College & NFL Week 4 Bets

Last week: College 2-2; NFL: 6-3-1
YTD: College 10-12-2; NFL: 20-9-2

Kansas City +13 @ San Diego (Greek)
I'm buying this on the Sunday night opener because I see value in this number and I don't expect this to be around next weekend. I'll either ride this bet through or middle it if it drops near 10.

Bears-Lions UNDER 44-1/2 (WA)
This is another one I don't expect to be around at gametime, so am buying it early. Is this number inflated due to the meltdowns of both defenses yesterday? I make this lower based on my numbers and even lower considering the matchup factors. Both Ds should have the edges over these Os.

Iowa-Indiana UNDER 44
Iowa is really hurting on offense, losing their best remaining WR Brodell and their TE Moeaki. Combined with the suspensions and other injuries, the Hawkeyes now have none of their two-deep in preseason at the receiver positions active for this game. Thus, I would expect them to be even more one-dimensional. They might be able to run against INdy, but unlike last week when Indy faced a run-pass team in Illinois, the Hawkeyes seem very one-dimensional for this one. However, I expect the Iowa D to shut down Indiana along the lines of what Illinois did last week. Beer nap special. (If you fall asleep in the middle of your third Saturday beer, you won't miss much). 20-10 taffy pull.

Penn State-Illinois UNDER 46-1/2
Upset alert here as the Illini very possibly could win this one. The spread of 3 is right on the money IMO. But I'm not ready to step out and predict an outright upset here. I do like the under and I think both defenses are better than the offenses. I like the way the Illini D played last week against Indiana. Penn State really doesn't impress me much on offense, but their defense will likely shut down the Illini just as they did Michigan. Remember, if Penn State had not fumbled last week on their own 10 yard line, Michigan would have scored only 7 points against them. For Illinois to win, Juice will need to make 3 or 4 big plays. He just might. Except for big plays, I expect the Ds to rule. Beer nap special #2. First one to 20 wins.

Arizona Cardinals +7, -120 (buy) WSEX
Detroit +3, -120 (Greek)
Arizona is the best NFL value of the week by my numbers. Before the season began, I ran through the entire Bears season predicting lines for each game and calculating % odds of winning each game. At that time, I predicted a line of Bears minus 2.5 for this game (and a projected 9.76 wins for the Bears' season). With the Bears' offensive line problems and cluster injuries on defense, my PR for them is now 2.5 points lower than it was before the season. I'll take the line value as I find it.

These are just the first of several dogs I plan to buy if I can get the desired prices.

UCLA-Ore State UNDER 55 (WSEX)
I guess this is my week for college unders. I like both of these defenses. Each of these teams has been blown out once, but in each case it was due to multiple TOs from the offenses. Both defenses are better than these Os. This one may resemble a Big Ten taffy pull, though UCLA does have a few guys that can make plays. The UCLA QB Olsen, though, isn't 100%. It will be interesting to see how he plays.

Here are the public betting stats for Week 4 as of Thurs. night. You know the NFL road favorites will be getting the action. How much so far? Here is every NFL game with the % picked on the majority side.

Oakland 57
Houston 88
Baltimore 65
Chicago 62
Green Bay 81
Dallas 84
New York 71
Tampa Bay 68
Seattle 66
Pittsburgh 87
San Diego 62
Indianapolis 79
Philadelphia 54

Parlay: Illinois +140 ML & Georgia Tech + 125 ML = +440.
Here is a moneyline parlay I'm playing this week with two 3 point home dogs. Illinois dominated Penn State on the stat sheet a year ago and this PSU team is not as good as that one. I think the Illini D can keep PSU to 17 or under. GT is coming off a loss at UVA and Clemson is rolling, but on the road a 2nd straight week. Time for Clemson to have a hiccup, and GT's D has the goods to keep the Tigers at bay.

North Carolina State +9 vs. Louisville
A very strong situation is playing against a college team after they have lost unexpectedly. Some bettors love to use the word "bounce back" after a loss, but kids just don't bounce back very well in most cases when they have had their season go up in flames. Had I had even a speck of confidence in Syracuse, I would have bet them vs. Louisville last week. Louie was coming off the rivalry loss to Kentucky. Now Louisville has a real hangover. They lost, at home, to Syracuse. Their season is now taking on a very different form than they expected. These kids were expecting a New Years' Day bowl game and a top 10 season perhaps. Now they aren't even in a Top 25. Heck, they didn't even get a vote in the Coaches' Poll. Kids are sounding a bit disenchanted. They're embarrassed and they really haven't impressed in any game yet. Columnists are already hating on the coach, who is not starting his Louie career with distinction. Today, one of their linebackers was kicked off the team for pot possession. Team turmoil hasn't covered a number yet, had to struggle to beat Middle Tenn and then lost to Kentucky and Syracuse. Now they are 9 point road chalk. Are they really very good, particularly on defense? NC State is woefully short on talent, but they do have a solid coach in O'Brien and they are catching Louie at a very good time and place. The Louie defense might be just the tonic to stimulate the Pack offense. It's also interesting that 91% of bettors are betting Louie here. You know what that means.

Atlanta +3 vs. Houston
Houston has had a nice start, but what the heck is this that they deserve to be a 3 point road favorite? This is clearly a public reaction to the Falcons' woes and the surprise Houston has dealt the first few weeks. This game is a classic case of a line being set based on public perception. Pick em is where I think it should be. Let's remember that Atlanta had that game won last week if the idiot Hall didn't get those three penalties for 67 yards on one freaking drive. That turned that game around. Carolina had no business winning that game. That wasn't a bad beat for me. It was a stupid one. And now 88% of the public are backing Houston in their first-ever game as road favorite? Figures.

I'e had a bad go of it this season so far, and I'm really going anti-public this weekend in my plays. This had better not be the one weekend a year Las Vegas hemorrages money, or I'm screwed.

= what I must now do

Coast2Coast wrote:

Atlanta +3 vs. Houston
Houston has had a nice start, but what the heck is this that they deserve to be a 3 point road favorite? This is clearly a public reaction to the Falcons' woes and the surprise Houston has dealt the first few weeks. This game is a classic case of a line being set based on public perception. Pick em is where I think it should be. Let's remember that Atlanta had that game won last week if the idiot Hall didn't get those three penalties for 67 yards on one freaking drive. That turned that game around. Carolina had no business winning that game. That wasn't a bad beat for me. It was a stupid one. And now 88% of the public are backing Houston in their first-ever game as road favorite? Figures.

great calls here Coast2Coast! Not to mentioned that despite how well the Texans have been playing, they are seriously banged up with 2 starting WR's out as well as it being very likely that Ahman Green can't go and Ron Dayne looks to get the start. I know that Atlanta haven't been stopping the run but....it's RON DAYNE. I'm taking Atlanta straight out this week.

ytd 7-7

last 2-2


ND over 54.5- Im with MacNeil on this one. ND will get to score some Tds here and puddue will score on ND(based on the fact that ND's defense couldnt stop Lincoln Way) - and we KNOW a Joe Tiller coached team will be hitting paydirt..over

Virginia -6 v. Pitt- Pitt was absolutely horrendous last week v. Conn. Virginia looks like they are for real sports fans, ill switch over from last weeks analysis from their game against North Carolina and try to ride them on this one.

Hawaii -25 @ idaho- I do not like laying that much on the road, but the rainbow warrior has scored no less than 45 v tepid opposition (UNLV is the only class [and I use the term loosely] they played); however, Idaho gave up 42 to a rebuilding NIU squad, 45 to washing state and the relatively impressive ,for the vandals, loss by 28 v USC was 3 weeks ago. Ill take the colt show to light em up

ND-Purdue OVER 54 (Greek)
I will endorse and play one of Sabu's here as it's been on my list all week too. I found it a tick lower this morning at 54. Purdue has been a favorite over play for me during the Tiller years, but I was hesitant to play it against the lame and the halt teams that they've faced the first three weeks of the season. ND may not score much, but hopefully they'll get 10-14. Purdue should be good for 40+ on their own.

UL Monroe +13 @ Troy (Matchbook)
Monroe has faced three top 50 teams and is now dropping down in class to face the best in the Sun Belt. Monroe's problem is size and Tulsa, A&M and Clemson each wore them down in the 2nd half. Troy has an impressive passing offense, but they also have the worst rushing defense in the country and now has to stop a team with everybody back on an offense that exploded past Sun Belt competition the last few weeks of last year. Monroe should out-rush Troy and dogs who win the rushing stats have been a consistent 70% + ATS angle.

Other NFL picks today:
Buffalo +3 EV
Minnesota ML EV
Giants +3, -120
Still waiting to see if I can find a SF +3 and a better number than 11.5 on the Chargers to middle that Chiefs +13.

GL all.

You and I are in almost perfect agreement. You have been doing well, and I have been doing poorly, so either your luck is going to rub off on me, or I'm going to drag you down to the wagering Sheol I've been stuck in all season.