STUN Panel NFL Picks

You see, my strategy is to not watch any NFL at all - honestly, I haven't even seen a highlight for around 4 weeks. Damn school.

Picks page for Week Eight is up.

Everyone is picking the Bears to beat Detroit this week and I DON'T LIKE IT!! They only seem to win when none of you thinks they will, so I will officially declare them doomed.

The Bills are surprisingly getting the unanimous vote this week along with the Patriots, Titans, Giants and Colts.

We are a house divided on Pittsburgh vs Cincy and Denver vs Green Bay. Three on either side of the fence there.

And after having five 5 vs 1 disagreements last week, we only have one this week. Simmons is the only one among us who thinks the Niners can beat New Orleans. There are a few 4 vs 2 games this week though.

But with all of the across the board agreements I don't know how much, if any movement there will be in the standings. We'll have to wait and see.

I'll be at Soldier Field for the game, section 106! They better not disappoint.

I've actually been waffling about the Bengals/Steelers game. The boys do better at Heinz Field in recent history...

But then I remember that it's the Steelers, and they can get bent.

I don't think I'll be divorcing my emotions from my pick process anytime soon.

STUN.Ryan wrote:

I don't know. Drake has a heart of pure cold, yes cold. He is able to completely remove himself of any personal feelings towards the teams and evaluate the games more unbiased than anyone in the history of the world.

Really? You don't know anybody else who is totally unbiased at picking winners of games?

I'm in another weekly pick winners contest on yahoo with a bunch of guys from chicago (a few who are on this site occasionally). I know, we're not part of your contest. But it's fun to compare how we do against the budding "underground" media represented on this site.

Oh yeah. I have a two game lead on you.

Coast, I know you are capable of the same. I just can't help myself on two games a week. I have no problem picking against the Colts and have in the past and been wrong. My problem is sometimes I can't shake weird feelings aI have about a certain team that week when it makes no sense and Drake is also able to shake that off....from what I gather by listening to him.

As I said before, no one should call anyone on here an expert in picking games. In general, is anybody at all? Doubtful. I think we've looked like a pretty bad choosers of predicting winners these year. I'm not surprised if your entire group is beating this panel by two games!

I understand, Ryan. Fans have what I call the "home fan disadvantage" in picking winners. Most fans overstate both the good and the bad associated with their teams. Last week, for example, coming off a loss, few Bears fans liked them to win at Philly. This week, after a win, most Bears fans love them. That's the problem with trying to pick winners based on your perspective as a fan. Most fans are rarely in sync with the ebb and flow of a typical season from a mediocre team. And the NFL this year has two great teams and a few very bad teams. Everybody else in the middle is a blob of mediocrity. It's a typical NFL season in that regard.

Psychologists call it the "recency" effect, which basically means people respond most to what they saw last. Most people who try to pick winners are most influenced by what they saw in last week's games. It's the same principle that political types use to get yard signs as close as possible to the polling place and why they buy huge amounts of ad time the last two days before an election.

Forget "recency" in picking NFL winners. When I see somebody talking about picking a team based on what they did last week I see somebody who doesn't quite get it. I prefer what I call the Jack Buck principle when it comes to picking the NFL: "I don't believe what I just saw". Or if you prefer, think of most NFL teams, outside the very best and the very worst, as a bunch of zig zaggers. If a mediocre team zigs one week, then they will likely zag the next.

Good luck this week to all of you, whether you subscribe to recency, Buck, zig/zag, your own special formula, or picking winners by throwing darts.

Here's recency for you Coast. Last year when the Colts got blown out by the Jags, I stated on our NFL Recap show at the time that the thing I learned from the week was "The Colts will not win nor go to the Superbowl this year. No doubt about it."

However, when I pick I'm not a recency guy. Case in point my Niners pick this week. This is that "gut feeling" pick that usually get me in trouble unless it's the 2005 Bills who I picked well I think? Maybe not. Whatever.

Ryan, you and I both had a gut feeling about the Niners. That wasn't just wrong. It was horribly bad wrong. So does that make us gutted or gutless?

This is what I am talking about. I do this to myself constantly. I think we're gutted.

That's why I hesitate to say anything about colts-pats.

Oh my! how are you going to go on that one, Ryan?? That will be interesting...

Not a good week for Golden Boy. 8-5 at best, if the Pack can win tonight. Down a bit from a stellar week last week. Ya just never know.

Unless you're Dave Drake. The stone-cold, heartless pick maker.

:-)

I knew you'd agree with me Greg!

Bad week for me.

If the Pack win tonight, I will have won all three disagreements with Simmons and pull even with him in the standings.

Never thought I'd be hoping for a Packer win....

I think I need to go lay down.

Why are you obsessed with beating me

I;m obsessed with winning period, but because Dave Drake got the Jags/Bucs game right, I'll still be a game or two behind him in the standings.

You're just the next rung on the ladder to the top of the standings.

It's just that it's always Simmons, simmons, simmons! I'm scared of my well being in this!

Week Eight picks results are up and Dave Drake hangs onto the top spot, but our favorite Aussie Max is nipping at his heels only only game out of the top spot!!

Dyer and Simmons are knotted up in third place with identical 72-44 records. Dyer was able to catch up to Simmons by winning all three of the disagreements between the two. Dyer was 10-3 and Simmons had the STUN Panel's worst record this week, 7-6.

Greg Campbell had the Panel's second worst record this week, 8-5, which landed has him all alone in fourth place.

Who Dey and Promotions both went 10-3, well so did everybody except Greg and Simmons actually, anyway, there stellar records didn't give them much help as they are both bringing up the rear with Promotions two games better than Who Dey in the standings.

I am interested to see how Week Nine's picks shake out especially to see who you guys think will win Super Bowl 41 1/2 on Sunday between the Pats and Colts.

I like Indy, how will the rest of you go? Tune in Friday to find out!!

Week Nine's picks are up and the Game Of The Century is a 3-3 split for the panel. Dyer, Simmons and Campbell think the Colts will take it. Drake, Who Dey and Promotions like the Patriots.

In a surprising move, Greg Campbell stands alone on the Seattle/Cleveland game.....and he's taking Seattle!!

Who Dey and I are going against the panel in three games this week. We like Cincinnati over Buffalo, Carolina over Tennessee and New Orleans over Jacksonville.

But Who Dey stands alone against the entire panel in the Arizona/Washington game and Simmons is the lone dog who likes Atlanta over the 49ers.

Will all over the disagreements amongst the panel, there will definitely be some movement in the standings this week. Good luck!!

The 9ers done pissed me off from last week's piss poor performance.

So, it was not a good week for my picks! I just tallied everything up for fun (sorry to get ahead of you there, Larry...) and I finished at the bottom this week... 5-7 so far, we all picked the same though on the final two games of the week.

All I have to say is, if the Seahawks could hold onto a 21-3 lead!!!! I'd be tied for the BEST record of the week with Dave, Ryan, and Hyacinth at 6-6. (Since I was the only one who took Seattle in that game)

Ouch.

Crazy games today... Detroit put a whoopin on Denver... I thought they were supposed to be good? Plus, who could have seen the hurt the Vikings put on the Chargers?? 296 yards for the rookie??? Holy cow!

AND, the Colts ... what happened? They controlled that game, even with several missing pieces (injuries) ... and gave it up in the end. I must say, I have never hated the Patriots more.

All for now... just had to maybe vent a little. Had some picks that looked good for a while today, only to be looking at .500 for the weekend at best!

Oh well... there's always next week!

(AND... my Bills looked AWESOME today!)

(Sorry Hyacinth...)

I'm confused. I'm 8-5 Greg

STUN.Ryan wrote:

I'm confused. I'm 8-5 Greg

Well, you were 7-5. (Before Dallas destroyed Philly.) At that point, had Seattle won, you would have been 6-6, and I would have been 6-6. Then, we both would have been 7-6, having both picked Dallas.

BUT, none of that really matters, cause it didn't happen that way

I just thought it was crazy how that one game turned out.

Sorry for the confusion.

My bad. I'm confused and feel like a beat up boxer from yesterday's game.