NFL Bets, Week 2

2-1 Monday night; 7-4-1 in Week 1

Cincinnati -6.5 @ Cleveland (The Greek)
Charlie Frye is out in Cleveland and the Browns are apparently so unhappy with Derek Anderson or Brady Quinn that they are looking to sign Ken Dorsey and either make him the #3 or have him start this weekend vs. Cincinnati. Who the heck knows? I've already read two reports claiming one or the other. Bringing in a new QB with just a few days of practice and having him start, or firing your #1 QB after one week and putting the backup in are not the kinds of things good coaches do. If the Browns players quit on Crenell right now, it wouldn't surprise me. I (almost) never lay points on the road. This is an exception. I'm buying it now because I expect this to close at or above 7 by gametime on Sunday. This is not a bet ON the Bengals. They could have, should have and would have lost last night had it not been for that idiot Brian Billick calling the plays for Baltimore. It's a very tough situation to go on the road after a monday nighter. The Bengals showed me little to justify backing them as road chalk. But Crenell is showing me he has learned from Art Shell how to lose a team before the season hardly begins.

My enthusiasm for my Bengals bet has waned. As bad as the Browns looked last week, this is a tough spot for Cincy. I thought it would go higher setting up a middle opportunity across 7, but doesn't look like it's going to happen. I will probably buy back my Bengals bet by Sunday...hopefully at 7 but I'm not optimistic it will get there.

Arizona +3 vs. Seattle
This is the 2nd highest value on the board by my numbers and many sharps know it as this one is headed down to 2.5. So I'm buying it now. 86% of bettors are on Seattle, making this the kind of combination I'm looking for...value in the line, large majority of the public on the road favorite, yet sharp money is pulling the line the other way. I'm sure there are plenty of public bettors who saw the Arizona-SF game and thought "same old Cardinals". I think both of those defenses were pretty good. More to the point, it's the NFL. Remember last week and let it color your thoughts about this week at your own peril. The past is not necessarily a predictor of the future.

Bought the Browns at +7.5, setting up a middle at 7. I now have a middle and a net position on Cleveland that says that the 96% of bettors on this game who are betting Cincy won't be right today.

I'm playing all the under-valued ugly dogs today.
First group (1 unit): Arizona
2nd group (80%) Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Miami, Tennessee, NY Jets
3rd group (60%): Buffalo, Atlanta
4th group (40%): KC