're right. Some college teams perform much better than 3 pts. home field advantage. I use a range of 2-6 to estimate spreads. In the pros, over the long term, various math analyses have shown the HFA to be almost exactly 3. Some teams may be above or below that in a given year, but the overall variation is smaller than the colleges.

NFL

Bears -3
Bears at home on national TV against an over-rated Cowboys teams. Dallas has played two awful teams and will not be able to handle the beloved.

Buffalo +17
I don't really like the Bills all that much, but this is way too many points for an NFL game. The Pats strong start has inflated the line a bit. These huge numbers rarely get covered.

San Francisco/Pittsburgh over 38
The Steelers have opened up the offense this year, and have scored 60 in their first two. The Niners offense is better as well, and they should easily get to this low number.

Denver -3
The Broncos haven't looked great in their first two, but Mile High is one of best home field advantages in all of sports. I will take the home team laying a field goal.


NCAA

Texas A&M/Miami, Fl under 47 (-120)
The Aggies love to pound the ball, and the Canes still have one of the best defenses loaded with athletes. Low scoring game, maybe 20-17.

I like your under pick. A&M runs and Miami stops the run. And not much impresses me about the Miami O. I missed the opener at 48 (all night craps games will do that to a guy) and hesitant to buy it after the best number has gone, but I'll probably be with you by gametime if the number doesn't drift lower.

San Diego -4.5

The sleeping giant wakes up this week, and the Chargers pound the Fudgepackers.

Tennessee/New Orleans over 45
The Saints offense will get back on track in a Monday night shootout. Vince Young will get his against an awful Saints D.

Green Bay +4.5, +106 vs. SD (Matchbook)
I guess I'll provide a contrary opinion here. "San Diego bounceback" is probably going to be a popular theme among handicappers this week. Perhaps, but something appears to be wrong with the Chargers' running game and the Packers' D is above average in that area. They might not shut down LT as NE and Chi did, but I do expect them to keep LT in double digits. I'm also not crazy about the Chargers pass defense. But that's handicapping. I'm not buying this based on handicapping. I'm buying it based on value. I make my own numbers on every game and compare that with two other guys whose power ratings and lines I respect. We all make this number 3 or lower. I'll take the overlay as I find it.

Last week 2-1

YTD - 5-5 (college only, my perfomance in the NFL contest is not in this, I dont pick NFL very well- hell I dont pick college well either)


Syracuse + 37 @ Louisville- this number is huge high. It is true that cuse is not a very effective team, but I look for them to score 20 points here, and cover the 37. Rage factor of the Ky loss has this line stacked up, but I think Cuse will keep it within 5 TDs. gettin shut out v. Iowa doesnt help matters, but they hung 20 agains tIllinois, louisville let middle tenn state score 42, ky score 40 and held murray state to 10, cuse and the points.

MSU- ND OVER 43- the MSU over didnt work well last week, but Ill try it again, ND shows an inability to stop anyone and miscues and turnovers should create oppotunities for this over to come in.

GA Tech -3.5 at Virginia- even without HB Choice, GT is loaded for bear here even without their stud HB, BC exposed them (BC is a great team), they will right the ship here against Virginia who had to squeak out the W versus a resurgient North Carolina team here (in 2006 it was 24-7 GT, look for the same here)


Penn State -2.5 at Michigan- holy cow, a road chalk in the Big House, you gotta be kidding me!!! No joke here, just a PSU squad that is hungry and motivated against a underperforming Michigan squad that the Nittany Lion can win against. PSU by 10 here as joe pa rolls his nittany lions to the big 10 title.

Green Bay - San Diego UNDER 43
I believe both of these teams have defenses better than their offenses and both look like good under teams (SD's meltdown against the best team in the league notwithstanding).

New York Jets -3 v. Miami
Value in the number as the market has discounted Clemons a bit. That's my main reason for playing this...playing the percentages with the undervalued team. But fundamentally, there was nothing wrong with Clemons' 4th quarter comeback against the Ravens. If Justin McCareins catches an easy TD pass, the Jets take that one to OT. And what would a win at Baltimore have done to this line? They were one dropped pass away from that. Miami's offense seems to still be struggling with the new Cam offense. Buying this one before I lose the key number.

Dallas +3.5 @ Chicago
This one is dropping and will go to 3 today. Might even drop below 3 by kickoff. I make this number 2 and I have not yet devalued the Bears for their much worse running game this season. Chicago lives on their running game and supposedly has a great defense, but KC outrushed the Bears. The loss of Mike Brown cannot be underestimated in its effect on the Bears run defense. I look for Dallas to do the same. And I love dogs who will likely outrush their opponents. When was the last time that Rex had a good game against a defense in the top half of the NFL or against a defense that can bring pressure? Seattle last year was really the only game that happened. Rex can perform against bad defenses. Can he perform against good ones? I'll take that bet. I'll probably have a moneyline bet on this one too as I believe Dallas will win this outright.

Penn State - Michigan UNDER 47-1/2 (Greek)
This one is dropping (46.5 elsewhere) so I'm locking this in. UM QB Mallett will probably be a very good QB some day, but in this, his 2nd start against a very good defense, I don't see it. I'd expect that UM will rely on its running game and not expose Mallett to the PSU pass rush. Michigan's defense had trouble in its first two games with mobile QBs who ran the spread offense and were threats to run or pass. Morelli is no such threat. He's not exactly a statue, but he is no threat to run. I think that will make the UM defense better able to defend PSU than it showed against Appy and Oregon. This one feels like a grinder/battle of field position with maybe a few big plays sprinkled in. First one to 20 wins.

Arkansas State - Tennessee UNDER 60
Cal and Florida put a whipping on Tennessee, but each of these teams are top ten teams with great offenses. The one middling team the Vols played was So. Miss and they only got into the end zone once (and had 4 FGs). I think we have a little value in this number after the Vols defense was shellacked by FLorida last week. Arkansas State is not Florida. In the past three seasons the Indians have scored 13, 0, 7, 10, and 17 points with an average of 287 yards in 5 games against BCS teams. The Indians do have a fine defense (for a Sunbelt team), ranking 2nd in D in their conf. last year. They did a respectable job against Texas earlier this season and I expect their defense to keep them within shouting distance of the Vols in this one as well.

Here is the rest of my Sunday card. These are mostly based on my perception of line value, though Carolina and Baltimore have ample reasons to be faded as chalk.

Denver -3 (Matchbook)
Atlanta +4 (Matchbook)
Oakland-Cleveland OVER 40 (WSEX)
Arizona +8 (Matchbook)

Conditional:
Cincy-Seattle Under (if I can get 51)
Houston (if I can get 7 or more)

Chus wrote:

NFL

[
Buffalo +17
I don't really like the Bills all that much, but this is way too many points for an NFL game. The Pats strong start has inflated the line a bit. These huge numbers rarely get covered.
.

Is that really true? It was my understanding that lines that are 9 or more get covered at an above average rate in the NFL.

NFL Double Digit Road Dogs:
SU: 78-375-0
ATS: 234-210-9 52.7%

NFL Double Digit Home Dogs
SU: 21-71-0
ATS: 48-40-4 54.5%

Total
SU: 99-446
ATS: 282-250-9

DD dogs in the NFL are marginally profitable against the spread, but they are terrible as moneyline bets. The next time somebody tries to sell you the silly notion that "just pick the winner, spreads don't matter" remember this data. In this sample going back x years (I don't know exactly how many years this is), the spread mattered in 183 of 433 games...or 42% of the games.

Michigan State -9-1/2, -115 vs. ND
Buying the hook here to take this to 9.5 and set up a 9.5/14 middle. The 14 is such a good price that I hesitate to hedge away that +EV. However, I make this number about 10.5, so I see value and +EV to buy both sides at these prices.

Houston +7
Green Bay +6

Found myself a Houston +7 and Packers now +6 so bought more Pack to take the value as I find it. The public likes the other sides. Are the home dogs going to be barking again? Is the public going to burn more cash on road chalk today?

Winning in the NFL is all about finding advantages. I think this is one.

New Orleans -4 2nd half (Widely available)
Down 3 at the half, this means I now am sitting on a New Orleans -1 ticket for the game. That's an advantage play in my book. And it's even more of an advantage if VY doesn't play.