Week 12 Football Picks

Turkey Day picks. Buying early on the home dogs before the price moves against me.

Detroit +3.5 v. Green Bay
This isn't so much about Detroit and how they play at home as it is that this game feels like one that Green Bay possibly could mail in. It probably feels like life or death for Detroit. Green Bay, not so much.

Atlanta +11.5 v. Indy
With the injuries to the Colts, they probably would just like to get through this short week/game alive. Another somewhat meaningless game for the Colts on the way to December and the playoffs.

I will have to really take a look at those because off the top of my head I'd go the other way on both. Green Bay can wrap up the Central with a win. I see them taking it to Detroit and then snoozing through December.

I was all over Atlanta early in the year to my benefit with several covers. I just cannot go to that well again. They have practice squad players starting on the OL. They have dissension on the team and it is a short week.

Still, you probably could make yourself some money over the years by taking home dogs on Thanksgiving.

Detroit +3.5 I'm playing this Turkey Day Special for Three turkeys, two drumsticks and as much stuffing as you can fill into a bank bag.

On further review, Detroit will be a LARGE play for me. I liked it already, but the more I read and hear and especially the straight square media "logic" about which team supposedly "needs" this game more....well that's the kind of media-fueled linear thinking that often leads the lambs to slaughter. That is not why I like Detroit; it's just that nonsense that keeps giving us an even better price. This is a great spot for Detroit, home dog coming off a loss against a team that has covered FOUR in a row TWICE already this season. It's those kind of week-to-week NFL trends that make more sense to me than the media rationale about "wanting it more". The real question for me is that with Dallas up next week, can Green Bay give top effort for the fifth week in a row, on the road, against a division rival that has little or no chance of catching them? It's all about mental energy. Not sure how much GB is going to have, while Detroit at home coming off a loss will have gobs of it.

I could be wrong about this, I often am. But I have stepped out on this one. It's not nearly my largest play of the year, but it is in the top 5 football bets I've made this year.

Bears-Broncos OVER 41
The Bears defense appears to be showing signs of a late-season swoon. They look like they're running out of gas. Tommy Harris isn't right, the pass rush is a step or two slower and the secondary...well any secondary that gives any playing time to Trumaine McBride and Alan Archuleta is a secondary that isn't playoff caliber. At the same time, Cutler appears to be finding his stride. Marshall is a tough matchup for the Bears smallish secondary. Could be burnt peanut on the menu Sunday. And Denver can gouge the Bears in the run too. However, this Broncos secondary is as beatable as they've had in some time too. And high risk/high reward Rex Grossman is a great QB for an over. He likely will make a big play in the passing game (since that's all he seems to be able to do is wing the long one). The clueless one likely will throw a pick or have a fumble that will lead to points for Denver. We also had a Cedric Benson sighting, though it's not Benson that's the major problem...it's the horrible offensive line that couldn't block their wives from the pumpkin pie.

Quote :

...it's the horrible offensive line that couldn't block their wives from the pumpkin pie.

ZING!

Coast2Coast wrote:

Turkey Day picks. Buying early on the home dogs before the price moves against me.

Detroit +3.5 v. Green Bay
This isn't so much about Detroit and how they play at home as it is that this game feels like one that Green Bay possibly could mail in. It probably feels like life or death for Detroit. Green Bay, not so much.

Atlanta +11.5 v. Indy
With the injuries to the Colts, they probably would just like to get through this short week/game alive. Another somewhat meaningless game for the Colts on the way to December and the playoffs.

OK. I am with you on Detroit. You will have to go with Atlanta on your own. I think Indy covers this line easy. Indy is a difficult O to prepare for. On a short week I think an uninspired Atlanta team lets them run up and down the field. I also believe Atlanta will score some points with a rejuvinated Dunn and Harrington with another chance. Take the over.

The Atlanta bet will just provide a little adrenaline to counteract the tryptophan. Nothing like waking up from a turkey coma/nap asking "did I win"?